bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3k NAM also a big shift east in Iowa compared to previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3km nam is much less over Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Big step backwards for Kansas on 00z NAM...nothing we're not used to tho. 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3k NAM not nearly as expansive or as strong as the regular NAM, but the 12z run had about 0.5" for Iowa City, so this is a big jump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 FV3 through 2am, still snowing for the south half of Iowa on south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Full run - Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Meh, Jamestown needs the thumping more than I do. Areas west of me spent the entirety of last winter with completely bare ground, at least I had a couple inches. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Rgem/rdps is east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The nam to me is very suspect because it has a very different solution regarding how it takes the 2 main areas of energy that will be the forcing the snow.... you can see two distinct areas of energy, and it even closes both of them off. This is very different from what other models are showing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 DMX updated at 8:29. They upped totals to 5-10" with locally higher! It was 4-7" with the afternoon update. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX updated at 8:29. They upped totals to 5-10" with locally higher! It was 4-7" with the afternoon update. Cheers to double digits! NWS Omaha has slashed the city's point & click total to less than 4", so I envy your upgrade! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Cheers to double digits! NWS Omaha has slashed the city's point & click total to less than 4", so I envy your upgrade! Trends are not our friend right now... the models seem to be doing this to us a lot this year by flashing something good - only for Mother Nature to eventually take most of it away as the event draws closer. This one looks like an Iowa\ Des Moines special with us getting into some "sloppy seconds" on the west side... which we will have to take this Winter. Hopefully I am wrong, but I will honestly be surprised if we get much more than 2-4" here in Omaha with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 probably more realistic- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Trends are not our friend right now... the models seem to be doing this to us a lot this year by flashing something good - only for Mother Nature to eventually take most of it away as the event draws closer. This one looks like an Iowa\ Des Moines special with us getting into some "sloppy seconds" on the west side... which we will have to take this Winter. Hopefully I am wrong, but I will honestly be surprised if we get much more than 2-4" here in Omaha with this system. That's fair, I agree - here in Omaha we'll have to rely on some type of NAM-like solution that shoots out a band of heavy snow west of the actual primary heavy-snow-zone to give us anything above 5", otherwise 2-5" (isolated 5" at least) seems valid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The consistency continues across the board. Nice to see, for a change. Cobb outputs for DSM consistent around 12 to 13:1, which I will buy especially past sunset into overnight hours. In fact may be underdone for the tail end of the storm. Crossing fingers for double digit total which is hard to get here in central Iowa. And it'll make the guy on local CBS regret his 3 to 6" total he had at 6pm! (New guy initiation) 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said: The consistency continues across the board. Nice to see, for a change. Cobb outputs for DSM consistent around 12 to 13:1, which I will buy especially past sunset into overnight hours. In fact may be underdone for the tail end of the storm. Crossing fingers for double digit total which is hard to get here in central Iowa. And it'll make the guy on local CBS regret his 3 to 6" total he had at 6pm! (New guy initiation) I remember when the guy from Canada was KWWL chief met, it wouldn't matter if we were going to have 20 feet of snow everything was always flurries. The first time he said "heavy flurries" and acted as though he was serious, I didn't know what to think. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Bellona said: I remember when the guy from Canada was KWWL chief met, it wouldn't matter if we were going to have 20 feet of snow everything was always flurries. The first time he said "heavy flurries" and acted as though he was serious, I didn't know what to think. This sounds familiar. What was his name yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, james1976 said: This sounds familiar. What was his name yet? Ian Leonard? Was that it? I can't remember for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 While we are on the topic of bad tv mets (at least kind of on this topic)- the worst I ever saw was in 2003 or 2004 on WOI-TV in DSM. Erin Little (moved to KC for promotion-- how in the hell that happened is beyond me) was the mid day met for the noon news. at about 11:30am the NWS upgraded the advisories to warnings and was calling for 6-8" for the metro for the afternoon and early evening. Erin Little still had winter weather advisories listed in the forecast page for 2-4" WHILE Winter Storm Warnings were scrolling on the bottom-- I get it- no time to change graphics and all, but she NEVER mentioned the upgrade and didn't revise totals. Remember it like yesterday and ended up with 5-7" across the Metro. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bellona said: Ian Leonard? Was that it? I can't remember for sure Yup that's it! Haha I can picture him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 ^^ he is chief for FOX in the Twin Cities and still tight with snow. The other side of the coin was old Dave Dahl on Channel 5 in the Twin Cities. He was ALWAYS OVER predicting snow. It was hilarious and even those not into the weather picked up on it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, BMT said: Good share the snow run by the 0z NAM Blow some over this way please...you guys are looking gold up in IA! Can't say I'm a little bit jelly to be missing out on this one...there's always next time... 2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: Full run - The signal for meso-scale banding off the CAM's is rather significant...should be fun tracking the radar... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 0Z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z Euro keeps hope alive for E NE peeps...IA is locked in...eastern side of IA is riding the edge...so are the MSP folks...lake effect signal somewhat better for NE IL.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z Euro really starting to cut this storm farther inland for the EC peeps...snow to rain scenario for C PA....inching closer to @Niko....I also think we have some OHV lurkers on here that look to score and one member in Ontario, CA I believe... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 My P&C has accumulation 5-9 inches. I'll take that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z EPS upping totals for C IA....trending better for KC folks and into MO... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Jim Flowers put out a good video highlighting his experience and use of "old school" forecasting techniques. These are typically very accurate and models can struggle to show them. This was about the inverted trough and how the heavy snow will lay out just east of where that sets up. It's where the winds go from northwest to east. Those with the east wind get heavy precip while those with the northwest wind get dried out. He showed it being modeled right along the Missouri River or a county west of that. Models are showing this sharp drop in snowfall fairy well. Living in Saint Joseph, i am quite comfortable being far enough east for the good snows, I just hope it's far enough south. Models have consistently had me on the very south edge of the good snows. Badly need a good one here after getting the shaft a couple weeks ago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 ^^ since I started following Flowers last year on f-book, he has really impressed me as a MET. Great guy also from what I hear. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z NAM finally catching up to other models as far as timing goes. At least for central Iowa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 06Z NAM and 3KM 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Euro just keeps that further west solution run after run. I can only hope it’s just a smidge off. The HRRR continues to be well east. Something DVN mentioned in what was a terrific AFD today. The storm is not yet sampled so changes are quite probable with todays model runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The GFS continues to be further east than the Euro. Gives me some hope here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 8" WPC is E fwiw--- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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