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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”.

Last Winter was great, this one has been an absolute dud… law of averages working it’s way out I guess.

Looks like another yawner tomorrow night/ Saturday here… thinking maybe 1-2” tops here in Omaha.

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro really starting to cut this storm farther inland for the EC peeps...snow to rain scenario for C PA....inching closer to @Niko....I also think we have some OHV lurkers on here that look to score and one member in Ontario, CA I believe...

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Looks interesting, for sure. Lets see if any more westward movements will be in play. Wont take much to put me in the heavy snow accumulation.  Mind you, this used to be wayyyy east. Cant believe how much west it has moved. I think for a time, the GFS was showing rain for Vermont 😆. Nevertheless, bears watching over the coming days.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/F2FE4089-2C10-4B06-935E-87CAB3BE33F3.thumb.png.541d0ce2050d5bd4a312a4827b387455.png

This looks weird.....kinda looks like an upside down triangle.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Interesting tidbit from DMX and the stratus I mentioned may keep the dry air from the northeast away.

A few caveats to the forecast: As saturation occurs early in the
morning, warm air advection wings in northwest to north central
Iowa may produce snow ahead of the main event. This may not be
reflected well in the PoPs at this time. Additionally, winds out
of the east to northeast from the departing high pressure may lead
to some dry air that may undercut saturation early in the east
leading to a potential gradient in snow totals initially. However,
widespread stratus moving into the area may help provide seeder
feeders to overcome this dry air in addition to the long duration
of the event still helping to aide in snowfall totals of 4-7
inches in our far northeast counties of Bremer/Blackhawk.
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59 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Last Winter was great, this one has been an absolute dud… law of averages working it’s way out I guess.

Looks like another yawner tomorrow night/ Saturday here… thinking maybe 1-2” tops here in Omaha.

And school is cancelled for the metro. 🙄

My wife's a teacher and she said the districts were worried about freezing rain though I guess

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8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

image.thumb.png.2aab16a9a7bd4dcc593f854e788d72d6.png

Looks like the GFS, Euro, and NAM all give my area about the same amount of qpf.  The Euro and NAM change the rain over to snow faster than the GFS thus the higher snowfall amounts.  Do you have an opinion on which models may handling that better?

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the GFS, Euro, and NAM all give my area about the same amount of qpf.  The Euro and NAM change the rain over to snow faster than the GFS thus the higher snowfall amounts.  Do you have an opinion on which models may handling that better?

To be honest- no clue. I'd blend em all together and avg them.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Wow, the 18z Euro has 6" all the way up to Decorah.  A few runs ago it had 1-2".

Two runs ago the Euro had <1" in Dubuque.  Now it has 4".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Here's the 18Z Euro Kuchera from Pivotal Weather. Did Iowa and Missouri

I just realized those snow maps go out to Monday morning, so they include another weak disturbance that passes through late Sunday and adds to the totals over eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The trend is favorable for eastern Iowa.  The HRRR continues to spread heavier snow farther east.

00z HRRR

image.thumb.png.ab90d27dbb2550f234cfc6905d94571f.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The clear trend in the snow band is, instead of the band turning south when it enters Iowa, it is now continuing southeast through Iowa before turning south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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FWIW- temps in C and S.IA are running 3-4degress colder than the just updated grids, DSM is allready down to 30F- a full 4 hours ahead and the stratus just rolled in.

image.thumb.png.0b224a804740c56960f709f966703102.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
809 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

18z guidance, specifically the NAM brings more snow accumulation
further east. Diving into the details of why this happens and what
we need to see in 00z guidance to see if this is a fluke or a
trend follows. Snowfall accumulation in the 18z NAM ramps up from
21z to 03z and drops close to 3/4 to one inch an hour for a few
hours. This is what increase the eastern snow totals. Looking to
forcing, the omegas in the DGZ peak early in the NAM, 15 to 21z
and then fall throughout the event. True we get colder, but we see
more climo snow ratios at this time. This eastern extension of the
higher snow amounts don't seem to be tied with the heavier axis
shifting east, as much as additional snow there. The clipper and
better CVA are west of the area, where models have consistently
had the heaviest snowfall. The NBM has trended east with an 
additional inch or so to totals, likely from the 18z guidance. The
00z NAM is starting to come in and is backing off all so slightly
from the 18z with eastern amounts. Will need to keep an eye on 00z
GFS along with ensemble data, which continues to suggest the
current forecast is correct. While the differences here are
amounts, the impacts are likely to be unchanged unless we can see
1+ inches and hour and drier snow blowing around. With wet snow to
start, one would think that the current snowpack would be more
sticky to that than drier snow. 00z guidance, especially ensembles
will help fine tune forecast overnight. 


The 00z HRRR is in and, 
while not as aggressive as the 18z NAM, does have more snow east. 
This solution would point towards a possible extension of the 
warning east by one column of counties. 
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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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