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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


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Alright peeps, we are getting inside the 5-day period and pretty much all the models are in agreement of a potent hybrid PAC wave that will track S/SE from Saskatchewan CA through the MW/GL's region late this week into the weekend.  This system will be a slow mover as it interacts with a strong Hudson Bay "HP" centered over Ontario.  Let's discuss...

 

0z Euro...shifting farther SW this run...

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This system appears to be moisture laden pulling up GOM moisture and could also (depending on the track) bring some lake influence into SE WI/NE IL....lots of time to figure out these finer details.  

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0z GEFS mean...some hefty hitters showing up...

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0z EPS....Impressive jump in the overall coverage and snow mean totals region wide....LEHS signal showing up for the western shores of LM...

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DMX skeptical of the SW guidance and higher amounts. 

The most significant weather system to monitor in the forecast is
scheduled to impact parts of the Upper Midwest Friday as an area of
low pressure arrives. This is not a straight forward system as the
this low is more of a clipper system while a trough will extend
south to another low pressure center over Texas. The deterministic
GFS and ECMWF solutions are quite robust with the amount of
precipitation south of the northern stream low. This precipitation
seems even more extreme given the Gulf moisture will be cut off for
much of the end of the week with a high pressure ridge set up along
the Gulf coast and only limited return moisture is possible and
there will only be a limited mid-level moisture connection to the
Pacific stream. The ensemble mean solutions are more reserved with
precipitation amounts and the southward extent of this
precipitation, which seems to make more sense given the scenario.
Obviously the spatial positioning of the low is uncertain and could
shift south especially if the southern stream low becomes dominant
which will be dependent of on the track of the upper level short
wave. Regardless, colder air will spill southward for Saturday
followed by a slightly warmer Sunday. Another system does appear to
arrive late Sunday into Sunday night which will bring another round
of cold advection and possibly light snow.
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GRR thinks there may be snow over the weekend, or not.  But if there is, it will be somewhere and some amount, but none of the models are consistent, so this is a wait and see, because they have no clue.  

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Not too much detail yet, but the DVN is starting to discuss some potential:

 

Quote
With the jet and mid level baroclinic zone in close proximity
we`ll have the potential to be somewhat active weather-wise with
possibly a few clipper systems. Models though are struggling with
consistency in timing, track, magnitude of these just beyond mid-
week into the weekend, especially these low amplitude waves which
get dampened out by models beyond a few days and correspondingly
the blend runs dry. Thus, we could have some precipitation chances
to monitor for Wed-Thu based on various guidance, but a stronger
wave is leading to a more prominent signal for precipitation
potential Fri-Sat. This system looks to be the one worth
monitoring during the long term for rain/snow, especially given
the hints of phasing and an amplifying upper trough in the
presence of near to slightly above normal PWATs.

 

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The UK has shifted even farther west.

image.thumb.png.972dd78de2fad44be053c4ed85ea6e1d.png

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GEFS mean...there appears to be a secondary wave that follows this clipper on its heels that could drop an additional 1-3"....looking quite impressive at this range...might have to extend the dates a couple days...

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Wow, the Euro is super hot this run.... has a strong H5 low taking the perfect track through Iowa.... widespread 8-12" of snow.

image.thumb.png.d8a7020a97d6a99cbbe9fff413e25e0a.png

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Wow, the Euro is super hot this run.... has a strong H5 low taking the perfect track through Iowa.... widespread 8-12" of snow.

image.thumb.png.d8a7020a97d6a99cbbe9fff413e25e0a.png

Hey can you tell me when the Euro has the snow entering central IA? I have travel plans so just looking ahead. 

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1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Hey can you tell me when the Euro has the snow entering central IA? I have travel plans so just looking ahead. 

Central to east-central IA, the snow begins late morning and is heavy from noon through evening, ends late night.  This is still 4-5 days away, though, so details will change.  Heck, it's possible we'll get little or nothing.

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, East Dubzz said:

I believe the GFS is a little slower with the storm, correct?

It appears to be just a few hours slower.

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If we end up close to an edge, I'd much rather be on the ne edge.  The sw edge will be wet and sloppy.  Even in the middle of the snow band, this morning's op Euro has the temp in the low 30s during the early part of the event.

