Bellona Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX must be waiting til afternoon package to upgrade to warnings. Or at least til all 12z models are in. I fully expect everyone wloo on west to be in warnings whenever they do decide to switch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 To Hawkeye's point. Here is Pivotal Euro Kuchera vs. WeatherBell 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Using those maps, Pivotal's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids a 14:1 average ratio. Weatherbell's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids an 18:1 average ratio. Frankly, even the lower Pivotal kuchera ratio usually does not verify. Regarding this storm's model trend, this morning has been solid for Cedar Rapids. 4-5" would be a decent storm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 @mlgamerand @Jayhawker8512z Euro looks nice for us. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Clinton said: @mlgamerand @Jayhawker8512z Euro looks nice for us. I need the Euro and NAM to be right this time since they blew last week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Probably end up with a trace here in Lincoln. Good news is if it doesn’t snow we should moderate pretty nice next week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 You wouldn't even know a storm is comin unless you look at the forecast. 45 and sunny. Snowcover is basically gone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z EPS and GEFS Mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pretty wide discrepancy still between the Euro ensembles and the GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Things are ... ah ... not so great here in Omaha with these latest runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z HRRR... eastern edge is juiced up a bit again. It suggests about five hours of 0.5"/hr snow in Cedar Rapids from about 2pm-7pm, so we won't see the heavy rate the last system produced. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 18z HRRR... eastern edge is juiced up a bit again. That's one of the lowest totals I've seen for DSM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 NAM going to destroy C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: 18 NAM going to destroy C.IA DGEX baby! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18Z NAM seeing extra juice in warmer temps today. Where is the moisture coming from a Clipper? It's all ready here. Just need the dynamics aloft and cold (enough air-- thank goodness it's mid-JAN) and BINGO. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 God I hope the HRRR is right with the LES..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: God I hope the HRRR is right with the LES..... Is that a tiny 6" bullseye on your backyard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3KM nam also following suit. C..IA crusher. I love being E of inverted troughs. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 3k NAM shows a significant expansion into eastern Iowa as well. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is that a tiny 6" bullseye on your backyard? 3.2" at ORD...I'll 2" and run with it! LOL. If the 18z NAM is right, it pulls more moisture into N IL and marry's with lake moisture. Would be the best outcome here for sure. Not banking on it but something to hope for if other models see it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Reminds of "The Call of Ktulu" by Metallica for C.IA (btw- a great winter driving song for those that go drift busting) 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM has me with 6+ and snow is still falling. Seems like we should just lock this run in! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gonna raise my 2" call to 4". 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Havent seen a 3km Nam run this close to the event for mby with these totals since it's inception -- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z NAM finished up nice down here 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Reminds of "The Call of Ktulu" by Metallica for C.IA (btw- a great winter driving song for those that go drift busting) Call of Ktulu, one of my favorite songs of all time. I can listen to that anytime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z NAM finished up nice down here You may score pretty big! Hopefully we can get these surface temps to cool so every flake can stick 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: You may score pretty big! Hopefully we can get these surface temps to cool so every flake can stick The snow starting overnight will help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Most of IA is being upgraded to a warning. Advisories all the way to the Mississippi River. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam went from not much in central MO to a major major storm.. it is jumping all around.. wouldn't put much weight in it. It did, however, continue the shift east from other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 DVN has issued a winter weather advisory for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, expecting 4-6". 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just upgraded to a warning! 6-10". They also moved up the start time to 6am. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 I love daytime snowstorms. I really hope this pans out. I'm supposed to actually travel to Des Moines later tomorrow but that may get canceled and if it does I'll get to enjoy this from home which is always my favorite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z RDPS - Nudged southwest 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 18z RDPS - Nudged southwest @Tom will like the lake fetch off this one too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The entire state of Iowa is under a warning or advisory. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Boo. D**n WWA for 2-4" of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 DMX taking their sweet a** time with AFD, as ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z GFS 3-6 in the KC area 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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