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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom

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Using those maps, Pivotal's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids a 14:1 average ratio.  Weatherbell's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids an 18:1 average ratio.  Frankly, even the lower Pivotal kuchera ratio usually does not verify.

Regarding this storm's model trend, this morning has been solid for Cedar Rapids.  4-5" would be a decent storm.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z HRRR... eastern edge is juiced up a bit again.  It suggests about five hours of 0.5"/hr snow in Cedar Rapids from about 2pm-7pm, so we won't see the heavy rate the last system produced.

image.thumb.png.8b34e7c196bbf610324822741af58ce7.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18Z NAM seeing extra juice in warmer temps today. Where is the moisture coming from a Clipper? It's all ready here. Just need the dynamics aloft and cold (enough air-- thank goodness it's mid-JAN) and BINGO.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is that a tiny 6" bullseye on your backyard?

3.2" at ORD...I'll 2" and run with it!  LOL.  If the 18z NAM is right, it pulls more moisture into N IL and marry's with lake moisture.  Would be the best outcome here for sure.  Not banking on it but something to hope for if other models see it.

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