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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


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The 3kNAM is even farther west than the 12k.  The 12k has 2.6" in Cedar Rapids by 00z Saturday.  The 3k has nothing.  I would likely end up with only 1-2" if the run went beyond 60 hrs, which would be the driest run of any model so far.

season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models are cruel go look at what the 6z GFS does to me lol.

lol...I saw that. Brutal. The 12z NAM drops a snow hole pretty close to me. Not sure what we ever did to these models to make them dog us like this...lol

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": Jan 14/15 (3.4"); Season total: 5.1" (30% of seasonal normal 17.1" as of Jan 16, 2022)
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We have the Omaha and KC members riding the western edge, hoping for a nudge west.  We have Cedar Rapids and Iowa City members riding the east edge, hoping we end up on the inside of the sharp edge.  The central Iowa members get to relax.

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season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

DMX morning afd said watches likely by this afternoon if guidance stays consistent 

How about now!! Ha!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1012 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

...Winter Storm to Impact the Area Friday through Late Friday
Night...

.A winter storm with the potential for moderate to heavy snow
accumulations will affect the area Friday into late Friday night.
The snow is expected to cause impacts on travel especially the
evening commute. Winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will
produce blowing and drifting snow.

IAZ004-005-015-023>025-033>037-044>049-057>061-070>075-081>086-
092>097-130015-
/O.NEW.KDMX.WS.A.0001.220114T1500Z-220115T1200Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-
Marshall-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
Including the cities of Estherville, Algona, Emmetsburg,
Pocahontas, Laurens, Rolfe, Fonda, Gilmore City, Humboldt,
Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Sac City, Lake View, Odebolt,
Wall Lake, Schaller, Early, Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City,
Pomeroy, Fort Dodge, Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley,
Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, Ames, Marshalltown, Audubon,
Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee,
Adel, Des Moines, Newton, Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart, Adair,
Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham, Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle,
Pella, Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Corning, Creston, Osceola, Chariton,
Albia, Ottumwa, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr, Lamoni,
Leon, Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, Humeston, Centerville,
and Bloomfield
1012 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible. Locally higher amounts likely.

* WHERE...Central Iowa.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute. Easterly winds of 10
  to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow.
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Well if Lincoln gets 1" and Omaha gets 6" I think I'd rather not be here anyways LOL. Tricky forecast for OAX, I think they probably include Omaha in the watch and leave LNK out. One thing is certain - Indianapolis will be cold and dry. As long as you ignore the GFS....which is so far NW I would probably have issues getting out of there on Sunday. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 2.3" (so far)

Average: 26"

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This thing stabilized yesterday, but now the west trend, or at least the drier east edge trend, has continued.

season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It is always pretty to see this wording in your forecast.

Friday
Snow and freezing drizzle, possibly mixed with drizzle before 2pm, then drizzle and snow between 2pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. High near 36. Southeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
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