Beltrami Island Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, FAR_Weather said: I mean, good for Sioux City who has been shafted the past 4 years. But I'd still like to see some fresh powder in Duluth, even if it's only a couple inches. Duluth and myself look SOL on this one. I can't really complain about my snow depth, its about average for the date, but I seem to be on the edge or miss completely on any decent snow systems. Eastern ND looks like its getting the flip side of average from last year when they hardly got any snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 At least the GFS and GDPS are still solid for eastern Iowa. I'm expecting the Euro to look more like the UK, though. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: Duluth and myself look SOL on this one. I can't really complain about my snow depth, its about average for the date, but I seem to be on the edge or miss completely on any decent snow systems. Eastern ND looks like its getting the flip side of average from last year when they hardly got any snow. I honestly might just stay home if I get targeted by this. I have seen approximately 2" of our 14" snowpack fall and I'd hate to not see any more. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Got excited for a bit this morning; looks like it's gonna be another sharpe edge for me. Same for all the storms in my area so far this year. I have been on the edge in every direction; this one will make it the first time on the western edge of a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 33 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: At least the GFS and GDPS are still solid for eastern Iowa. I'm expecting the Euro to look more like the UK, though. For what it’s worth the UK didn’t handle the last system very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 I think most of Iowa should get something. If I get shafted again and get a quarter inch I won't be happy. Biggest snowfall I've had so far is 3.5 inches, which is obviously more than many others here. Seems I'm in that weird area so far where I get skirted by the storms that do pass, but not a direct hit. Except, for the December 15th madness. That was crazy! Good luck to everyone and even if it isn't me I hope someone can score big with this! The most beautiful thing about weather is, you always get another shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like places to the south are in for quite a bit of snow, "Potentially." EC could get clobbered! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro looking west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 UK and Euro both have Cedar Rapids on the far east edge, very close to getting nothing at all. It's amazing how quickly one can go from 8-12" to nothing. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The Euro weakens the storm as it moves south while the GFS intensifies it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro is a Sioux special. The hot spot on I-94 is Jamestown with 5" 10:1. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS and Euro are almost identical for the OAX region. Warning snow for Omaha and 4-5" in Lincoln. GFS expands precip much further into IA. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Could be a monster storm from the deep south to New England. The Euro is on board big time. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 GDPS looks good for most of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Big OOF on the model runs right now, minus the GFS, which I'm sure is out in fantasy land. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 EPS still with the bullseye around DSM 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 If the European models are right, I'm not staying here. I'm not gonna give up a visit to Duluth to watch 2" fall here lol 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: Could be a monster storm from the deep south to New England. The Euro is on board big time. How about this.....Holy Macro! An explosive just waiting to happen. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Alright, I'll bite. First opportunity to have my hopes crushed this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z ECMWF EPS Control using 10:1 ratios. Noticing Kuchera totals are a touch higher than 10:1 totals but given this could start out as a rain/snow mix locally a 10:1 average ratio for the event seems pretty fair. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 18z NAM rolling, like the look of the precip shield in ND as it dips out of Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro didn’t do so hot for me either with the New Years storm so will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Here ya go KC peeps: Minneapolis, Des Moines and St. Louis are all facing substantial snow accumulations, and Atlanta could pick up its first accumulating snowfall since the winter of 2017-2018. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 18z NAM rolling, like the look of the precip shield in ND as it dips out of Canada. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Nam looks a little East Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 18z NAM 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 FGF's take is basically "we don't know" Quote .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 NW flow aloft will persist into the weekend and to next week probably into next month. Weather impacts and challenges in the extended time frame center on clipper system set to move across the northern plains Thursday night into Friday. As the clipper moves through the region from NW to SE a band of snowfall is expected to develop with the highest amounts just east of the track. Ensemble solns showing widespread difference on the placement of the band so sfc low track remains the key to impacts. Where the band does track here is good indications of at least 2 inches, better than 60 percent, with the chance of 6 inches at 25 percent. Winds at this point in time do not look problematic while snow is ongoing but may pick up as the system departs quickly to the southeast Friday afternoon. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 DMX not getting crazy yet. Saying central and western Iowa should see 3+ inches. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 RGEM - Des Moines seems to be the sweet spot on most models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 18z NBM (blend of models) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 18z GFS almost a carbon copy of the 12z on placement. Looks wetter though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Hard to tell if it shifted, but for the most part it's similar, again a little more snow in some areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 18z GFS almost a carbon copy of the 12z on placement. Looks wetter though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 If the GFS were to verify almost the entire state of Iowa would have warning criteria snow. Only a few counties along the Mississippi River would likely be advisories instead. But all 99 counties would be likely to have headlines. I hope the Euro starts to cave towards the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Per this run this is still shifting a tad further west and places KC in the comma. Should be a interesting next couple of days watching models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Hard to tell if it shifted, but for the most part it's similar, again a little more snow in some areas. That's the best run yet for mby out of any model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Totals aren't gonna end up being this high. If they are, it'll be in a much narrower band. That's just the name of the game with clippers. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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