Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Alright peeps, we are getting inside the 5-day period and pretty much all the models are in agreement of a potent hybrid PAC wave that will track S/SE from Saskatchewan CA through the MW/GL's region late this week into the weekend. This system will be a slow mover as it interacts with a strong Hudson Bay "HP" centered over Ontario. Let's discuss... 0z Euro...shifting farther SW this run... This system appears to be moisture laden pulling up GOM moisture and could also (depending on the track) bring some lake influence into SE WI/NE IL....lots of time to figure out these finer details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 0z GEFS mean...some hefty hitters showing up... 0z EPS....Impressive jump in the overall coverage and snow mean totals region wide....LEHS signal showing up for the western shores of LM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 06z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 I'll be in Des Moines Friday and Chicago Saturday. Should be fun driving conditions. Wish I was home for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 DMX skeptical of the SW guidance and higher amounts. The most significant weather system to monitor in the forecast is scheduled to impact parts of the Upper Midwest Friday as an area of low pressure arrives. This is not a straight forward system as the this low is more of a clipper system while a trough will extend south to another low pressure center over Texas. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF solutions are quite robust with the amount of precipitation south of the northern stream low. This precipitation seems even more extreme given the Gulf moisture will be cut off for much of the end of the week with a high pressure ridge set up along the Gulf coast and only limited return moisture is possible and there will only be a limited mid-level moisture connection to the Pacific stream. The ensemble mean solutions are more reserved with precipitation amounts and the southward extent of this precipitation, which seems to make more sense given the scenario. Obviously the spatial positioning of the low is uncertain and could shift south especially if the southern stream low becomes dominant which will be dependent of on the track of the upper level short wave. Regardless, colder air will spill southward for Saturday followed by a slightly warmer Sunday. Another system does appear to arrive late Sunday into Sunday night which will bring another round of cold advection and possibly light snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 GRR thinks there may be snow over the weekend, or not. But if there is, it will be somewhere and some amount, but none of the models are consistent, so this is a wait and see, because they have no clue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not too much detail yet, but the DVN is starting to discuss some potential: Quote With the jet and mid level baroclinic zone in close proximity we`ll have the potential to be somewhat active weather-wise with possibly a few clipper systems. Models though are struggling with consistency in timing, track, magnitude of these just beyond mid- week into the weekend, especially these low amplitude waves which get dampened out by models beyond a few days and correspondingly the blend runs dry. Thus, we could have some precipitation chances to monitor for Wed-Thu based on various guidance, but a stronger wave is leading to a more prominent signal for precipitation potential Fri-Sat. This system looks to be the one worth monitoring during the long term for rain/snow, especially given the hints of phasing and an amplifying upper trough in the presence of near to slightly above normal PWATs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 6z Euro Control 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z GFS has shifted significantly SW from the 00z run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 GFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Models are also showing another clipper on Sunday although more northeast and a bit weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Canadian has the Friday clipper more northeast of the GFS and Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 The UK has shifted even farther west. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: 06z GEFS... I will take Ensemble #6 for $1000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z GEFS mean...there appears to be a secondary wave that follows this clipper on its heels that could drop an additional 1-3"....looking quite impressive at this range...might have to extend the dates a couple days... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Lock the GFS in; Uk needs to chill. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Wow, the Euro is super hot this run.... has a strong H5 low taking the perfect track through Iowa.... widespread 8-12" of snow. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Wow, the Euro is super hot this run.... has a strong H5 low taking the perfect track through Iowa.... widespread 8-12" of snow. Hey can you tell me when the Euro has the snow entering central IA? I have travel plans so just looking ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Hey can you tell me when the Euro has the snow entering central IA? I have travel plans so just looking ahead. Central to east-central IA, the snow begins late morning and is heavy from noon through evening, ends late night. This is still 4-5 days away, though, so details will change. Heck, it's possible we'll get little or nothing. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Hawkeye said: Central to east-central IA, the snow begins late morning and is heavy from noon through evening, ends late night. I believe the GFS is a little slower with the storm, correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, East Dubzz said: I believe the GFS is a little slower with the storm, correct? It appears to be just a few hours slower. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Cool....thanks! The quicker arrival wouldn't surprise me. These type of systems always seem to move in quicker than modeled. They also can bring those heavier totals so im not suprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Kuchera ratios 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z control shifted further west 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 If we end up close to an edge, I'd much rather be on the ne edge. The sw edge will be wet and sloppy. Even in the middle of the snow band, this morning's op Euro has the temp in the low 30s during the early part of the event. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looks like a no go over this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 DVN's afternoon discussion is talking the system up more, but it's too early to jump on any track/strength. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 18z GFS 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Very active and frigid for many as the PV gets disrupted: 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Local met Schnack just showed the in house model and had snow covering much of east and central IA by 6am Friday. He also said locally heavy amounts possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 There is one notable change on the 00z NAM. The southern piece of the energy that moves into the pacnw coast is out ahead of the northern piece, so it gets pulled in together with the northern piece. That was not the case on previous runs. On the Euro, the southern piece splits off and gets pulled south into California. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it. Hope your feeling better, it's good to see ya back on. You can send your snow to Missouri we can't buy a flake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 00z GFS still all in... even a bit farther west this run with central Iowa now getting the heaviest. The closed H5 low actually dives south through NE and KS, so way west. Once the low leaves Iowa, the snow just dies. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z GFS still all in... even a bit farther west this run with central Iowa now getting the heaviest. The closed H5 low actually dives south through NE and KS, so way west. Once the low leaves Iowa, the snow just dies. I still feel this thing goes back east a bit but wow....I can't dial it up any better for mby. And it's a daytime event leading into the weekend. Long way to go yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it. Seen your post in the other thread. Thinking of ya. You will pull through 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The UK is still the farthest west. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The GEFS mean centers on eastern iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The consistency amongst the 3 model runs so far tonight for Des Moines area should have me excited, as they are all incredibly similar. However, this far out, I fear a shift say in about 24 to 36 hours on the models. Burned too many times, but one can hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 After a lengthy delay, the Canadian is now running again. It's much farther sw this run, big for central and even western Iowa. Maybe this thing could end up in Omaha. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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