snowstorm83 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro gets interesting for Omaha/Lincoln and down to KC. Could be a fluke because it much further northeast and stronger at 12z. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sheesh... latest Euro is so far west that Omaha and KC get more snow than Cedar Rapids. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 It will be interesting reading the morning AFD's-- DMX last AM (as mentioned by James) shunned at the SW moment. The PM shift wasn't as skeptical. Still a long ways out- but Jim Flowers on Fbook had an interesting take in that it's not the trough that comes in for placement - but the backing of the ridge in the W. At this range- it makes more sense then actual totals etc--- and that the troughs will set up where they do based on retrograde of the Far W ridge. Lots of changes for sure. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 00Z Euro Kuchera- at this rate W I'am outta of the pic on the NE side. One would think change back E- but this is such a hybrid- who knows. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 It seems like these strong systems diving south/southeast end up further west/southwest the closer we get Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said: It seems like these strong systems diving south/southeast end up further west/southwest the closer we get I hope your correct. But what previous events do you have to back that up? Just seems to me that most of the precip events this winter have E and NE of the E.NE area--- if the pattern is changing as much as JIm Flowers says- I think OMA/LKN area is golden, ( hope you guys score) this must mean a pattern change as most of E.NE has seen little or nothing for precip in some time. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: I'm ready for warm golfing weather. Sorry fellas, my condition is killing all enthusiasm for cold-n-snow. Hope those who want it can get it. I hope for a speedy and healthy recovery my friend. Sorry to hear that your feeling under the wx. So many have been sick in my circle its friggin nuts. I've never seen this before in my lifetime. If there was anything that helped it was this product that I used www.C-60.com. Check it out if you have time. Meantime, models have trended in the wrong direction for MBY....the blocking is notably stronger across Ontario...that deepening Nor'Easter is certainly amplifying the Block in SE Canada! 0z Euro...heck, this may end up being a very rare hybrid clipper that "shares the wealth"....looks like I'll just get some lake effect influence if trends continue...this system reminds me vividly of a similar clipper that tracked in similar fashion in March of '20 or '21 where IA got blasted and we got flurries. Can't remember the exact year but looks very similar. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 0z GEFS seem to be tightening things up a bit and continue the SW/S shift....meanwhile, it continues to show some hefty hitters....this is through midday Sunday... Then the secondary piece adds a couple more inches a bit farther N/NE for those who get missed...snow ratios should be on the higher/fluffier side and like @james1976mentioned...what beats a weekend/daytime snow day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Huge shift S/SW on the 0z EPS.... @Clinton @Grizzcoatpulled out their snow magnets.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The west shift continues on 06z GFS 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: Huge shift S/SW on the 0z EPS.... @Clinton @Grizzcoatpulled out their snow magnets.... I wasn't expecting to wake up and see all of this, both the GFS and Euro in agreement on several inches of snow for mby. That 1040mb high just north of the lakes is perfect for KC. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 6z GEFS with another shift west this morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 6z EC even further west good grief. EPS mean 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Oh yikes… that changed fast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z EC even further west good grief. EPS mean The way this is going for MBY all I’m rooting for is some Lake Effect at this point! LOL, sharing is caring and if it has to go S/SW it better hit KC and your backyard! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wow, models are really crashing westward. A day ago Cedar Rapids was parked in the middle of the heavy band and now we may barely get anything. The system was still four days away, though, so nothing is ever locked in at that range. Still, it always stinks to have models tease a biggie for your backyard and then yank the rug out from under you. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: The way this is going for MBY all I’m rooting for is some Lake Effect at this point! LOL, sharing is caring and if it has to go S/SW it better hit KC and your backyard! Lol I'm waiting for things to shift back east we'll see how it goes, the models have bit us a few times this Winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Lol I'm waiting for things to shift back east we'll see how it goes, the models have bit us a few times this Winter. The only way it goes back the other way is if the system ends up being stronger which will pull it northward like the 06z NAM and ICON. I doubt it tho, bc even the 06z Euro has gone more west and hits OMA/LNK directly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 And now the NAM is the latest model to cave way west. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z nam is also west 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, jcwxguy said: 12z nam is also west The snow gods heard kc crying last week from the last storm system and said here, shut up! Lol 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 AFD from KC office: The best chance to see precipitation still resides this weekend. Models depict upper-level flow to take on a squished or pinched orientation, if you will, placing the steering mechanism for any disturbances in a north to south pattern directly over the CWA. This will guide a developing low pressure system ejecting out of Canada Friday morning to dive south through our region. While moisture remains lacking at this time, strong upper flow will provide a surge of moisture from the Pacific, and send it south with the incoming low pressure center. This is best seen on the 500-300MB moisture transport and magnitude vectors. As this system enters into the forecast area Friday evening, rain is likely to begin the event. As it leaves over the course of Saturday, dropping temps behind an associated cold front and a potential developing deformation zone, frozen precip may end the event in our forecast area. While we are not hanging our hat on any potential solution, this event does prove itself interesting as the GFS projects it to strengthen as it dives south and swings back north up the east coast as a strong winter cyclone. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 I can only hope this westward shift is similar to how models shift south in the days leading up to a storm, only to shift back north. I'm hoping for a shift back east. I knew being in the bullseye was too good to be true, LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I can only hope this westward shift is similar to how models shift south in the days leading up to a storm, only to shift back north. I'm hoping for a shift back east. I knew being in the bullseye was too good to be true, LOL. Being the bullseye that far out usually means you don't end up in the bullseye, but this was also a very rapid shift. Probably not a good sign. I wasn't expecting a huge storm, but starting to worry we might not get anything at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Missouri River special. first call for CR: 2” Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 @ClintonRooting for ya bud....hope ya get tons outta this. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS shifting back east a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS looks slightly stronger this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z GFS 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The 12z GFS run is exactly what happened in that one clipper system that missed N IL back in March of ‘19 now I that I think of it. Man, this one is looking juicy for whoever gets the jack zone. #buildtheglacier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 ^^ I'm locking that in 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 That would be warning snows for the entire state of IA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, Niko said: @ClintonRooting for ya bud....hope ya get tons outta this. 12z GFS is great for me, need it just a tad further west for my Kansas friends. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Would it be "gorilla clipper" in Reed's dictionary? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS is great for me, need it just a tad further west for my Kansas friends. lol...I had already written this off and wasn't aware of the shift until I randomly checked out this thread. Tells you how engaged I am. Probably will still be east of me, but I think it is definitely interested in you buddy...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, mlgamer said: lol...I had already written this off and wasn't aware of the shift until I randomly checked out this thread. Tells you how engaged I am. Probably will still be east of me, but I think it is definitely interested in you buddy...lol I wasn't either until this morning, I was very surprised. The Euro has a better track for you, I hope all of us get something out of this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Big shift west with the 12z GEFS mean... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 I mean, good for Sioux City who has been shafted the past 4 years. But I'd still like to see some fresh powder in Duluth, even if it's only a couple inches. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 And of course NAM gives me a bullseye hit in Fargo lol 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z UK... really sharpened the eastern edge. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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