bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS on WxBell has the same inflated ratios as on the Euro. Seems even more pronounced with this storm than normal. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Before you guys knock on the ratios, for this year up here, they have been pretty much spot on. Not saying this storm is the same, but.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Man, low stratus just moved in a while ago. It was like a wall. Went from total sun to low clouds Gearin up! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said: Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”. Last Winter was great, this one has been an absolute dud… law of averages working it’s way out I guess. Looks like another yawner tomorrow night/ Saturday here… thinking maybe 1-2” tops here in Omaha. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro really starting to cut this storm farther inland for the EC peeps...snow to rain scenario for C PA....inching closer to @Niko....I also think we have some OHV lurkers on here that look to score and one member in Ontario, CA I believe... Looks interesting, for sure. Lets see if any more westward movements will be in play. Wont take much to put me in the heavy snow accumulation. Mind you, this used to be wayyyy east. Cant believe how much west it has moved. I think for a time, the GFS was showing rain for Vermont . Nevertheless, bears watching over the coming days. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 This looks weird.....kinda looks like an upside down triangle. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Interesting tidbit from DMX and the stratus I mentioned may keep the dry air from the northeast away. A few caveats to the forecast: As saturation occurs early in the morning, warm air advection wings in northwest to north central Iowa may produce snow ahead of the main event. This may not be reflected well in the PoPs at this time. Additionally, winds out of the east to northeast from the departing high pressure may lead to some dry air that may undercut saturation early in the east leading to a potential gradient in snow totals initially. However, widespread stratus moving into the area may help provide seeder feeders to overcome this dry air in addition to the long duration of the event still helping to aide in snowfall totals of 4-7 inches in our far northeast counties of Bremer/Blackhawk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z Euro 10:1 No much change looks better for the KC area. I wish WxBell had more reliable Kuchera maps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 59 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Last Winter was great, this one has been an absolute dud… law of averages working it’s way out I guess. Looks like another yawner tomorrow night/ Saturday here… thinking maybe 1-2” tops here in Omaha. And school is cancelled for the metro. My wife's a teacher and she said the districts were worried about freezing rain though I guess 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Looks like the GFS, Euro, and NAM all give my area about the same amount of qpf. The Euro and NAM change the rain over to snow faster than the GFS thus the higher snowfall amounts. Do you have an opinion on which models may handling that better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here's the 18Z Euro Kuchera from Pivotal Weather. Did Iowa and Missouri 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: Looks like the GFS, Euro, and NAM all give my area about the same amount of qpf. The Euro and NAM change the rain over to snow faster than the GFS thus the higher snowfall amounts. Do you have an opinion on which models may handling that better? To be honest- no clue. I'd blend em all together and avg them. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wow, the 18z Euro has 6" all the way up to Decorah. A few runs ago it had 1-2". Two runs ago the Euro had <1" in Dubuque. Now it has 4". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z Euro Control and Mean 10:1 maps 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Here's the 18Z Euro Kuchera from Pivotal Weather. Did Iowa and Missouri I just realized those snow maps go out to Monday morning, so they include another weak disturbance that passes through late Sunday and adds to the totals over eastern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 21z SREF 10:1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 The trend is favorable for eastern Iowa. The HRRR continues to spread heavier snow farther east. 00z HRRR 3 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Love it. This is looking good and very consistent. Almost all schools and school activities are already canceled here tomorrow! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 FV3-- 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Unless every short term model is wrong, I’ll be upgraded to a warning by morning. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 3km NAM- 3 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM and Euro in good agreement in mby 4-6 inches. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 3km NAM south edition 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yup eastern IA looking better, KC area looking pretty decent too and @Tom still getting some lake fetch from some runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 The clear trend in the snow band is, instead of the band turning south when it enters Iowa, it is now continuing southeast through Iowa before turning south. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 too late to ask for an expanded snow shield to the west, so i get more than 1 or 2 inches of slop? lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, james1976 said: Yup eastern IA looking better, KC area looking pretty decent too and @Tom still getting some lake fetch from some runs. Looks like it's getting close to @OKwx2k4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 HRW- still snowing N.MO 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 FWIW- temps in C and S.IA are running 3-4degress colder than the just updated grids, DSM is allready down to 30F- a full 4 hours ahead and the stratus just rolled in. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: FWIW- temps in C and S.IA are running 3-4degress colder than the just updated grids, DSM is allready down to 30F- a full 4 hours ahead and the stratus just rolled in. Nice. Still at 32 up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 WRF- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Some of these short term models are tossing 12" blips around me. Not expecting that at all but fun to look at and the consistency in the overall track is impressive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 809 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 809 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 18z guidance, specifically the NAM brings more snow accumulation further east. Diving into the details of why this happens and what we need to see in 00z guidance to see if this is a fluke or a trend follows. Snowfall accumulation in the 18z NAM ramps up from 21z to 03z and drops close to 3/4 to one inch an hour for a few hours. This is what increase the eastern snow totals. Looking to forcing, the omegas in the DGZ peak early in the NAM, 15 to 21z and then fall throughout the event. True we get colder, but we see more climo snow ratios at this time. This eastern extension of the higher snow amounts don't seem to be tied with the heavier axis shifting east, as much as additional snow there. The clipper and better CVA are west of the area, where models have consistently had the heaviest snowfall. The NBM has trended east with an additional inch or so to totals, likely from the 18z guidance. The 00z NAM is starting to come in and is backing off all so slightly from the 18z with eastern amounts. Will need to keep an eye on 00z GFS along with ensemble data, which continues to suggest the current forecast is correct. While the differences here are amounts, the impacts are likely to be unchanged unless we can see 1+ inches and hour and drier snow blowing around. With wet snow to start, one would think that the current snowpack would be more sticky to that than drier snow. 00z guidance, especially ensembles will help fine tune forecast overnight. The 00z HRRR is in and, while not as aggressive as the 18z NAM, does have more snow east. This solution would point towards a possible extension of the warning east by one column of counties. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 RDPS- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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