jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 based off black/white maps, CMC looks about the same as 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 For once GDR is right (!). I am ultra skeptical that this thing has as much moisture as is being advertised hence why my first call (2") was so conservative. I think this is a widespread 4-6 with isolated pockets of 7-8" and nothing more than that. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, GDR said: Clippers are never that juiced so I would cut the Totals way back This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 0z GEFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 gonna be good for omaha and fremont on CMC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out Well said. I never knew about the track staying along the ocean. Typically clippers tend to be along a continental air mass not a maritime one. Models started with a west trend and hopefully now a more juiced one will follow! One thing for sure; I don’t recall a clipper digging that far southeast and then turning into a monster nor’easter. Only one I can recall is the superstorm of 93. That one started in Florida and cut up though. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: gonna be good for omaha and fremont on CMC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 UK- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: UK- that 7.2 in nebraska is where i live. talk about riding the western edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Model agreement is very good tonight. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Model agreement is very good tonight. Well that pretty much ensures chaos tomorrow then. Lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said: This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out Agreed. And this isn't the first time a clipper has forecasted and dropped 6+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 euro drier for omaha/fremont vs 12z and 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 00z Euro doubles the 12z totals for the CR/IC area. I would certainly be satisfied with 4-5". The Euro's totals (4-8") are much more reasonable than the GFS's (12+"). 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 wider range Euro Kuchera- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out Yup, hence the name "hybrid"...good luck to you and the rest of the OMA/LNK crew....this could be your first real chance of seeing a good snowfall, although, that western edge would be nerve wrecking for me. I would be more comfortable living in IA and @FAR_Weather, nevertheless, this is setting up to be one potent hybrid. 0z Euro...really craps out as it heads south...still though, it would produce the biggest snowfall of the season for many out in the western Sub. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: wider range Euro Kuchera- I think I'm going to start doing the whole "reverse psychology"...it appears to be working! DSM magnet in full effect...the SREF's are golden. They were rock solid for the last system that ended up tracking north while all the CAM's and globals were softer on snowfall totals in C/E IA. I remember checking the SREF's a day before the storm and they were north which ended up being correct. Good luck Grizz and all the rest in IA/E NE and of course, the KC peeps @Clinton. My personal opinion, this will end up being a solid warning event for pretty much all of C & S IA with at least a high end advisory for E IA....I'll cherrish the Lake Effect "Flurries" in MBY. 0z GEFS have stopped shifting around the last few runs and are pretty much locked in...I don't see much variation at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if we do see more juiced up runs once the energy comes onshore. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Man, that Hudson Bay Block just explodes....no wonder this system ended up shifting so far west. On a side note, it does look like the big cities in the east will escape a big dog as this has "eyes" for an inland Nor'Easter. JB must be salivating this one. He's way overdue...I'll be rooting for him and my friends and clients in OH. @Niko, you could see something outta this if that energy ends up phasing earlier with the secondary trough swinging down through the GL's. Dang, case in point, the 0z EPS came in juiced and following the GEFS lead...jackzone for C IA... Wider view... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Jim Flowers mentioned in a video before the W shift ( a few days back and heck even before this event was showing on guidance) that the main cause of center of the nation trough was because of the ridge in the Pacific retrograding. Blocking likely as something to do with it, but he really nailed this on general aspect. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Holy smokes, the 0z Euro Control is "outta control"...FWIW, the past 3 runs in a row have been juicing up....buckle up! This one has some dynamics in play and just the way systems have been behaving this season I'm going to ride the higher end of guidance for those in the center of the action. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 06Z NAM ( I know- I know) -- creams C.IA. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 06 NAM- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's interesting to see the LR RAP showing a Lake Plume developing late Friday night... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 ^^ you mean Friday morning at midnight-- 06Z the 14th. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Will be interesting reading AFD's soon. Those offices that are discounting the higher totals may certainly be right, but nearly all guidance is increasing the totals - not decreasing. At least not yet which is almost certain to happen. C.IA is not seeing over 1' of snow. But 7-8" is certainly possible, and if so, is not what I'am getting from DMX. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 06Z RDPS- remarkable consistency at this range - at least in the center of the warning snows - watches going out as I write. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 DMX new graphics- totally different than just 12 hours ago- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 06ZGFS---- unreal model to model support for heaviest snows- amounts different, but not really that much at this range. System doesn't come ashore until Thursday AM, so changes are still possible but I dont recall a system this consistent model to model this far out. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 DMX now turning to higher potential totals- the author (Cogil) is a serious veteran and very good forecaster. The others that wrote previous AFD's in the last 36 hours are not -- young and not as experienced. That gives me more confidence that this event will happen with totals over 6" for many as Cogil is an excellent forecaster and does downplay winter events as does the entire office. All eyes then turn to the shortwave dropping southeast from the western provinces of Canada. This wave begins to amplify as it drops into the northern Plains on Friday and becomes a closed low by Friday night.The baroclinic zone will be draped across the state in the wake of the shortwave which passes tonight and increasing warm advection is expected along this axis by early Friday morning. Isentropic lift intensifies in this corridor with saturation deepening with time as the forcing slides from the Dakotas and Minnesota into northern Iowa after daybreak on Friday. Snow pushes into the north and expands south and east through the day in the broad isentropic lift across the state. Meanwhile, strong kinematic forcing arrives to further support snow into Friday night before dropping south into Missouri by Saturday morning. Therefore, the duration of the event is expected to last from 14 to 20 hours in most locations allowing decent snowfall amounts to accumulate during that time. Snow ratios are expected to increase throughout the duration of the storm with 9 to 10:1 initially increasing toward 13 or 14:1 and possibly higher as towards the end. Lift in the dendritic zone is decent although initially the depth of the zone is around 600 to 800m but increases to 1200-1400m by Friday night which should help to increase ratios as well. With the given QPF, it appears significant snowfall should occur over a good portion of the forecast area. Have continued to ramp up messaging with the probability of snow totals exceeding 2"+ and 6"+ and a watch is likely to follow this afternoon should all guidance continue to point in this direction. Concern in particular would be for the Friday afternoon/evening commute as some of the higher snowfall rates will be occurring that time through a good portion of central Iowa and have mentioned that in messaging as well. Surface winds initially from the southeast will become northeast by Friday night and increase as the gradient tightens producing some additional blowing and drifting snow. DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...Lee 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 6z Euro has the SW cut-off dangerously close to mby. Need a colder solution, rain keeps my totals to 3 inches. Great hit for Iowa. KC is always on the edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Very wet snow, kuchera is actually less than 10:1 here and omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro has the SW cut-off dangerously close to mby. Need a colder solution, rain keeps my totals to 3 inches. Great hit for Iowa. KC is always on the edge. What's it looking like through Sunday for the ohio Valley where I'm at. Thanks for posting all the maps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Wheezer said: What's it looking like through Sunday for the ohio Valley where I'm at. Thanks for posting all the maps Here are the GFS and Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Fwiw 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Models have certainly stopped the westward trend. We are riding the edge here in LNK. I figured things were to good to be true yesterday. My gut feeling says we see a trace. Was really hoping to score a couple inches so we could roll on snow removal this weekend. Let’s see how models run today but I’m not holding my breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 For me the storm looks to have all the usual problems...track, warm air, etc. I'll likely be filing this under "so close, yet so far". We'll see... 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 6z EC 6z Mean close to 0z. Not feeling great about this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.