Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Jan 22nd - 25th Clipper Train/GL's LES


Tom
 Share

Recommended Posts

A classic NW Flow pattern will produce "ripples" of energy along the periphery of the Hudson Bay Vortex starting this weekend into early next week.  Models are fluctuating on strength/track as usual at this range.  Will be interesting to see who gets more snow out of this pattern.  The rich get richer...or...????  Let's discuss...

0z Euro...

1.png

 

0z GFS...

image.png

 

 

0z GDPS...

image.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom pinned this topic

I just took a peek at the 12z models, especially the Canadian and UK and thought, wow a clipper train is coming through.  And sure enough Tom already had this labelled exactly the same.  

 

Here's the UK at only 10:1, but ratios will likely be much higher than that.  The UK is showing clippers for portions of this forum starting Friday, continuing Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  Some clippers are coming in so fast the last one is barely out of the region before another is on it's tails.  It's all about getting lucky in a pattern like this as the snow shields are usually small, but these can be fun if you get hit.  

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every other model besides the 0z GFS/UKIE brings a ribbon of snow here on Sunday...temps will be rather cold during this period so I would expect snow ratios to be on the higher end.  I would love this to verify and whiten things up.

0z Euro...

1.png

 

0z Canadien...

image.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What happens with the more potent clipper on Mon/Tue is where models diverge...

0z Euro is north, Canadien/Ukie south and GFS in the middle...

2.png

 

0z Canadien...this would be amazing if it would happen but its the only model showing such a perfect track for N IL and most of the Lower Lakes region...

 

image.png

 

0z GFS...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT's AFD from yesterday afternoon...

Quote
The "clipper highway" or "clipper train" pattern will feature
24-36 hour intervals of these systems moving into the broader mid-
upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes region. 500 mb ensemble mean
shows the core of the strongest 500 mb winds oriented toward our
general direction. Predictability is still low on the specifics
of these low amplitude disturbances several days out, but what we
can say is regular chances of light to moderate snow accumulations
are possible, depending on the tracks each individual clipper
takes.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models have trended north, so Cedar Rapids is on the southern edge of the Sunday morning clipper and then out of the next one. 🙁

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

South, North... if we're not gonna get much snow (which is fine!), I would really like the current stuff on the ground to melt! Getting to that point in my life where I guess I don't like the snow cover as much unless it's an exciting amount lol

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, East Dubzz said:

South, North... if we're not gonna get much snow (which is fine!), I would really like the current stuff on the ground to melt! Getting to that point in my life where I guess I don't like the snow cover as much unless it's an exciting amount lol

Every time I almost slip on ice, I get jealous of the people in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and the Carolinas who get snow almost every year but then have it go away a day later lol

  • Like 3

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Every time I almost slip on ice, I get jealous of the people in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and the Carolinas who get snow almost every year but then have it go away a day later lol

I also used to not care about the cold weather because I liked it cold in my house and didn't have to turn the furnace up too much, but now that I have a 1-year old and have to make sure her rooms stays warms, it's not as fun when the bill comes due this time of year lol!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro - Sunday morning clipper

image.thumb.png.67fb0878186476a953725c30fea924a8.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pick your model of choice....I'm just really hoping and looking forward to see the snow fly again.  It's been one of those seasons where you have to cherish what "white gold" you can get from nature.  A couple inches on Sunday would be the best case scenario.

image.png

image.png

 

image.png

 

2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM, 3k NAM, and HRRR

image.thumb.png.66c5019ee33fd8afbce6c9f8d088ac81.png

image.thumb.png.b93294607bd343a23c85f93b2faa908a.png

image.thumb.png.5e0db1f10efac110618678f57fb72935.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z NAM, 3k NAM, and HRRR

image.thumb.png.66c5019ee33fd8afbce6c9f8d088ac81.png

image.thumb.png.b93294607bd343a23c85f93b2faa908a.png

image.thumb.png.5e0db1f10efac110618678f57fb72935.png

This one has your area written all over it...riding the southern edge is always rolling the dice to score on the heavier pivot.  Good luck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like some light refreshers snows for the lakes.  We need it.  It's brown and yucky out there.   Outside the immediate lakeshore, we haven't seen more than a trace since Jan 6th.  15 days with no snow.  That's pretty crazy for SWMI in the dead of winter.   And it's been BN temps.  Monday/Tuesday looks like the winner of these systems so far.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z FV3 and RDPS... The RDPS was a south outlier, but has been drifting north every run.  At this point I'd bet on the best snow falling north of Cedar Rapids.  Only the 3k NAM and HRRR have it farther south.

image.thumb.png.d7da83bd411a87cadec7087803a42b85.png

image.thumb.png.c02090447713e15052f6e9ce8d1af250.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS - Nothing in Cedar Rapids

image.thumb.png.930201a774567b4ae01ae91a9c0d2323.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First wave has arrived here. Getting some decent sized flakes right now. 12°F.

  • Like 2

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro

Outside of a couple CAMs (hrrr/3kNam), model agreement is strong.

image.thumb.png.0193884cf58da962c6cc9192e5d7e03a.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Except for the HRRR, which is the lone model tracking the snow through Cedar Rapids (almost certainly wrong), the evening models have gone farther north.  The evening consensus is now Decorah to Dubuque, maybe sw Wisconsin.  The NAMs even suggest up to 5-6" in a few spots.

  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Except for the HRRR, which is the lone model tracking the snow through Cedar Rapids (almost certainly wrong), the evening models have gone farther north.  The evening consensus is now Decorah to Dubuque, maybe sw Wisconsin.  The NAMs even suggest up to 5-6" in a few spots.

Yep. No shot down here. I should go visit my parents.  They look to be in the bullseye. 

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haven't looked at the models till now and I'm pleasantly surprised to see a shift N with the heavier band.  Nearly every single CAM brings a solid 2-4" over N IL, pockets of 5-6" not out of the question if you can get underneath a heavier pivoting band.  Gosh, this would be a nice shot of snow for many of us around here.

0z RGEM...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z NAM...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z WRF's...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

D**n, I'm digging the latest trends off the globals for both clippers as they are all seemingly showing a similar storm track for both systems.  I'm especially intrigued by the amped up run that has suddenly appeared off the 0z Euro for the Sat/Sun wave.  Solid advisory snows for N IL.  I would imagine LOT issue WWA's for tonights package.

1.png

 

The second clipper trended weaker but now takes a better track for MBY...1st map is 10:1 ratios and second includes totals through the 25th.

 

3.png

 

4.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...