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Jan 22nd - 25th Clipper Train/GL's LES


Tom

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Except for the HRRR, which is the lone model tracking the snow through Cedar Rapids (almost certainly wrong), the evening models have gone farther north.  The evening consensus is now Decorah to Dubuque, maybe sw Wisconsin.  The NAMs even suggest up to 5-6" in a few spots.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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49 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Except for the HRRR, which is the lone model tracking the snow through Cedar Rapids (almost certainly wrong), the evening models have gone farther north.  The evening consensus is now Decorah to Dubuque, maybe sw Wisconsin.  The NAMs even suggest up to 5-6" in a few spots.

Yep. No shot down here. I should go visit my parents.  They look to be in the bullseye. 

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Haven't looked at the models till now and I'm pleasantly surprised to see a shift N with the heavier band.  Nearly every single CAM brings a solid 2-4" over N IL, pockets of 5-6" not out of the question if you can get underneath a heavier pivoting band.  Gosh, this would be a nice shot of snow for many of us around here.

0z RGEM...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z NAM...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

0z WRF's...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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D**n, I'm digging the latest trends off the globals for both clippers as they are all seemingly showing a similar storm track for both systems.  I'm especially intrigued by the amped up run that has suddenly appeared off the 0z Euro for the Sat/Sun wave.  Solid advisory snows for N IL.  I would imagine LOT issue WWA's for tonights package.

1.png

 

The second clipper trended weaker but now takes a better track for MBY...1st map is 10:1 ratios and second includes totals through the 25th.

 

3.png

 

4.png

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DTX:

The main shortwave and
best PVA slide around the southern end of Lake Michigan and across
central Ohio during the day but shallow isentropic ascent up the
frontal slope paired with some fgen do look to produce some light
snow for much of Southeast Michigan before noon. Accumulations
around an inch or so are expected from the southern border up to
about the I-94 corridor. Still keeping an eye on potential for brief
development of a mesoscale band in this region as hi-res models do
continue to show signal for some low-level convergence to develop
coincident with the wave.

It's 12F out there again this Saturday morning. Might as well do something with this cold air mass other than just pushing the frost line deeper. I'm strong enough now to deal with a 1-3" event.

  • Snow 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And then we "up the ante" for Monday's system. If the 2-4" materializes, it would be the first plow-ready snowfall since the 1st!

DTX:

The next clipper is in quick pursuit for the Monday period as the
next spoke in the broad eastern Canadian trough drops in from the
Upper Midwest. This system should have marginally better moisture
content - increasing to about 2 g/kg in the 850-700mb layer - and a
trajectory more favorable for a widespread light snow across most of
the CWA. Isentropic ascent begins in earnest after midnight to begin
a top-down saturation process that results in light snowfall likely
beginning shortly after sunrise across the Tri-Cities and expanding
south and east through mid-morning. Model cross sections show a
deeper layer of lift as well as lower static stability in the
midlevels contributing to high confidence in widespread accumulating
snowfall. Looking at a 2 to 4 inch event before snow tapers off
Monday night.

  • Snow 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I already tossed this up on the January discussion but as this is from one of the clippers I will toss this up here as well.

 For the 1st time in a while there is new snow on the ground. Just under a half inch here. The temperature here dropped to 11 before rising most of the night to its current point of 19. At this time there is some very light snow falling here.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

It's 12F out there again this Saturday morning. Might as well do something with this cold air mass other than just pushing the frost line deeper. I'm strong enough now to deal with a 1-3" event.

Glad you are starting to feel better. It had dropped to 11 here last night but is now up to 19. And with the new snow on the ground it looks much cleaner then it did yesterday. There is still around 2" of snow on the ground here.

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Several models now show nothing more than a dusting here tonight.  This will be the first area storm to miss Cedar Rapids this winter.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

And then we "up the ante" for Monday's system. If the 2-4" materializes, it would be the first plow-ready snowfall since the 1st!

DTX:

The next clipper is in quick pursuit for the Monday period as the
next spoke in the broad eastern Canadian trough drops in from the
Upper Midwest. This system should have marginally better moisture
content - increasing to about 2 g/kg in the 850-700mb layer - and a
trajectory more favorable for a widespread light snow across most of
the CWA. Isentropic ascent begins in earnest after midnight to begin
a top-down saturation process that results in light snowfall likely
beginning shortly after sunrise across the Tri-Cities and expanding
south and east through mid-morning. Model cross sections show a
deeper layer of lift as well as lower static stability in the
midlevels contributing to high confidence in widespread accumulating
snowfall. Looking at a 2 to 4 inch event before snow tapers off
Monday night.

Hopefully this can be an overachiever and break a 5" total.

