Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 FGF pulled the trigger on a 6-10" warning for all but the far eastern CWA strangely early. Usually they're the last one to issue any headlines. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pulling hard for the NAM, the GFS is slowly improving for KC on the 6z run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 On the eastern edge models keep waffling... up a bit, then back down, up a bit again, then back down. Once again, like last storm, the Euro is on the dry end of the range. It was wrong last time. Southwest MN through west/central Iowa is going to get a real nice dumping. I hope more of us can get in on something like this in February. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 KC office take for today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: KC office take for today. Good luck bud! I'm rooting for you and your KC neighbors on this one...would suck to see bare ground as the cold comes into the pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z euro finally nudged east in iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 And so the East trends commence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Don’t expect much wobble wobble but it could make a big difference for some Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z Euro Control and Mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 NWS added some counties to the east side of the watch in IA. Makes me feel a bit more confident with my area getting a good snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well we are preparing for 5 plus inches. On new years day I was the bullseyes for days but a weak dryslot in the storm here held me under 7 inches. 6.5 to 6.8.. this event Im looking good. Another 6 inch probably. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 NAM speeding things up-== Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 As expected, the 12z HRRR has shifted significantly sw and is now in line with other models. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 I keep hearing this storm will produce a very wet, heavy snow(low ratios). Makes me wonder why everyone is posting Kuchera maps.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, FarmerRick said: I keep hearing this storm will produce a very wet, heavy snow(low ratios). Makes me wonder why everyone is posting Kuchera maps.... Maybe SW side of storm otherwise should be 13-14:1 in C IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, FarmerRick said: I keep hearing this storm will produce a very wet, heavy snow(low ratios). Makes me wonder why everyone is posting Kuchera maps.... At the onset it will be wet, but then ratios improve to 13 maybe 14 to 1 for the Des Moines area, and Kuchera takes that into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z NAM and 3kNAM Cedar Rapids is really teetering on the fence on some of these models. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 12z FV3 is still a northeast outlier. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z NAM and 3kNAM Cedar Rapids is really teetering on the fence on some of these models. Indeed - hoping for a repeat of the New Years storm where we stayed on the "right" side 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said: At the onset it will be wet, but then ratios improve to 13 maybe 14 to 1 for the Des Moines area, and Kuchera takes that into account. Gotcha, thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z RDPS 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Welp, when we end up with 2" it'll be quicker to melt when the temps jump back up into 40s the beginning of next week. Then it's back to dry weather to end the month and mostly above average temps for here according to the GFS. Latest GFS has me 6.2 degrees above normal for the run, which if there's not going to be snow on the ground make it warm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'm thinking 4-6" is a good bet for CR. Most models have us within that range. A small eastward shift would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z GFS... sure woulda been nice to get bulls-eyed by this one. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pretty dang consistent. Looks like models are speeding up the onset just a bit as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Have fun IA! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS's trend is not good for kc... it is continued to shift slightly east the past 4 runs or so. This is the 850 mb heights with temp advection. The area just north and east of the low where good low-level WAA is occuring is where the best lift would be. You also tend to not like to see the low track directly over you... this is a good trend for STL, though, where I am now! Also worried about temps for KC.. it really wraps in some warm air and keeps temps 2 degrees or so above freezing for a while. Watching for a continued trend with this solution which would bring heavier snow totals down into parts of northeast Missouri. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: GFS's trend is not good for kc... it is continued to shift slightly east the past 4 runs or so. This is the 850 mb heights with temp advection. The area just north and east of the low where good low-level WAA is occuring is where the best lift would be. You also tend to not like to see the low track directly over you... this is a good trend for STL, though, where I am now! Also worried about temps for KC.. it really wraps in some warm air and keeps temps 2 degrees or so above freezing for a while. Watching for a continued trend with this solution which would bring heavier snow totals down into parts of northeast Missouri. Is this system fully sampled now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z GDPS (Canadian) 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is this system fully sampled now? Close... this was this morning a 6 am. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hard to know what model to believe at this point, and certainly future wobbling is possible. It seems I always end up on the edge of storms, but more times than not still seem to make out ok. So I'm hoping for 4-6". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'm in Brookings SD so I'm not rooting for the eastward shift. Marshall MN is a good place to live for getting the "big ones" with a fair level of frequency. I've often thought I should move to Ludington MI but I'd probably get annoyed with the lake effect snow after awhile. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro keeps hope alive for E NE peeps...IA is locked in...eastern side of IA is riding the edge...so are the MSP folks...lake effect signal somewhat better for NE IL.... I couldn't help but notice the difference in the Kuchera maps between what you posted and what I shared. I use PW and you use weathermodels.com. Are there different Kuchera formulas? I assumed it was the same formula and so the maps across sites would be the same. "My" Kuchera showed Omaha with 7.3" and "your" Kuchera has 10". Kinda weird I thought... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I couldn't help but notice the difference in the Kuchera maps between what you posted and what I shared. I use PW and you use weathermodels.com. Are there different Kuchera formulas? I assumed it was the same formula and so the maps across sites would be the same. "My" Kuchera showed Omaha with 7.3" and "your" Kuchera has 10". Kinda weird I thought... Ya, each firm seems to have their own algorithm’s in how they calculate kuchera snow ratios. I know weatherbell also shows a different solution. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Weatherbell's maps and weathermodels.com maps were developed by the same person, Ryan Maue. Both sites seem to use an overly-juiced Kuchera algorithm. One would think all Kuchera maps should be the same. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 DMX must be waiting til afternoon package to upgrade to warnings. Or at least til all 12z models are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 12z Euro is back east a bit, continuing its back-and-forth pattern. I think this is the best run for Waterloo/CR/IC in a while. Here's the 10:1 map. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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