Jump to content

Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom

Recommended Posts

It will be interesting reading the morning AFD's-- DMX last AM (as mentioned by James) shunned at the SW moment. The PM shift wasn't as skeptical. Still a long ways out- but Jim Flowers on Fbook had an interesting take in that it's not the trough that comes in for placement - but the backing of the ridge in the W.  At this range- it makes more sense then actual totals etc--- and that the troughs will set up where they do based on retrograde of the Far W ridge. Lots of changes for sure.

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z Euro Kuchera-  at this rate W I'am outta of the pic on the NE side. One would think change back E- but this is such a hybrid- who knows.

image.thumb.png.14b033718fb5465fc5c8dabb8332af3a.png

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It seems like these strong systems diving south/southeast end up further west/southwest the closer we get 

I hope your correct. But what previous events do you have to back that up? Just seems to me that most of the precip events this winter have E and NE of the E.NE area--- if the pattern is changing as much as JIm Flowers says- I think OMA/LKN area is golden, ( hope you guys score) this must mean a pattern change as most of E.NE has seen little or nothing for precip in some time.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it.

I hope for a speedy and healthy recovery my friend.  Sorry to hear that your feeling under the wx.  So many have been sick in my circle its friggin nuts.  I've never seen this before in my lifetime.  If there was anything that helped it was this product that I used www.C-60.com.  Check it out if you have time.

Meantime, models have trended in the wrong direction for MBY....the blocking is notably stronger across Ontario...that deepening Nor'Easter is certainly amplifying the Block in SE Canada!

0z Euro...heck, this may end up being a very rare hybrid clipper that "shares the wealth"....looks like I'll just get some lake effect influence if trends continue...this system reminds me vividly of a similar clipper that tracked in similar fashion in March of '20 or '21 where IA got blasted and we got flurries.  Can't remember the exact year but looks very similar.

1.png

  • Snow 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z GEFS seem to be tightening things up a bit and continue the SW/S shift....meanwhile, it continues to show some hefty hitters....this is through midday Sunday...

 

image.png

 

Then the secondary piece adds a couple more inches a bit farther N/NE for those who get missed...snow ratios should be on the higher/fluffier side and like @james1976mentioned...what beats a weekend/daytime snow day!

image.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z EC even further west good grief.

1642312800-jt97HE5fHkI.png

EPS mean

1642312800-N11OUb8aqsg.png

The way this is going for MBY all I’m rooting for is some Lake Effect at this point!  LOL, sharing is caring and if it has to go S/SW it better hit KC and your backyard!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, models are really crashing westward.  A day ago Cedar Rapids was parked in the middle of the heavy band and now we may barely get anything.  The system was still four days away, though, so nothing is ever locked in at that range.  Still, it always stinks to have models tease a biggie for your backyard and then yank the rug out from under you.

  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

The way this is going for MBY all I’m rooting for is some Lake Effect at this point!  LOL, sharing is caring and if it has to go S/SW it better hit KC and your backyard!

Lol I'm waiting for things to shift back east we'll see how it goes, the models have bit us a few times this Winter.

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lol I'm waiting for things to shift back east we'll see how it goes, the models have bit us a few times this Winter.

The only way it goes back the other way is if the system ends up being stronger which will pull it northward like the 06z NAM and ICON.  I doubt it tho, bc even the 06z Euro has gone more west and hits OMA/LNK directly.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

AFD from KC office:

The best chance to see precipitation still resides this weekend.
Models depict upper-level flow to take on a squished or pinched
orientation, if you will, placing the steering mechanism for any
disturbances in a north to south pattern directly over the CWA. This
will guide a developing low pressure system ejecting out of Canada
Friday morning to dive south through our region. While moisture
remains lacking at this time, strong upper flow will provide a surge
of moisture from the Pacific, and send it south with the incoming
low pressure center. This is best seen on the 500-300MB moisture
transport and magnitude vectors. As this system enters into the
forecast area Friday evening, rain is likely to begin the event. As
it leaves over the course of Saturday, dropping temps behind an
associated cold front and a potential developing deformation zone,
frozen precip may end the event in our forecast area. While we are
not hanging our hat on any potential solution, this event does prove
itself interesting as the GFS projects it to strengthen as it dives
south and swings back north up the east coast as a strong winter
cyclone.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I can only hope this westward shift is similar to how models shift south in the days leading up to a storm, only to shift back north.  I'm hoping for a shift back east.  I knew being in the bullseye was too good to be true, LOL.  

Being the bullseye that far out usually means you don't end up in the bullseye, but this was also a very rapid shift. Probably not a good sign. I wasn't expecting a huge storm, but starting to worry we might not get anything at all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would it be "gorilla clipper" in Reed's dictionary? 😜

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS is great for me, need it just a tad further west for my Kansas friends.

lol...I had already written this off and wasn't aware of the shift until I randomly checked out this thread. Tells you how engaged I am. Probably will still be east of me, but I think it is definitely interested in you buddy...lol

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

lol...I had already written this off and wasn't aware of the shift until I randomly checked out this thread. Tells you how engaged I am. Probably will still be east of me, but I think it is definitely interested in you buddy...lol

I wasn't either until this morning, I was very surprised.  The Euro has a better track for you, I hope all of us get something out of this.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...