East Dubzz Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1-3” definitely seems like a safe bet here right now. I’m interested to see if we some kind of shift over the next 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Except for the HRRR, which is the lone model tracking the snow through Cedar Rapids (almost certainly wrong), the evening models have gone farther north. The evening consensus is now Decorah to Dubuque, maybe sw Wisconsin. The NAMs even suggest up to 5-6" in a few spots. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Snowing currently with the first clipper! Trace so far. Take what you can! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Except for the HRRR, which is the lone model tracking the snow through Cedar Rapids (almost certainly wrong), the evening models have gone farther north. The evening consensus is now Decorah to Dubuque, maybe sw Wisconsin. The NAMs even suggest up to 5-6" in a few spots. Yep. No shot down here. I should go visit my parents. They look to be in the bullseye. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Haven't looked at the models till now and I'm pleasantly surprised to see a shift N with the heavier band. Nearly every single CAM brings a solid 2-4" over N IL, pockets of 5-6" not out of the question if you can get underneath a heavier pivoting band. Gosh, this would be a nice shot of snow for many of us around here. 0z RGEM... 0z NAM... 0z WRF's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 D**n, I'm digging the latest trends off the globals for both clippers as they are all seemingly showing a similar storm track for both systems. I'm especially intrigued by the amped up run that has suddenly appeared off the 0z Euro for the Sat/Sun wave. Solid advisory snows for N IL. I would imagine LOT issue WWA's for tonights package. The second clipper trended weaker but now takes a better track for MBY...1st map is 10:1 ratios and second includes totals through the 25th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 0z GGEM...for both clippers...this is a sight for sore eyes over here in the "Snow Dome" of the Lower Lakes...heck, even IN is back in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 06z HRRR is following suite and went N with the Sat pm/Sun clipper...this could end up being one interesting potent little wave... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 03z RAP...very similar to the rest of the CAM's....INDY is in the game and what a last minute surprise this would end up being for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 0z EPS/Euro Control thru Tuesday... 0z Euro Control....very good agreement among all the models after seeing all the data... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 06z NAM...locked for a fun weekend...now we just need nature to deliver the goods... 06z NAM3km... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 DTX: The main shortwave and best PVA slide around the southern end of Lake Michigan and across central Ohio during the day but shallow isentropic ascent up the frontal slope paired with some fgen do look to produce some light snow for much of Southeast Michigan before noon. Accumulations around an inch or so are expected from the southern border up to about the I-94 corridor. Still keeping an eye on potential for brief development of a mesoscale band in this region as hi-res models do continue to show signal for some low-level convergence to develop coincident with the wave. It's 12F out there again this Saturday morning. Might as well do something with this cold air mass other than just pushing the frost line deeper. I'm strong enough now to deal with a 1-3" event. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 And then we "up the ante" for Monday's system. If the 2-4" materializes, it would be the first plow-ready snowfall since the 1st! DTX: The next clipper is in quick pursuit for the Monday period as the next spoke in the broad eastern Canadian trough drops in from the Upper Midwest. This system should have marginally better moisture content - increasing to about 2 g/kg in the 850-700mb layer - and a trajectory more favorable for a widespread light snow across most of the CWA. Isentropic ascent begins in earnest after midnight to begin a top-down saturation process that results in light snowfall likely beginning shortly after sunrise across the Tri-Cities and expanding south and east through mid-morning. Model cross sections show a deeper layer of lift as well as lower static stability in the midlevels contributing to high confidence in widespread accumulating snowfall. Looking at a 2 to 4 inch event before snow tapers off Monday night. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 I already tossed this up on the January discussion but as this is from one of the clippers I will toss this up here as well. For the 1st time in a while there is new snow on the ground. Just under a half inch here. The temperature here dropped to 11 before rising most of the night to its current point of 19. At this time there is some very light snow falling here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: It's 12F out there again this Saturday morning. Might as well do something with this cold air mass other than just pushing the frost line deeper. I'm strong enough now to deal with a 1-3" event. Glad you are starting to feel better. It had dropped to 11 here last night but is now up to 19. And with the new snow on the ground it looks much cleaner then it did yesterday. There is still around 2" of snow on the ground here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Several models now show nothing more than a dusting here tonight. This will be the first area storm to miss Cedar Rapids this winter. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: And then we "up the ante" for Monday's system. If the 2-4" materializes, it would be the first plow-ready snowfall since the 1st! DTX: The next clipper is in quick pursuit for the Monday period as the next spoke in the broad eastern Canadian trough drops in from the Upper Midwest. This system should have marginally better moisture content - increasing to about 2 g/kg in the 850-700mb layer - and a trajectory more favorable for a widespread light snow across most of the CWA. Isentropic ascent begins in earnest after midnight to begin a top-down saturation process that results in light snowfall likely beginning shortly after sunrise across the Tri-Cities and expanding south and east through mid-morning. Model cross sections show a deeper layer of lift as well as lower static stability in the midlevels contributing to high confidence in widespread accumulating snowfall. Looking at a 2 to 4 inch event before snow tapers off Monday night. Hopefully this can be an overachiever and break a 5" total. Btw: I like what it shows down the road for big snow potential. As Tom mentioned, big possibilty by late Jan and early Feb. