Tom Posted January 19, 2022 Report Share Posted January 19, 2022 A classic NW Flow pattern will produce "ripples" of energy along the periphery of the Hudson Bay Vortex starting this weekend into early next week. Models are fluctuating on strength/track as usual at this range. Will be interesting to see who gets more snow out of this pattern. The rich get richer...or...???? Let's discuss... 0z Euro... 0z GFS... 0z GDPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2022 0z GEFS thru next Tues....hit or miss...keeps you on the edge of your seat watching every model run come in... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 19, 2022 Report Share Posted January 19, 2022 I just took a peek at the 12z models, especially the Canadian and UK and thought, wow a clipper train is coming through. And sure enough Tom already had this labelled exactly the same. Here's the UK at only 10:1, but ratios will likely be much higher than that. The UK is showing clippers for portions of this forum starting Friday, continuing Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Some clippers are coming in so fast the last one is barely out of the region before another is on it's tails. It's all about getting lucky in a pattern like this as the snow shields are usually small, but these can be fun if you get hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 19, 2022 Report Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro through the time period. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 Every other model besides the 0z GFS/UKIE brings a ribbon of snow here on Sunday...temps will be rather cold during this period so I would expect snow ratios to be on the higher end. I would love this to verify and whiten things up. 0z Euro... 0z Canadien... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 What happens with the more potent clipper on Mon/Tue is where models diverge... 0z Euro is north, Canadien/Ukie south and GFS in the middle... 0z Canadien...this would be amazing if it would happen but its the only model showing such a perfect track for N IL and most of the Lower Lakes region... 0z GFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 0z GEFS... 0z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 LOT's AFD from yesterday afternoon... Quote The "clipper highway" or "clipper train" pattern will feature 24-36 hour intervals of these systems moving into the broader mid- upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes region. 500 mb ensemble mean shows the core of the strongest 500 mb winds oriented toward our general direction. Predictability is still low on the specifics of these low amplitude disturbances several days out, but what we can say is regular chances of light to moderate snow accumulations are possible, depending on the tracks each individual clipper takes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 06z NAM...tracking the "weenie band" for the late Sat/early Sun wave... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2022 Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 Models have trended north, so Cedar Rapids is on the southern edge of the Sunday morning clipper and then out of the next one. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2022 Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 South, North... if we're not gonna get much snow (which is fine!), I would really like the current stuff on the ground to melt! Getting to that point in my life where I guess I don't like the snow cover as much unless it's an exciting amount lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2022 Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, East Dubzz said: South, North... if we're not gonna get much snow (which is fine!), I would really like the current stuff on the ground to melt! Getting to that point in my life where I guess I don't like the snow cover as much unless it's an exciting amount lol Every time I almost slip on ice, I get jealous of the people in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and the Carolinas who get snow almost every year but then have it go away a day later lol 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 06z GEFS a little better over here... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2022 Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Every time I almost slip on ice, I get jealous of the people in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and the Carolinas who get snow almost every year but then have it go away a day later lol I also used to not care about the cold weather because I liked it cold in my house and didn't have to turn the furnace up too much, but now that I have a 1-year old and have to make sure her rooms stays warms, it's not as fun when the bill comes due this time of year lol! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 Geeze, the 12z GFS is amped...it's also been trying to phase with the southern energy that comes out of the SW. I've noticed several ensembles hinting at this as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2022 Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yeah I think these stay mainly north of me. Can't get em all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2022 Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 12z Euro - Sunday morning clipper Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 12z Euro....for Sunday Kuchera... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 12z Euro is north with the Monday clipper... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Pick your model of choice....I'm just really hoping and looking forward to see the snow fly again. It's been one of those seasons where you have to cherish what "white gold" you can get from nature. A couple inches on Sunday would be the best case scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 0z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z NAM, 3k NAM, and HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Yup watch radar trends. Should fluff up nicely for whoever gets it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z NAM, 3k NAM, and HRRR This one has your area written all over it...riding the southern edge is always rolling the dice to score on the heavier pivot. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 DMX mentions a southward trend calling for 2-3" sat night northeast of Mason City to Waterloo. Bit more south and I could be right in it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Looks like some light refreshers snows for the lakes. We need it. It's brown and yucky out there. Outside the immediate lakeshore, we haven't seen more than a trace since Jan 6th. 15 days with no snow. That's pretty crazy for SWMI in the dead of winter. And it's been BN temps. Monday/Tuesday looks like the winner of these systems so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z FV3 and RDPS... The RDPS was a south outlier, but has been drifting north every run. At this point I'd bet on the best snow falling north of Cedar Rapids. Only the 3k NAM and HRRR have it farther south. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z GFS - Nothing in Cedar Rapids Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 We (LaPorte, IN) got about 6" of very light puffy snow from the LES yesterday. On the plus side, was quite easy to shovel... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 First wave has arrived here. Getting some decent sized flakes right now. 12°F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Not sure if we'll end up in the same bullseye here tomorrow night, but I do like being on the more northern end of the solutions right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z Euro Outside of a couple CAMs (hrrr/3kNam), model agreement is strong. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 What are we looking at for ratios here? Any discussion on that from the NWS offices? Haven't looked much but don't see them on the last couple updates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z Euro...1st wave... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Both clippers... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Euro Saturday night clipper with Kuchera from Pivotal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: Euro Saturday night clipper with Kuchera from Pivotal. Come on....just a little further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 hours ago, tbone8 said: We (LaPorte, IN) got about 6" of very light puffy snow from the LES yesterday. On the plus side, was quite easy to shovel... Whats up tbone!! How you been? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 DMX and local met have 1-3 with locally 4" and 20:1 ratios northcentral into much of eastern IA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, indianajohn said: Whats up tbone!! How you been? Same old crap, different day. Awaiting a visit again from Uncle Lester next week... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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