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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


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No doubt going to be drier than most guidance as most events usually are. The question is how much drier than normal?? I'd say 6-8 in heaviest areas with isolated 8+ in spots at this juncture.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

As shown above it seems like there's some indication of snow continuing for a relatively long time, but I have to wonder if this ends up incorrect. Recent storms seem to have had Canadian high pressure verify stronger than what forecasts expected, leading to not only suppressed storm systems but also less precipitation overall. Good example is the most recent storm system that tracked from Omaha to Chicago, with the heaviest snow verifying south of forecasts and the northern end of the entire snowfall zone ending up drier than projected IIRC.

Not to say this is going to happen here, but if it did, one might think it results in a more westward track (supposing that Canadian HP north of the Great Lakes verifies stronger than forecasted) but also lower amounts as the column is drier than expected. I have more concern with the storm ending up drier than expected. Thoughts?

My office sorta touched on this today.

However, there is
consensus that this system will have ample flow of dry Arctic air to
its west and warm moist Gulf air to its east which sets up a
formidable environment for stark boundaries upping the possibility of
significant winter weather including snow. 
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For once GDR is right (!). I am ultra skeptical that this thing has as much moisture as is being advertised hence why my first call (2") was so conservative. I think this is a widespread 4-6 with isolated pockets of 7-8" and nothing more than that.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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17 minutes ago, GDR said:

Clippers are never that juiced so I would cut the Totals way back

This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out

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9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out

Well said. I never knew about the track staying along the ocean. Typically clippers tend to be along a continental air mass not a maritime one. Models started with a west trend and hopefully now a more juiced one will follow! One thing for sure; I don’t recall a clipper digging that far southeast and then turning into a monster nor’easter. Only one I can recall is the superstorm of 93. That one started in Florida and cut up though. 

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out

Agreed. And this isn't the first time a clipper has forecasted and dropped 6+

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The 00z Euro doubles the 12z totals for the CR/IC area.  I would certainly be satisfied with 4-5".

The Euro's totals (4-8") are much more reasonable than the GFS's (12+").

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season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This isn’t a “standard” clipper coming out of Alberta. It has a lot of Pacific moisture with it. Just follow it’s track in the upper levels. The 500 mb low comes in at Washington state and the energy basically tracks along the border before dropping south and doesn’t dry out

Yup, hence the name "hybrid"...good luck to you and the rest of the OMA/LNK crew....this could be your first real chance of seeing a good snowfall, although, that western edge would be nerve wrecking for me.  I would be more comfortable living in IA and @FAR_Weather, nevertheless, this is setting up to be one potent hybrid.

 

0z Euro...really craps out as it heads south...still though, it would produce the biggest snowfall of the season for many out in the western Sub.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

wider range Euro Kuchera-

image.thumb.png.9ea59ba60515d767e2e9221e27734e9c.png

I think I'm going to start doing the whole "reverse psychology"...it appears to be working!  DSM magnet in full effect...the SREF's are golden.  They were rock solid for the last system that ended up tracking north while all the CAM's and globals were softer on snowfall totals in C/E IA.  I remember checking the SREF's a day before the storm and they were north which ended up being correct.  Good luck Grizz and all the rest in IA/E NE and of course, the KC peeps @Clinton.

My personal opinion, this will end up being a solid warning event for pretty much all of C & S IA with at least a high end advisory for E IA....I'll cherrish the Lake Effect "Flurries" in MBY.  

0z GEFS have stopped shifting around the last few runs and are pretty much locked in...I don't see much variation at this point.  I wouldn't be surprised if we do see more juiced up runs once the energy comes onshore.

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Man, that Hudson Bay Block just explodes....no wonder this system ended up shifting so far west.  On a side note, it does look like the big cities in the east will escape a big dog as this has "eyes" for an inland Nor'Easter.  JB must be salivating this one.  He's way overdue...I'll be rooting for him and my friends and clients in OH.

2.gif

 

@Niko, you could see something outta this if that energy ends up phasing earlier with the secondary trough swinging down through the GL's.

Dang, case in point, the 0z EPS came in juiced and following the GEFS lead...jackzone for C IA...

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Wider view...

 

 

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Jim Flowers mentioned in a video before the W shift ( a few days back and heck even before this event was showing on guidance) that the main cause of center of the nation trough was because of the ridge in the Pacific retrograding. Blocking likely as something to do with it, but he really nailed this on general aspect.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Holy smokes, the 0z Euro Control is "outta control"...FWIW, the past 3 runs in a row have been juicing up....buckle up!  This one has some dynamics in play and just the way systems have been behaving this season I'm going to ride the higher end of guidance for those in the center of the action.

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Will  be interesting reading AFD's soon. Those offices that are discounting the higher totals may certainly be right, but nearly all guidance is increasing the totals - not decreasing. At least not yet which is almost certain to happen. C.IA is not seeing over 1' of snow. But 7-8" is certainly possible, and if so, is not what I'am getting from DMX.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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06ZGFS---- unreal model to model support for heaviest snows- amounts different, but not really that much at this range. System doesn't come ashore until Thursday AM, so changes are still possible but I dont recall a system this consistent model to model this far out. snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX now turning to higher potential totals- the author (Cogil) is a serious veteran and very good forecaster. The others that wrote previous AFD's in the last 36 hours are not -- young and not as experienced. That gives me more confidence that this event will happen with totals over 6" for many as Cogil is an excellent forecaster and does downplay winter events as does the entire office.

All eyes then turn to the shortwave dropping southeast from the
western provinces of Canada. This wave begins to amplify as it drops
into the northern Plains on Friday and becomes a closed low by
Friday night.The baroclinic zone will be draped across the state in
the wake of the shortwave which passes tonight and increasing warm
advection is expected along this axis by early Friday morning.
Isentropic lift intensifies in this corridor with saturation
deepening with time as the forcing slides from the Dakotas and
Minnesota into northern Iowa after daybreak on Friday.  Snow pushes
into the north and expands south and east through the day in the
broad isentropic lift across the state. Meanwhile, strong kinematic
forcing arrives to further support snow into Friday night before
dropping south into Missouri by Saturday morning. Therefore, the
duration of the event is expected to last from 14 to 20 hours in
most locations allowing decent snowfall amounts to accumulate during
that time. Snow ratios are expected to increase throughout the
duration of the storm with 9 to 10:1 initially increasing toward 13
or 14:1 and possibly higher as towards the end.  Lift in the
dendritic zone is decent although initially the depth of the zone is
around 600 to 800m but increases to 1200-1400m by Friday night which
should help to increase ratios as well. With the given QPF, it
appears significant snowfall should occur over a good portion of the
forecast area. Have continued to ramp up messaging with the
probability of snow totals exceeding 2"+ and 6"+ and a watch is
likely to follow this afternoon should all guidance continue to
point in this direction. Concern in particular would be for the
Friday afternoon/evening commute as some of the higher snowfall
rates will be occurring that time through a good portion of central
Iowa and have mentioned that in messaging as well. Surface winds
initially from the southeast will become northeast by Friday night
and increase as the gradient tightens producing some additional
blowing and drifting snow.
DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Lee

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Models have certainly stopped the westward trend. We are riding the edge here in LNK. I figured things were to good to be true yesterday. My gut feeling says we see a trace. Was really hoping to score a couple inches so we could roll on snow removal this weekend. Let’s see how models run today but I’m not holding my breath. 

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