Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ugh, the 06z Euro dropped CR/IC back down again. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 9z SREF Mean not getting the whole thing but looks good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z NAM further west again. More generous with accumulations in KC area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 17" lol. West shift needs to stop again 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The NAM did shift west a bit, but even more noticeable is the snow shield shrunk. The western edge in Iowa and Nebraska held about the same from 6z, but the eastern edge shrunk by a couple of counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 3kNAM is even farther west than the 12k. The 12k has 2.6" in Cedar Rapids by 00z Saturday. The 3k has nothing. I would likely end up with only 1-2" if the run went beyond 60 hrs, which would be the driest run of any model so far. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z NAM further west again. More generous with accumulations in KC area. What a "cute" random screw zone over Omaha on that run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said: What a "cute" random screw zone over Omaha on that run. Models are cruel go look at what the 6z GFS does to me lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 NDFD in range now for Neb and Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Models are cruel go look at what the 6z GFS does to me lol. lol...I saw that. Brutal. The 12z NAM drops a snow hole pretty close to me. Not sure what we ever did to these models to make them dog us like this...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS no dramatic changes. A little weaker on the eastern edge. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 ^^ 11" imby I'd take that. Man these runs are consistent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm giving up hope on the eastern shift. Just hoping I can hang on to the 4-6" range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Is it realistic to use the kuchera ratios for this clipper? What kind of ratios should we expect? As of now, I think 3-5" is a good bet for CR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 This would be a historic snowfall for SE. MO. Nearly 32 inches while I scrounge to get 3. @Nikothis run of the GFS includes you. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Iowawx said: Is it realistic to use the kuchera ratios for this clipper? What kind of ratios should we expect? As of now, I think 3-5" is a good bet for CR. It should be colder on the east and north side away from the L so ratios should be a bit more than 10:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Clinton said: This would be a historic snowfall for SE. MO. Nearly 32 inches while I scrounge to get 3. You beat me…I get my lake effect flurries 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tom said: You beat me…I get my lake effect flurries I'll gladly take my 3, it would be 3 times what I've gotten so far. Wish we could do better than flurries for ya. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 We have the Omaha and KC members riding the western edge, hoping for a nudge west. We have Cedar Rapids and Iowa City members riding the east edge, hoping we end up on the inside of the sharp edge. The central Iowa members get to relax. 5 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 DMX morning afd said watches likely by this afternoon if guidance stays consistent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX morning afd said watches likely by this afternoon if guidance stays consistent How about now!! Ha! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 ...Winter Storm to Impact the Area Friday through Late Friday Night... .A winter storm with the potential for moderate to heavy snow accumulations will affect the area Friday into late Friday night. The snow is expected to cause impacts on travel especially the evening commute. Winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. IAZ004-005-015-023>025-033>037-044>049-057>061-070>075-081>086- 092>097-130015- /O.NEW.KDMX.WS.A.0001.220114T1500Z-220115T1200Z/ Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story- Marshall-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Cass-Adair-Madison- Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello- Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis- Including the cities of Estherville, Algona, Emmetsburg, Pocahontas, Laurens, Rolfe, Fonda, Gilmore City, Humboldt, Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Sac City, Lake View, Odebolt, Wall Lake, Schaller, Early, Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City, Pomeroy, Fort Dodge, Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley, Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, Ames, Marshalltown, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee, Adel, Des Moines, Newton, Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham, Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle, Pella, Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Corning, Creston, Osceola, Chariton, Albia, Ottumwa, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr, Lamoni, Leon, Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, Humeston, Centerville, and Bloomfield 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Locally higher amounts likely. * WHERE...Central Iowa. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Easterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 FV3 through only 6pm Friday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: FV3 through only 6pm Friday Wow. And it should snow all nigh for most of IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z GEFS members...what a sad "U" shaped snow hole over IL.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX morning afd said watches likely by this afternoon if guidance stays consistent Nvm DMX just pulled the trigger but it's sadly just to my west. Hope that changes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ugh.... the 12z UK just took a giant dump on eastern Iowa. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 For what it's worth, point & click forecast in Omaha has 7.6" of snow. Lincoln comes in at 3.5". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well if Lincoln gets 1" and Omaha gets 6" I think I'd rather not be here anyways LOL. Tricky forecast for OAX, I think they probably include Omaha in the watch and leave LNK out. One thing is certain - Indianapolis will be cold and dry. As long as you ignore the GFS....which is so far NW I would probably have issues getting out of there on Sunday. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: This would be a historic snowfall for SE. MO. Nearly 32 inches while I scrounge to get 3. @Nikothis run of the GFS includes you. BTW: Check this out; 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 FWIW 12z ICON looks a bit east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 @Clinton 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: You beat me…I get my lake effect flurries Lucky you...will probably see nadda out this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well the 12z models have not been friendly on the eastern edge. Based on the 06z Euro, I expect more of the same from the 12z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z Canadian increased totals just slightly in central and western IA compared to 00z run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z CMC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z ECMWF looks a hair west but also weaker on the western fringe; Omaha totals unchanged around 4-7". 15" bullseye in C. IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z ECMWF Kuchera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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