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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom

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The RDPS and GFS are holding steady with 5-6" for CR, so that may be a good prediction.

Sioux City keeps finding new ways to get screwed.  It seems like they've been missed by everything the last couple years.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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24 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The RDPS and GFS are holding steady with 5-6" for CR, so that may be a good prediction.

Sioux City keeps finding new ways to get screwed.  It seems like they've been missed by everything the last couple years.

Ottumwa been a nice bullseye in recent  years. But were playing  catch up this yr

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Took a little nap and woke up to NOAA adding 2 more inches to our forecast from 7 to 9 inches. Earlier today it was going to be 4-5 inches. (I am in Brookings) Managed to find this graphic they updated... they don't usually make evening updates to maps here in NOAA Sioux Falls like this, usually they'd update sometime between 3-5PM and 3-5AM.

Also updated winter storm severity index:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=FSD

 

 

 

StormTotalSnow_FSD.png

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DMX aviation update-

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/
Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

Few changes to previous package. Have increased wind gusts aft 00z
for most locations to the 24 to 28kt range for several hours
resulting in blowing snow. Vsbys and cigs will continue to drop
with cigs already IFR all locations. Per previous package; vsby
will drop to under a mile as snow increases aft 14-15z north sites
and 18-20z south sites for 3 to 5 hours. A brief period of 1/4sm
is possible around KDSM aft 21z, but confidence of occurrence
still somewhat limited. Gradual improvement expected aft 06z to
12z as snow tapers and winds begin to slow. /rev
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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With the Euro upping the CR/IC corridor to 6+", DVN will almost certainly upgrade us to a warning.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I am not convinced that the kc metro will see anymore than 3 or 4 inches... issues with warm air, the fact the storm is tracking nearly on top of them which will cause the best lift to be north and east... KC needs to hope for a little comma head developing that would wrap more snow back west.. if that happens a quick 2-3 extra inches could fall... anyone noticed the warming trend for kc, central mo, and stl?? The GFS and the GEFS all went wetter and warmer... thats my thoughts for tonight.. off to bed awaiting a long day tomorrow... 

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The Snow God's are going to bless IA with this one...what an impressive mid-lat hybrid clipper...you don't get a set up like this very often that takes such a track.  This is a near perfect pivot for C IA and folks nearby...the slow movement and intense rates are going to be quite the wintry scene come later today.  Good luck to ya'll out west...meantime, I'll be lucky to get 1-2" and make up for the lost snow pack over the past couple days.  Down to 1" of solid crust.

 

I see the 0z Euro followed suit and sorta brings the precip shield farther E into N IL....let's see how this all unfolds...this map is eye candy for IA peeps...

1.png

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Some of these are doubled up and that is because of 12Z to 12Z is what a snow day is. Official snow depth is taken at 12Z for daily record keeping. So by looking at this list - and if we go midnight to midnight to for a normal snow day like most think- DSM has chance for top 12 to top 8 of all time 2 day snow events. I've personally worked 5 of these events for KDSM . Tomorrow /SAT hopefully makes it 6!!!!

Now that I just jynxed that chance of happening- here you go-

image.thumb.png.09563f1247d9d846ab70384f21698901.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX- pretty straight forward other than this-

However, a few models, particularly the NAM and Euro do show higher
snowfall in the west and an upgrade may be needed should these
solutions come to fruition.  Overall, no changes to the headlines at
this time.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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For a winter lover and transplant from Minny- it's a great day in C.IA. See below- so serene and beautiful out, it's hard to describe - but those here understand the beauty of mother nature other than just the "draw backs".

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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