Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper

[Bellona]

23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

DMX must be waiting til afternoon package to upgrade to warnings. Or at least til all 12z models are in.

I fully expect everyone wloo on west to be in warnings whenever they do decide to switch.

[bud2380]

To Hawkeye's point.  Here is Pivotal Euro Kuchera vs. WeatherBell

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Using those maps, Pivotal's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids a 14:1 average ratio.  Weatherbell's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids an 18:1 average ratio.  Frankly, even the lower Pivotal kuchera ratio usually does not verify.

Regarding this storm's model trend, this morning has been solid for Cedar Rapids.  4-5" would be a decent storm.

[Clinton]

@mlgamerand @Jayhawker8512z Euro looks nice for us.  

[Jayhawker85]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamerand @Jayhawker8512z Euro looks nice for us.  

I need the Euro and NAM to be right this time since they blew last week

[centralweather44]

Probably end up with a trace here in Lincoln. Good news is if it doesn’t snow we should moderate pretty nice next week. 

[james1976]

You wouldn't even know a storm is comin unless you look at the forecast. 45 and sunny. Snowcover is basically gone.

[Clinton]

12z EPS and GEFS Mean

[bud2380]

Pretty wide discrepancy still between the Euro ensembles and the GEFS 

[The Snowman]

Things are ... ah ... not so great here in Omaha with these latest runs

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR... eastern edge is juiced up a bit again.  It suggests about five hours of 0.5"/hr snow in Cedar Rapids from about 2pm-7pm, so we won't see the heavy rate the last system produced.

[james1976]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

18z HRRR... eastern edge is juiced up a bit again.

That's one of the lowest totals I've seen for DSM

[Grizzcoat]

18 NAM going to destroy C.IA

[james1976]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

18 NAM going to destroy C.IA

DGEX baby!

[Grizzcoat]

18Z NAM seeing extra juice in warmer temps today. Where is the moisture coming from a Clipper? It's all ready here. Just need the dynamics aloft and cold (enough air-- thank goodness it's mid-JAN) and BINGO.

[Tom]

God I hope the HRRR is right with the LES.....

[james1976]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

God I hope the HRRR is right with the LES.....

Is that a tiny 6" bullseye on your backyard?

[Grizzcoat]

3KM nam also following suit. C..IA crusher. I love being E of inverted troughs.

[Hawkeye]

The 3k NAM shows a significant expansion into eastern Iowa as well.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is that a tiny 6" bullseye on your backyard?

3.2" at ORD...I'll 2" and run with it!  LOL.  If the 18z NAM is right, it pulls more moisture into N IL and marry's with lake moisture.  Would be the best outcome here for sure.  Not banking on it but something to hope for if other models see it.

[Grizzcoat]

Reminds of "The Call of Ktulu" by Metallica for C.IA (btw- a great winter driving song for those that go drift busting)

[Clinton]

NAM has me with 6+ and snow is still falling.  Seems like we should just lock this run in!

[hlcater]

Gonna raise my 2" call to 4".

[Grizzcoat]

Havent seen a 3km Nam run this close to the event for mby with these totals since it's inception --

 

[Clinton]

18z NAM finished up nice down here

[bud2380]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Reminds of "The Call of Ktulu" by Metallica for C.IA (btw- a great winter driving song for those that go drift busting)

Call of Ktulu, one of my favorite songs of all time.  I can listen to that anytime.  

[Jayhawker85]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM finished up nice down here

You may score pretty big! Hopefully we can get these surface temps to cool so every flake can stick 

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

You may score pretty big! Hopefully we can get these surface temps to cool so every flake can stick 

The snow starting overnight will help.

[james1976]

Most of IA is being upgraded to a warning. Advisories all the way to the Mississippi River. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

Nam went from not much in central MO to a major major storm.. it is jumping all around.. wouldn't put much weight in it. It did, however, continue the shift east from other models. 

[Hawkeye]

DVN has issued a winter weather advisory for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, expecting 4-6".

[james1976]

Just upgraded to a warning! 6-10". They also moved up the start time to 6am.

[james1976]

I love daytime snowstorms. I really hope this pans out. I'm supposed to actually travel to Des Moines later tomorrow but that may get canceled and if it does I'll get to enjoy this from home which is always my favorite. 

[Hawkeye]

18z RDPS - Nudged southwest

[james1976]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

18z RDPS - Nudged southwest

@Tom will like the lake fetch off this one too.

[bud2380]

The entire state of Iowa is under a warning or advisory.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Boo. D**n WWA for 2-4" of snow.

[Bellona]

DMX taking their sweet a** time with AFD, as ever.

[snowstorm83]

Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”.

[Clinton]

18z GFS 3-6 in the KC area

[bud2380]

GFS on WxBell has the same inflated ratios as on the Euro.  Seems even more pronounced with this storm than normal.

 

[Madtown]

Before you guys knock on the ratios, for this year up here, they have been pretty much spot on. Not saying this storm is the same, but....

[Hawkeye]

[james1976]

Man, low stratus just moved in a while ago. It was like a wall. Went from total sun to low clouds

Gearin  up!

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”.

Last Winter was great, this one has been an absolute dud… law of averages working it’s way out I guess.

Looks like another yawner tomorrow night/ Saturday here… thinking maybe 1-2” tops here in Omaha.

[Niko]

16 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro really starting to cut this storm farther inland for the EC peeps...snow to rain scenario for C PA....inching closer to @Niko....I also think we have some OHV lurkers on here that look to score and one member in Ontario, CA I believe...

Looks interesting, for sure. Lets see if any more westward movements will be in play. Wont take much to put me in the heavy snow accumulation.  Mind you, this used to be wayyyy east. Cant believe how much west it has moved. I think for a time, the GFS was showing rain for Vermont . Nevertheless, bears watching over the coming days.

[Niko]

This looks weird.....kinda looks like an upside down triangle.

[james1976]

Interesting tidbit from DMX and the stratus I mentioned may keep the dry air from the northeast away.

A few caveats to the forecast: As saturation occurs early in the
morning, warm air advection wings in northwest to north central
Iowa may produce snow ahead of the main event. This may not be
reflected well in the PoPs at this time. Additionally, winds out
of the east to northeast from the departing high pressure may lead
to some dry air that may undercut saturation early in the east
leading to a potential gradient in snow totals initially. However,
widespread stratus moving into the area may help provide seeder
feeders to overcome this dry air in addition to the long duration
of the event still helping to aide in snowfall totals of 4-7
inches in our far northeast counties of Bremer/Blackhawk.

[Clinton]

18z Euro 10:1  No much change looks better for the KC area.  I wish WxBell had more reliable Kuchera maps.

[Grizzcoat]