Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 This thing stabilized yesterday, but now the west trend, or at least the drier east edge trend, has continued. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Dry air from that high pressure might be eating away at the eastern edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, james1976 said: Nvm DMX just pulled the trigger but it's sadly just to my west. Hope that changes I don’t see how the watch doesn’t go to Blackhawk county…. Seems like it would be easier to dial it back later than add it at the last minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 I think I'll still do pretty well in Waterloo unless it goes further west. Won't be huge here I don't think but somewhere around 4-6, maybe a little less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cfweather said: I don’t see how the watch doesn’t go to Blackhawk county…. Seems like it would be easier to dial it back later than add it at the last minute. I'm not sure either but, perhaps with afternoon AFD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The models just keep getting more depressing. I was hoping to hang on to 4-6” but 2-4” may be lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cfweather said: I don’t see how the watch doesn’t go to Blackhawk county…. Seems like it would be easier to dial it back later than add it at the last minute. Too early yet for the east and west edges. Prolly end up with an advisory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 It is always pretty to see this wording in your forecast. Friday Snow and freezing drizzle, possibly mixed with drizzle before 2pm, then drizzle and snow between 2pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. High near 36. Southeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 My Duluth trip is still on. The roads suck in Fargo after it snows anyway lol Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z ECMWF EPS ticks a hair west, nothing wild. 12z ECMWF EPS Control beefs up amounts for a 12" jackpot in west-central Iowa but dries up the western edge of the snow shield; all told, Omaha amounts up to 7.3" on the Control (7.2" in 00z) and up to 4.8" on the Mean (4.0" in 00z). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here's the EPS control that Snowman mentioned. It is a little better in eastern Iowa. This is 10:1 and ratios are probably 15:1 on average in Eastern Iowa based on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 wider view for those further west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The EPS mean is actually a tick further east than the control and Op models. At least on the eastern edge that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z EPS ensembles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 15z SREF Mean jumps west 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 hours ago, gabel23 said: Well said. I never knew about the track staying along the ocean. Typically clippers tend to be along a continental air mass not a maritime one. Models started with a west trend and hopefully now a more juiced one will follow! One thing for sure; I don’t recall a clipper digging that far southeast and then turning into a monster nor’easter. Only one I can recall is the superstorm of 93. That one started in Florida and cut up though. As I mentioned yesterday; pretty amazing how close the models are lining up with what the flow was like in 1993! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 At this point I'm thinking an advisory for my area and over to Waterloo area. Maybe a broad Watch first before transitioning to advisory. I'm hoping for a Warning but being on the eastern edge of the heavy band and it trending west again doesn't bode well. Still got time though so we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, james1976 said: At this point I'm thinking an advisory for my area and over to Waterloo area. Maybe a broad Watch first before transitioning to advisory. I'm hoping for a Warning but being on the eastern edge of the heavy band and it trending west again doesn't bode well. Still got time though so we'll see. And there it is. 4-7” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 DVN already issued a winter storm watch for CR/IC. Forecasting 4-6" here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iowawx said: DVN already issued a winter storm watch for CR/IC. Forecasting 4-6" here. Wow, I'm surprised by that. Pleasantly surprised. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Jim Flowers' forecast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM Come on thru NAM and lead the way!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Come on thru NAM and lead the way!! Models have shown a uptick in our totals today but nothing quite like that, however this was the first model to shift west so maybe it has the hot hand. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Pretty much every model is showing a good 6+ here (kuchera). I'd be stoked with that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yup, probably an advisory event for here too. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: Models have shown a uptick in our totals today but nothing quite like that, however this was the first model to shift west so maybe it has the hot hand. If the other models follow suit we will both be in WSW by tomorrow night including @mlgamer 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'd love to end up with a Warning. The timing is perfect with snow moving in during the morning. And its a Friday. Come on snow gods! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 NWS Omaha refrains from any watches west of the Missouri River, save for some folks just west of Sioux City. Shifted heaviest totals eastwards as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 RGEM with a big shift east. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: RGEM with a big shift east. Is that model reliable at this time frame? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is that model reliable at this time frame? Only if others follow suit lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 UGH...Topeka NWS added a possible freezing rain mix to my point forecast! Those guys take the fun out of everything...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Omaha NWS says screw you Omaha! You don’t get no stinkin’ watch. One would think given we’re a large metro area they wouldn’t have stopped at the county that Omaha is literally on the border of. From downtown Omaha you could throw a rock into the watch zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS coming in hot. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Omaha NWS says screw you Omaha! You don’t get no stinkin’ watch. One would think given we’re a large metro area they wouldn’t have stopped at the county that Omaha is literally on the border of. From downtown Omaha you could throw a rock into the watch zone. Good thing Carter Lake is under a watch, they should get more snow than Downtown and Eppley I know they have to issue most products for entire counties and have to draw the line somewhere but it's still kinda dumb. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GFS looks like it has the high north of the lakes just a touch more to the northeast. Could make a big difference for eastern IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.