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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom
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21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z EC even further west good grief.

1642312800-jt97HE5fHkI.png

EPS mean

1642312800-N11OUb8aqsg.png

The way this is going for MBY all I’m rooting for is some Lake Effect at this point!  LOL, sharing is caring and if it has to go S/SW it better hit KC and your backyard!

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Wow, models are really crashing westward.  A day ago Cedar Rapids was parked in the middle of the heavy band and now we may barely get anything.  The system was still four days away, though, so nothing is ever locked in at that range.  Still, it always stinks to have models tease a biggie for your backyard and then yank the rug out from under you.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

The way this is going for MBY all I’m rooting for is some Lake Effect at this point!  LOL, sharing is caring and if it has to go S/SW it better hit KC and your backyard!

Lol I'm waiting for things to shift back east we'll see how it goes, the models have bit us a few times this Winter.

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lol I'm waiting for things to shift back east we'll see how it goes, the models have bit us a few times this Winter.

The only way it goes back the other way is if the system ends up being stronger which will pull it northward like the 06z NAM and ICON.  I doubt it tho, bc even the 06z Euro has gone more west and hits OMA/LNK directly.

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And now the NAM is the latest model to cave way west.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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AFD from KC office:

The best chance to see precipitation still resides this weekend.
Models depict upper-level flow to take on a squished or pinched
orientation, if you will, placing the steering mechanism for any
disturbances in a north to south pattern directly over the CWA. This
will guide a developing low pressure system ejecting out of Canada
Friday morning to dive south through our region. While moisture
remains lacking at this time, strong upper flow will provide a surge
of moisture from the Pacific, and send it south with the incoming
low pressure center. This is best seen on the 500-300MB moisture
transport and magnitude vectors. As this system enters into the
forecast area Friday evening, rain is likely to begin the event. As
it leaves over the course of Saturday, dropping temps behind an
associated cold front and a potential developing deformation zone,
frozen precip may end the event in our forecast area. While we are
not hanging our hat on any potential solution, this event does prove
itself interesting as the GFS projects it to strengthen as it dives
south and swings back north up the east coast as a strong winter
cyclone.

 

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I can only hope this westward shift is similar to how models shift south in the days leading up to a storm, only to shift back north.  I'm hoping for a shift back east.  I knew being in the bullseye was too good to be true, LOL.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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24 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I can only hope this westward shift is similar to how models shift south in the days leading up to a storm, only to shift back north.  I'm hoping for a shift back east.  I knew being in the bullseye was too good to be true, LOL.  

Being the bullseye that far out usually means you don't end up in the bullseye, but this was also a very rapid shift. Probably not a good sign. I wasn't expecting a huge storm, but starting to worry we might not get anything at all. 

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12z GFS

image.thumb.png.d09e63fc1244560d436099a89cdd0ba6.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z GFS run is exactly what happened in that one clipper system that missed N IL back in March of ‘19 now I that I think of it.  Man, this one is looking juicy for whoever gets the jack zone.  #buildtheglacier

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Would it be "gorilla clipper" in Reed's dictionary? 😜

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 23
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS is great for me, need it just a tad further west for my Kansas friends.

lol...I had already written this off and wasn't aware of the shift until I randomly checked out this thread. Tells you how engaged I am. Probably will still be east of me, but I think it is definitely interested in you buddy...lol

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

lol...I had already written this off and wasn't aware of the shift until I randomly checked out this thread. Tells you how engaged I am. Probably will still be east of me, but I think it is definitely interested in you buddy...lol

I wasn't either until this morning, I was very surprised.  The Euro has a better track for you, I hope all of us get something out of this.

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I mean, good for Sioux City who has been shafted the past 4 years. But I'd still like to see some fresh powder in Duluth, even if it's only a couple inches.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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And of course NAM gives me a bullseye hit in Fargo lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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12z UK... really sharpened the eastern edge.

image.thumb.png.681c030c04573295159a8d1a1c0f3607.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, FAR_Weather said:

I mean, good for Sioux City who has been shafted the past 4 years. But I'd still like to see some fresh powder in Duluth, even if it's only a couple inches.

Duluth and myself look SOL on this one.  I can't really complain about my snow depth, its about average for the date, but I seem to be on the edge or miss completely on any decent snow systems.  

Eastern ND looks like its getting the flip side of average from last year when they hardly got any snow.   

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At least the GFS and GDPS are still solid for eastern Iowa.  I'm expecting the Euro to look more like the UK, though.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Duluth and myself look SOL on this one.  I can't really complain about my snow depth, its about average for the date, but I seem to be on the edge or miss completely on any decent snow systems.  

Eastern ND looks like its getting the flip side of average from last year when they hardly got any snow.   

I honestly might just stay home if I get targeted by this. I have seen approximately 2" of our 14" snowpack fall and I'd hate to not see any more.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Got excited for a bit this morning; looks like it's gonna be another sharpe edge for me. Same for all the storms in my area so far this year. I have been on the edge in every direction; this one will make it the first time on the western edge of a storm. 

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33 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

At least the GFS and GDPS are still solid for eastern Iowa.  I'm expecting the Euro to look more like the UK, though.

For what it’s worth the UK didn’t handle the last system very well. 

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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I think most of Iowa should get something. If I get shafted again and get a quarter inch I won't be happy. Biggest snowfall I've had so far is 3.5 inches, which is obviously more than many others here. Seems I'm in that weird area so far where I get skirted by the storms that do pass, but not a direct hit. Except, for the December 15th madness. That was crazy! Good luck to everyone and even if it isn't me I hope someone can score big with this! The most beautiful thing about weather is, you always get another shot. 😊

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UK and Euro both have Cedar Rapids on the far east edge, very close to getting nothing at all.  It's amazing how quickly one can go from 8-12" to nothing.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro is a Sioux special. The hot spot on I-94 is Jamestown with 5" 10:1.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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GFS and Euro are almost identical for the OAX region. Warning snow for Omaha and 4-5" in Lincoln. GFS expands precip much further into IA. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Could be a monster storm from the deep south to New England.  The Euro is on board big time.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If the European models are right, I'm not staying here. I'm not gonna give up a visit to Duluth to watch 2" fall here lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Could be a monster storm from the deep south to New England.  The Euro is on board big time.

How about this.....Holy Macro! An explosive just waiting to happen.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/69F5C4F0-3AD7-45C9-B275-CB8F13E239F4.thumb.png.c1117209b5f8cbfc4d3c2b8e702eb8c7.png

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/888784331_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000(10).gif.957e9f3da15ce8a7404988886cbececb.gif

 

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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