Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 DMX likes Estherville to Des Moines for heaviest line-- Next up is a much more potent system which will bring widespread snowfall to the state on Friday. An upper low dropping south out of Alberta merges with another wave pushing through the Pacific NW, eventually deepening as it drops south through the Plains states. Deep lift is established within a zone of synoptic divergence aloft, sandwiched between a jet streak crossing the Plains and another traversing the Great Lakes. This divergence is sustained for an extended period as the upper low pivots eastward, leading to a lengthy window of snowfall for the state. Snowfall expands from north to south Friday morning as isentropic ascent increases within a zone of broad warm air advection. Moisture availability is not usually high and stability parameters suggest low banding potential, but snow piles up as deep lift is sustained for an extended period lasting well into Friday night for most of the area. This idea is supported by hourly Cobb output of recent NAM/GFS runs which shows consistent ~0.5"/hr snowfall rates, possibly peaking a bit higher at times between 21z-03z. Snow rates wane as isentropic ascent diminishes Friday night. A deepening DGZ and lingering support aloft should keep at least light snowfall around into the early hours Saturday. Models may still be a bit too quick to pull snow out of the forecast. A widespread 4-7"+ is in play for all of central Iowa, but models have focused on a corridor from EST to DSM for the highest potential amounts. More uncertainty resides over our far north and east counties where drier air may eat into snowfall totals a bit. Ensemble plumes reflect this uncertainty well with a larger QPF spread amongst members. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 huh, well this is a nice change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GFS looks like a bigger wetter storm overall. I'll take it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 For those keeping score at home, 18z ICON moved west again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 DSM raw data 18Z GFS not happening fwiw- but still FRI 18Z 14-JAN 0.1 -2.5 1017 97 97 0.10 553 539 SAT 00Z 15-JAN -0.6 -5.0 1017 98 97 0.46 548 535 SAT 06Z 15-JAN -6.6 -7.7 1023 94 97 0.29 546 528 SAT 12Z 15-JAN -9.4 -10.6 1029 93 94 0.14 545 523 SAT 18Z 15-JAN -10.0 -11.5 1033 87 73 0.01 547 521 SUN 00Z 16-JAN -15.5 -10.9 1033 97 28 0.00 549 525 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 I will never understand this board in particular's obsession with the ICON. Belongs with the brazilian and DGEX. 1 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, hlcater said: I will never understand this board in particular's obsession with the ICON. Belongs with the brazilian and DGEX. From a statistical view, the ICON (turquoise line, a.k.a. DWD) is more or less on par with the UKMET over the last few years, and not in a good way - indeed, for the month of November, the order of models from most- to least-accurate at the 120-hour timeframe was: ECMWF GFS CMC ICON UKMET JMA On a side note, the GFS was more accurate than the ECMWF beyond hour 144. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 FWIW, can't post the graphics but cluster analysis of the ECMWF ENS has 45% of members in line with what Grizz posted just above, 41% of members shifting the core of the snow about 20 miles west, and the last 13% having a further east trajectory not too dissimilar from the 18z GFS (with a sharper western cutoff however). Not sure if it's useful, but there ya go 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Different view- 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, The Snowman said: From a statistical view, the ICON (turquoise line, a.k.a. DWD) is more or less on par with the UKMET over the last few years, and not in a good way - indeed, for the month of November, the order of models from most- to least-accurate at the 120-hour timeframe was: ECMWF GFS CMC ICON UKMET JMA On a side note, the GFS was more accurate than the ECMWF beyond hour 144. That's a patently false interpretation of the data. If you isolate 2021 then maybe so but the UKMET is generally a higher regarded model and prior years demonstrate why. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Different view- I know it doesn't seem like much to many of you in Iowa but it's been a long time since I've had a 5 sitting on my county this close to the event. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 21Z SREF has stripe of 10-12" from EST down through DSM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Closer view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, hlcater said: That's a patently false interpretation of the data. If you isolate 2021 then maybe so but the UKMET is generally a higher regarded model and prior years demonstrate why. Oh I'm not here to advocate one side or the other, that's just my takeaway. The beauty of an open forum like this is that no one is forced to agree with another. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 00z HRRR is still well northeast of most other models. Like the RAP, it will certainly cave southwest tomorrow. I sure wish it was right, but I wouldn't bet a dime on this outcome. Edit: Actually, I don't think I'd want the ridiculous HRRR run because it's all wet slop. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Closeup of the SREF 10:1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 As Hawkeye mentioned the HRRR is so far northeast it's absurd. Also brings in a lot of warm air and ratios are well below 10:1. I think it's safe to say that run can be tossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Closeup of the SREF 10:1 Dallas Cty special!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z HRRR I would be very careful looking at HRRR this far out. Tends to blow up this far out from a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 https://whatgoesonoutside.com/will-we-be-teased-with-snow-again/ My take on the snow as if now.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Do I see an eastern shift on the 00z NAM here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM coming in much better for Eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam is slowing system slightly and expanding snow field. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Fascinating band of moderate to heavy snow shown by the NAM on the northeast NE/southeast SD border between hours 45-51. Edit: A band which lays down somewhere close to a foot of snow, at that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Totals this run are going to be very high... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z NAM reversing the recent trend of drying out the western portion of this snow shield, looking like it will boost totals for Omaha. Also a very pleasant surprise seeing our eastern Iowa friends with juicier totals this run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The NAM is running at a snails pace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Lincoln is even in the game.on this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Through 6am Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM looks to give areas just north of Omaha a foot, waiting for the event to actually end so I can put up a graphic. But is it really realistic to have snow last that long amidst dry Canadian air after the main snow bands push through? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Good share the snow run by the 0z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 HRW-FV3 is crushing C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 All of IA (almost) warning snows- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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