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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom

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The nam to me is very suspect because it has a very different solution regarding how it takes the 2 main areas of energy that will be the forcing the snow.... you can see two distinct areas of energy, and it even closes both of them off. This is very different from what other models are showing. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-12 at 9.14.12 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-12 at 9.14.27 PM.png

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27 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Cheers to double digits!

NWS Omaha has slashed the city's point & click total to less than 4", so I envy your upgrade!

Trends are not our friend right now... the models seem to be doing this to us a lot this year by flashing something good - only for Mother Nature to eventually take most of it away as the event draws closer.

This one looks like an Iowa\ Des Moines special with us getting into some "sloppy seconds" on the west side... which we will have to take this Winter. Hopefully I am wrong, but I will honestly be surprised if we get much more than 2-4" here in Omaha with this system.

 

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5 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Trends are not our friend right now... the models seem to be doing this to us a lot this year by flashing something good - only for Mother Nature to eventually take most of it away as the event draws closer.

This one looks like an Iowa\ Des Moines special with us getting into some "sloppy seconds" on the west side... which we will have to take this Winter. Hopefully I am wrong, but I will honestly be surprised if we get much more than 2-4" here in Omaha with this system.

 

That's fair, I agree - here in Omaha we'll have to rely on some type of NAM-like solution that shoots out a band of heavy snow west of the actual primary heavy-snow-zone to give us anything above 5", otherwise 2-5" (isolated 5" at least) seems valid.

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The consistency continues across the board. Nice to see, for a change. Cobb outputs for DSM consistent around 12 to 13:1, which I will buy especially past sunset into overnight hours. In fact may be underdone for the tail end of the storm. Crossing fingers for double digit total which is hard to get here in central Iowa. And it'll make the guy on local CBS regret his 3 to 6" total he had at 6pm! (New guy initiation) 😂

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6 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

The consistency continues across the board. Nice to see, for a change. Cobb outputs for DSM consistent around 12 to 13:1, which I will buy especially past sunset into overnight hours. In fact may be underdone for the tail end of the storm. Crossing fingers for double digit total which is hard to get here in central Iowa. And it'll make the guy on local CBS regret his 3 to 6" total he had at 6pm! (New guy initiation) 😂

I remember when the guy from Canada was KWWL chief met, it wouldn't matter if we were going to have 20 feet of snow everything was always flurries. The first time he said "heavy flurries" and acted as though he was serious, I didn't know what to think. 

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20 minutes ago, Bellona said:

I remember when the guy from Canada was KWWL chief met, it wouldn't matter if we were going to have 20 feet of snow everything was always flurries. The first time he said "heavy flurries" and acted as though he was serious, I didn't know what to think. 

This sounds familiar. What was his name yet?

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While we are on the topic of bad tv mets (at least kind of on this topic)- the worst I ever saw was in 2003 or 2004 on WOI-TV in DSM. Erin Little (moved to KC for promotion-- how in the hell that happened is beyond me) was the mid day met for the noon news. at about 11:30am the NWS upgraded the advisories to warnings and was calling for 6-8" for the metro for the afternoon and early evening.  Erin Little still had winter weather advisories listed in the forecast page for 2-4" WHILE Winter Storm Warnings were scrolling on the bottom-- I get it- no time to change graphics and all, but she NEVER mentioned the upgrade and didn't revise totals. Remember it like yesterday and ended up with 5-7" across the Metro.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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^^ he is chief for FOX in the Twin Cities and still tight with snow. The other side of the coin was old Dave Dahl on Channel 5 in the Twin Cities. He was ALWAYS OVER predicting snow. It was hilarious and even those not into the weather picked up on it.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, BMT said:

Good share the snow run by the 0z NAM

Blow some over this way please...you guys are looking gold up in IA!  Can't say I'm a little bit jelly to be missing out on this one...there's always next time...

 

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Full run -

snku_acc.us_mw.png

The signal for meso-scale banding off the CAM's is rather significant...should be fun tracking the radar...

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Jim Flowers put out a good video highlighting his experience and use of "old school" forecasting techniques. These are typically very accurate and models can struggle to show them.  This was about the inverted trough and how the heavy snow will lay out just east of where that sets up. It's where the winds go from northwest to east. Those with the east wind get heavy precip while those with the northwest wind get dried out.  He showed it being modeled right along the Missouri River or a county west of that.  Models are showing this sharp drop in snowfall fairy well. Living in Saint Joseph, i am quite comfortable being far enough east for the good snows, I just hope it's far enough south. Models have consistently had me on the very south edge of the good snows. Badly need a good one here after getting the shaft a couple weeks ago

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The Euro just keeps that further west solution run after run. I can only hope it’s just a smidge off. The HRRR continues to be well east. Something DVN mentioned in what was a terrific AFD today. The storm is not yet sampled so changes are quite probable with todays model runs. 

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