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DVN's afternoon discussion is talking the system up more, but it's too early to jump on any track/strength.

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is one notable change on the 00z NAM.  The southern piece of the energy that moves into the pacnw coast is out ahead of the northern piece, so it gets pulled in together with the northern piece.  That was not the case on previous runs.  On the Euro, the southern piece splits off and gets pulled south into California.

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it.

Hope your feeling better, it's good to see ya back on.  You can send your snow to Missouri we can't buy a flake.

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00z GFS still all in... even a bit farther west this run with central Iowa now getting the heaviest.  The closed H5 low actually dives south through NE and KS, so way west.  Once the low leaves Iowa, the snow just dies.

image.thumb.png.4f40259404b8db0bb04c1f6bbff7aec2.png

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GFS still all in... even a bit farther west this run with central Iowa now getting the heaviest.  The closed H5 low actually dives south through NE and KS, so way west.  Once the low leaves Iowa, the snow just dies.

image.thumb.png.4f40259404b8db0bb04c1f6bbff7aec2.png

I still feel this thing goes back east a bit but wow....I can't dial it up any better for mby. And it's a daytime event leading into the weekend. Long way to go yet

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57 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it.

Seen your post in the other thread. Thinking of ya. You will pull through 🙏

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The UK is still the farthest west.

image.thumb.png.42c461ddf2c13b616cdc4d730899c97c.png

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The consistency amongst the 3 model runs so far tonight for Des Moines area should have me excited, as they are all incredibly similar.  However, this far out, I fear a shift say in about 24 to 36 hours on the models. Burned too many times, but one can hope

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After a lengthy delay, the Canadian is now running again.  It's much farther sw this run, big for central and even western Iowa.  Maybe this thing could end up in Omaha.

image.thumb.png.62df119f16077627347750c0837f18a0.png

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro gets interesting for Omaha/Lincoln and down to KC. Could be a fluke because it much further northeast and stronger at 12z. 

ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-2269600.thumb.png.2ee20352d1b37cec8598b2adf7c2ebac.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 2.3" (so far)

Average: 26"

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Sheesh... latest Euro is so far west that Omaha and KC get more snow than Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It will be interesting reading the morning AFD's-- DMX last AM (as mentioned by James) shunned at the SW moment. The PM shift wasn't as skeptical. Still a long ways out- but Jim Flowers on Fbook had an interesting take in that it's not the trough that comes in for placement - but the backing of the ridge in the W.  At this range- it makes more sense then actual totals etc--- and that the troughs will set up where they do based on retrograde of the Far W ridge. Lots of changes for sure.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00Z Euro Kuchera-  at this rate W I'am outta of the pic on the NE side. One would think change back E- but this is such a hybrid- who knows.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It seems like these strong systems diving south/southeast end up further west/southwest the closer we get 

I hope your correct. But what previous events do you have to back that up? Just seems to me that most of the precip events this winter have E and NE of the E.NE area--- if the pattern is changing as much as JIm Flowers says- I think OMA/LKN area is golden, ( hope you guys score) this must mean a pattern change as most of E.NE has seen little or nothing for precip in some time.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it.

I hope for a speedy and healthy recovery my friend.  Sorry to hear that your feeling under the wx.  So many have been sick in my circle its friggin nuts.  I've never seen this before in my lifetime.  If there was anything that helped it was this product that I used www.C-60.com.  Check it out if you have time.

Meantime, models have trended in the wrong direction for MBY....the blocking is notably stronger across Ontario...that deepening Nor'Easter is certainly amplifying the Block in SE Canada!

0z Euro...heck, this may end up being a very rare hybrid clipper that "shares the wealth"....looks like I'll just get some lake effect influence if trends continue...this system reminds me vividly of a similar clipper that tracked in similar fashion in March of '20 or '21 where IA got blasted and we got flurries.  Can't remember the exact year but looks very similar.

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0z GEFS seem to be tightening things up a bit and continue the SW/S shift....meanwhile, it continues to show some hefty hitters....this is through midday Sunday...

 

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Then the secondary piece adds a couple more inches a bit farther N/NE for those who get missed...snow ratios should be on the higher/fluffier side and like @james1976mentioned...what beats a weekend/daytime snow day!

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