Btw: I like what it shows down the road for big snow potential. As Tom mentioned, big possibilty by late Jan and early Feb.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models are increasingly overlapping the next two clippers, so locations in southern WI and northern IL could end up with several inches.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Got updated to WWA. LOT's note

With confidence continuing to increase on a period of steady
moderate, to at times heavy snow rates tonight, we have opted to
issue a winter weather advisory for much of the area, with the
exception of my far southern tier counties. The early morning
forecast guidance continues to support a period of strongly
forced ascent right across northern IL into northwestern IN as a
quick moving clipper system shifts across the area tonight. The
combination of the strongly forced ascent and favorably deep
dendritic growth zone will support a efficient high ratio type
snow up to 20:1. Therefore, it appears snow amounts could end up
in the 2 to 5 inch range, with the highest amounts looking to be
roughly from the Rockford area, east-southeastward into parts of
the Chicago metro area and into northwestern IN.
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Latest on the 4pm package from NOAA:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Snowfall is likely on Monday with 2 to 4 inches
expected across most of Southeast Michigan. Locally higher amounts
near 5 inches cannot be ruled out, especially south of I-94.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, indianajohn said:

WWW canceled for NW indiana going with a WWA… 

Huh?? Come again there John

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting disco from DVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
848 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Radar suggests an uptick in snow intensity west and north of the
area. This looks to be tied to the largscale ascent moving into
the area. RAP omega in the DGZ suggests that we may see less of a
sharp gradient on the southern end of this system. The HRRR still
thinks its going to be much further north, however the more
convective like returns on the back end of the system suggests
that current forecast is on track, if not a little more snow on
the southern end. Generally the 1-3 looks good across the southern
part of the advisory. We will need to watch what happens as the
rain on the backend transitions into cooler air. Potential exists
for increasing the totals on the southern end of the adv.
Regardless, little changes to overall messaging and impacts
associated with this clipper, just fine tuning of amounts.
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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Interesting disco from DVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
848 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Radar suggests an uptick in snow intensity west and north of the
area. This looks to be tied to the largscale ascent moving into
the area. RAP omega in the DGZ suggests that we may see less of a
sharp gradient on the southern end of this system. The HRRR still
thinks its going to be much further north, however the more
convective like returns on the back end of the system suggests
that current forecast is on track, if not a little more snow on
the southern end. Generally the 1-3 looks good across the southern
part of the advisory. We will need to watch what happens as the
rain on the backend transitions into cooler air. Potential exists
for increasing the totals on the southern end of the adv.
Regardless, little changes to overall messaging and impacts
associated with this clipper, just fine tuning of amounts.

Was about to post this as well.  Heavy snow wording added to my point and click.  We’ll see.

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The low was expected to pass south of us, but instead it's moving right over us as I type.  The temperature just jumped to 37º.  We got no precip out of this except for a dusting of snow at the very end.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Love seeing this in the grid...If I can score 4" that would be a big win...based on radar trends it looks possible as the heavier returns are a tad north than what the models were predicting just 24 hours ago.  It's interesting seeing the "waves" on the radar.  The jet dynamics are rather potent with this little clipper.

Jan 23rd ORD Local Forecast.png

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1.2" so far...picked up 0.7" in about 45 min...not bad rates, dendrites are fluffy and "sparkling" from the light coming off of my street lamp.   I enjoy these colder snow systems, esp when they fall on frozen ground.  Can't wait for daylight to see the landscape transformed into a sea of white gold.

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25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here is the 0z Euro through Wed am...

1.png

Say Euro, is that a "5" over my place??

DTX considering a headline for the Monday clipper:

After a two week lull in +1 inch snow events (nearly three weeks for
DTW), a system with appreciable snowfall is set to arrive Monday
morning. Low amplitude troughing within the polar jet will support a
sharpening and strengthening jet streak with the core brushing the
MI/OH state-line. Supporting top-down moisture surge complimented by
strong ThetaE advection within the H8-H7 layer ramps up after 06Z
Monday, although the highest specific humidity air holds further
south. Forecast soundings remain cold, so no question that p-type
will continue as snow throughout the event. Currently looking at
SLRs near 15:1, but if the 5-10 kft layer comes in a bit colder, the
depth of the DGZ would expand substantially, increasing the
potential for higher mean SLR and increased snowfall.

18Z model suite has fallen into better agreement regarding the peak
of the event which now appears centered around the evening commute
with snowfall rates near a half inch per hour. The most likely
outcome for snow totals still holds in the 2-4 inch range by Tuesday
morning. Locally higher amounts near 5 inches cannot be ruled out,
especially south of I-94. Will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory
at this time given the onset is still some 40 hours away and the
duration for the forecast event totals is marginal, particularly for
areas along and north of I-69.
 

  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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