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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom
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0z Euro really starting to cut this storm farther inland for the EC peeps...snow to rain scenario for C PA....inching closer to @Niko....I also think we have some OHV lurkers on here that look to score and one member in Ontario, CA I believe...

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Jim Flowers put out a good video highlighting his experience and use of "old school" forecasting techniques. These are typically very accurate and models can struggle to show them.  This was about the inverted trough and how the heavy snow will lay out just east of where that sets up. It's where the winds go from northwest to east. Those with the east wind get heavy precip while those with the northwest wind get dried out.  He showed it being modeled right along the Missouri River or a county west of that.  Models are showing this sharp drop in snowfall fairy well. Living in Saint Joseph, i am quite comfortable being far enough east for the good snows, I just hope it's far enough south. Models have consistently had me on the very south edge of the good snows. Badly need a good one here after getting the shaft a couple weeks ago

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^^ since I started following Flowers last year on f-book, he has really impressed me as a MET. Great guy also from what I hear.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The Euro just keeps that further west solution run after run. I can only hope it’s just a smidge off. The HRRR continues to be well east. Something DVN mentioned in what was a terrific AFD today. The storm is not yet sampled so changes are quite probable with todays model runs. 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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FGF pulled the trigger on a 6-10" warning for all but the far eastern CWA strangely early. Usually they're the last one to issue any headlines.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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On the eastern edge models keep waffling... up a bit, then back down, up a bit again, then back down.  Once again, like last storm, the Euro is on the dry end of the range.  It was wrong last time.

Southwest MN through west/central Iowa is going to get a real nice dumping.  I hope more of us can get in on something like this in February.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

KC office take for today.

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Good luck bud!  I'm rooting for you and your KC neighbors on this one...would suck to see bare ground as the cold comes into the pattern.

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As expected, the 12z HRRR has shifted significantly sw and is now in line with other models.

image.thumb.png.97b3eda878893de0384f0bab4b4b466d.png

 

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, FarmerRick said:

I keep hearing this storm will produce a very wet, heavy snow(low ratios). 

Makes me wonder why everyone is posting Kuchera maps....

 

 

At the onset it will be wet, but then ratios improve to 13 maybe 14 to 1 for the Des Moines area, and Kuchera takes that into account. 

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12z NAM and 3kNAM

Cedar Rapids is really teetering on the fence on some of these models.

image.thumb.png.8841766a5358400d593120aa324667cd.png

image.thumb.png.f9f746db6afc7101a8b20e89c62f46d0.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z FV3 is still a northeast outlier.

image.thumb.png.54678b8619399b08c14e51e66f5cca35.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z NAM and 3kNAM

Cedar Rapids is really teetering on the fence on some of these models.

image.thumb.png.8841766a5358400d593120aa324667cd.png

image.thumb.png.f9f746db6afc7101a8b20e89c62f46d0.png

Indeed - hoping for a repeat of the New Years storm where we stayed on the "right" side

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12z RDPS

image.thumb.png.e103a17917c4e830daae4eba065ea6cc.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Welp, when we end up with 2" it'll be quicker to melt when the temps jump back up into 40s the beginning of next week. Then it's back to dry weather to end the month and mostly above average temps for here according to the GFS. Latest GFS has me 6.2 degrees above normal for the run, which if there's not going to be snow on the ground make it warm.

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12z GFS... sure woulda been nice to get bulls-eyed by this one.

image.thumb.png.2597e1c6e0fe90ae2b83e74af6758b42.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS's trend is not good for kc... it is continued to shift slightly east the past 4 runs or so. This is the 850 mb heights with temp advection. The area just north and east of the low where good low-level WAA is occuring is where the best lift would be. You also tend to not like to see the low track directly over you... this is a good trend for STL, though, where I am now! Also worried about temps for KC.. it really wraps in some warm air and keeps temps 2 degrees or so above freezing for a while. Watching for a continued trend with this solution which would bring heavier snow totals down into parts of northeast Missouri. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 10.21.24 AM.png

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5 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

GFS's trend is not good for kc... it is continued to shift slightly east the past 4 runs or so. This is the 850 mb heights with temp advection. The area just north and east of the low where good low-level WAA is occuring is where the best lift would be. You also tend to not like to see the low track directly over you... this is a good trend for STL, though, where I am now! Also worried about temps for KC.. it really wraps in some warm air and keeps temps 2 degrees or so above freezing for a while. Watching for a continued trend with this solution which would bring heavier snow totals down into parts of northeast Missouri. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 10.21.24 AM.png

Is this system fully sampled now?

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12z GDPS (Canadian)

image.thumb.png.ba4deedd5de81c1d54f8fcc8c5ca201c.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hard to know what model to believe at this point, and certainly future wobbling is possible.  It seems I always end up on the edge of storms, but more times than not still seem to make out ok.  So I'm hoping for 4-6".  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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I'm in Brookings SD so I'm not rooting for the eastward shift. Marshall MN is a good place to live for getting the "big ones" with a fair level of frequency. I've often thought I should move to Ludington MI but I'd probably get annoyed with the lake effect snow after awhile.

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro keeps hope alive for E NE peeps...IA is locked in...eastern side of IA is riding the edge...so are the MSP folks...lake effect signal somewhat better for NE IL....

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I couldn't help but notice the difference in the Kuchera maps between what you posted and what I shared. I use PW and you use weathermodels.com. Are there different Kuchera formulas? I assumed it was the same formula and so the maps across sites would be the same. "My" Kuchera showed Omaha with 7.3" and "your" Kuchera has 10". Kinda weird I thought...

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9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I couldn't help but notice the difference in the Kuchera maps between what you posted and what I shared. I use PW and you use weathermodels.com. Are there different Kuchera formulas? I assumed it was the same formula and so the maps across sites would be the same. "My" Kuchera showed Omaha with 7.3" and "your" Kuchera has 10". Kinda weird I thought...

Ya, each firm seems to have their own algorithm’s in how they calculate kuchera snow ratios.  I know weatherbell also shows a different solution.

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Weatherbell's maps and weathermodels.com maps were developed by the same person, Ryan Maue.  Both sites seem to use an overly-juiced Kuchera algorithm.  One would think all Kuchera maps should be the same.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z Euro is back east a bit, continuing its back-and-forth pattern.  I think this is the best run for Waterloo/CR/IC in a while.

Here's the 10:1 map.

image.thumb.png.f881945035165407412b052797199af3.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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