Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z Euro increased totals along the Iowa City/CR corridor a little. So maybe just a tick further east. I hope tonight’s runs shift at least 50 miles east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18Z Euro Kuchera- still snowing in S.IA into MO. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 here is hr 90 of 18Z Euro-- the farthest out I have access to and I think as far it goes-- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z Euro Control and Mean 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Feels like the west shift has settled down a bit. That Euro throws over 6" here. These clippers can dump sometimes! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Would like just little more west shift here 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Winds will be gusting 34-38 on the back side, not blizzard but it will blow the snow around. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: Winds will be gusting 34-38 on the back side, not blizzard but it will blow the snow around. I noticed the isobars looked a bit tighter down that way. The snow should be wetter too. Hopefully it's cold enough up here to fluff it up a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 This looks to be a very potent system. Anyone lands on its bullseye, will score bigly. Good luck to y'all who are in the path of this. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 00Z NAM is going back E... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 00z nam is east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: 00z nam is east Or not? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Central/western Iowa is really looking good. That area hasn't had much snow this season, so they deserve it. I hope the American and Canadian models are right that good snow will make it into eastern Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 00Z nam is juiced- that is not going to happen. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: Or not? Lol It's alot stronger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks a lot like 18z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Trusty 12z Korean model is east, though - there's still hope! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 I found out last minute I have to go to Indianapolis this weekend so Lincoln is golden for this event 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 FWIW, the ICON is farther northeast... although it has been a ne outlier, so it really hasn't changed much. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Canadian models must be having issues today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 RDPS is C.IA dream... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 0z RDPS very similar to the NAM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The heavy snow band didn't move much on the 00z RDPS, but it did trend toward the UK/Euro and pull back the eastward extent. Cedar Rapids drops a few inches this run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 As shown above it seems like there's some indication of snow continuing for a relatively long time, but I have to wonder if this ends up incorrect. Recent storms seem to have had Canadian high pressure verify stronger than what forecasts expected, leading to not only suppressed storm systems but also less precipitation overall. Good example is the most recent storm system that tracked from Omaha to Chicago, with the heaviest snow verifying south of forecasts and the northern end of the entire snowfall zone ending up drier than projected IIRC. Not to say this is going to happen here, but if it did, one might think it results in a more westward track (supposing that Canadian HP north of the Great Lakes verifies stronger than forecasted) but also lower amounts as the column is drier than expected. I have more concern with the storm ending up drier than expected. Thoughts? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 I do expect models to dry up some as we approach to start of system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 No doubt going to be drier than most guidance as most events usually are. The question is how much drier than normal?? I'd say 6-8 in heaviest areas with isolated 8+ in spots at this juncture. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, The Snowman said: As shown above it seems like there's some indication of snow continuing for a relatively long time, but I have to wonder if this ends up incorrect. Recent storms seem to have had Canadian high pressure verify stronger than what forecasts expected, leading to not only suppressed storm systems but also less precipitation overall. Good example is the most recent storm system that tracked from Omaha to Chicago, with the heaviest snow verifying south of forecasts and the northern end of the entire snowfall zone ending up drier than projected IIRC. Not to say this is going to happen here, but if it did, one might think it results in a more westward track (supposing that Canadian HP north of the Great Lakes verifies stronger than forecasted) but also lower amounts as the column is drier than expected. I have more concern with the storm ending up drier than expected. Thoughts? My office sorta touched on this today. However, there is consensus that this system will have ample flow of dry Arctic air to its west and warm moist Gulf air to its east which sets up a formidable environment for stark boundaries upping the possibility of significant winter weather including snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS is W through hr 72-- slams C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GFS continues to target the state of iowa. With the exception of the eastern most locations in the state, it’s advisory to warning level snows for the whole state. 7” for iowa city this run. I could live with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 probably more realistic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GFS is likely too juiced. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: probably more realistic Agree- their algorithm they use for snowfall has always been very good over the years... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2022 Report Share Posted January 12, 2022 Clippers are never that juiced so I would cut the Totals way back 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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