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Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Tom
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23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

DMX must be waiting til afternoon package to upgrade to warnings. Or at least til all 12z models are in.

I fully expect everyone wloo on west to be in warnings whenever they do decide to switch.

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Using those maps, Pivotal's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids a 14:1 average ratio.  Weatherbell's kuchera algorithm gives Cedar Rapids an 18:1 average ratio.  Frankly, even the lower Pivotal kuchera ratio usually does not verify.

Regarding this storm's model trend, this morning has been solid for Cedar Rapids.  4-5" would be a decent storm.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z HRRR... eastern edge is juiced up a bit again.  It suggests about five hours of 0.5"/hr snow in Cedar Rapids from about 2pm-7pm, so we won't see the heavy rate the last system produced.

image.thumb.png.8b34e7c196bbf610324822741af58ce7.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18Z NAM seeing extra juice in warmer temps today. Where is the moisture coming from a Clipper? It's all ready here. Just need the dynamics aloft and cold (enough air-- thank goodness it's mid-JAN) and BINGO.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The 3k NAM shows a significant expansion into eastern Iowa as well.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is that a tiny 6" bullseye on your backyard?

3.2" at ORD...I'll 2" and run with it!  LOL.  If the 18z NAM is right, it pulls more moisture into N IL and marry's with lake moisture.  Would be the best outcome here for sure.  Not banking on it but something to hope for if other models see it.

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Reminds of "The Call of Ktulu" by Metallica for C.IA (btw- a great winter driving song for those that go drift busting)

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Havent seen a 3km Nam run this close to the event for mby with these totals since it's inception --snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Reminds of "The Call of Ktulu" by Metallica for C.IA (btw- a great winter driving song for those that go drift busting)

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Call of Ktulu, one of my favorite songs of all time.  I can listen to that anytime.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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DVN has issued a winter weather advisory for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, expecting 4-6".

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z RDPS - Nudged southwest

image.thumb.png.cb6166436bd47bc90faa4acacaa6c912.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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image.thumb.png.328413664b9431eb78587fc78d47a2e0.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well I caught the ronies so no Indianapolis. And it looks like this has trended in the wrong direction for Lincoln, probably going to be another struggle to hit 2”.

Last Winter was great, this one has been an absolute dud… law of averages working it’s way out I guess.

Looks like another yawner tomorrow night/ Saturday here… thinking maybe 1-2” tops here in Omaha.

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro really starting to cut this storm farther inland for the EC peeps...snow to rain scenario for C PA....inching closer to @Niko....I also think we have some OHV lurkers on here that look to score and one member in Ontario, CA I believe...

1.png

Looks interesting, for sure. Lets see if any more westward movements will be in play. Wont take much to put me in the heavy snow accumulation.  Mind you, this used to be wayyyy east. Cant believe how much west it has moved. I think for a time, the GFS was showing rain for Vermont 😆. Nevertheless, bears watching over the coming days.

Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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Interesting tidbit from DMX and the stratus I mentioned may keep the dry air from the northeast away.

A few caveats to the forecast: As saturation occurs early in the
morning, warm air advection wings in northwest to north central
Iowa may produce snow ahead of the main event. This may not be
reflected well in the PoPs at this time. Additionally, winds out
of the east to northeast from the departing high pressure may lead
to some dry air that may undercut saturation early in the east
leading to a potential gradient in snow totals initially. However,
widespread stratus moving into the area may help provide seeder
feeders to overcome this dry air in addition to the long duration
of the event still helping to aide in snowfall totals of 4-7
inches in our far northeast counties of Bremer/Blackhawk.
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