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Clayton county in NE Iowa continues to be in the cross hairs on models. I really should just pay my parents a visit and take this one in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 I'm in an advisory for 1-3" lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Models are increasingly overlapping the next two clippers, so locations in southern WI and northern IL could end up with several inches. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 15 hours ago, tbone8 said: Same old crap, different day. Awaiting a visit again from Uncle Lester next week... yep same here... you keep in touch with Maxx? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Light snow is still falling and I am now at 1" for today. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, westMJim said: Light snow is still falling and I am now at 1" for today. Very light snow here as well. It just keeps redeveloping off the lake. Around 1.2”. Up to 22.3 degrees. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Got updated to WWA. LOT's note With confidence continuing to increase on a period of steady moderate, to at times heavy snow rates tonight, we have opted to issue a winter weather advisory for much of the area, with the exception of my far southern tier counties. The early morning forecast guidance continues to support a period of strongly forced ascent right across northern IL into northwestern IN as a quick moving clipper system shifts across the area tonight. The combination of the strongly forced ascent and favorably deep dendritic growth zone will support a efficient high ratio type snow up to 20:1. Therefore, it appears snow amounts could end up in the 2 to 5 inch range, with the highest amounts looking to be roughly from the Rockford area, east-southeastward into parts of the Chicago metro area and into northwestern IN. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Latest on the 4pm package from NOAA: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Snowfall is likely on Monday with 2 to 4 inches expected across most of Southeast Michigan. Locally higher amounts near 5 inches cannot be ruled out, especially south of I-94. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Short term models are shifting further north with every run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 WWW canceled for NW indiana going with a WWA… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, indianajohn said: WWW canceled for NW indiana going with a WWA… Huh?? Come again there John Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Huh?? Come again there John Your avatar is messed up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Interesting disco from DVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 848 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Radar suggests an uptick in snow intensity west and north of the area. This looks to be tied to the largscale ascent moving into the area. RAP omega in the DGZ suggests that we may see less of a sharp gradient on the southern end of this system. The HRRR still thinks its going to be much further north, however the more convective like returns on the back end of the system suggests that current forecast is on track, if not a little more snow on the southern end. Generally the 1-3 looks good across the southern part of the advisory. We will need to watch what happens as the rain on the backend transitions into cooler air. Potential exists for increasing the totals on the southern end of the adv. Regardless, little changes to overall messaging and impacts associated with this clipper, just fine tuning of amounts. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 A few models are beginning to sag the second clipper down into the CR/IC area. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Interesting disco from DVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 848 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Radar suggests an uptick in snow intensity west and north of the area. This looks to be tied to the largscale ascent moving into the area. RAP omega in the DGZ suggests that we may see less of a sharp gradient on the southern end of this system. The HRRR still thinks its going to be much further north, however the more convective like returns on the back end of the system suggests that current forecast is on track, if not a little more snow on the southern end. Generally the 1-3 looks good across the southern part of the advisory. We will need to watch what happens as the rain on the backend transitions into cooler air. Potential exists for increasing the totals on the southern end of the adv. Regardless, little changes to overall messaging and impacts associated with this clipper, just fine tuning of amounts. Was about to post this as well. Heavy snow wording added to my point and click. We’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Must be a lot of dry air. Nothing hitting the ground 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Ended up with 0.9" yesterday, looks like it'll be nearly 3" today. Could get another inch tomorrow. And this snow is FLUFFY! -3*F. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Snow has picked up and I measured 0.5" on my deck...Let it Snow...radar looks good. Already a few inches down in SW WI and 2" just outside of MKE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 The low was expected to pass south of us, but instead it's moving right over us as I type. The temperature just jumped to 37º. We got no precip out of this except for a dusting of snow at the very end. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Love seeing this in the grid...If I can score 4" that would be a big win...based on radar trends it looks possible as the heavier returns are a tad north than what the models were predicting just 24 hours ago. It's interesting seeing the "waves" on the radar. The jet dynamics are rather potent with this little clipper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro through Wed am... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 1.2" so far...picked up 0.7" in about 45 min...not bad rates, dendrites are fluffy and "sparkling" from the light coming off of my street lamp. I enjoy these colder snow systems, esp when they fall on frozen ground. Can't wait for daylight to see the landscape transformed into a sea of white gold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, Tom said: Here is the 0z Euro through Wed am... Say Euro, is that a "5" over my place?? DTX considering a headline for the Monday clipper: After a two week lull in +1 inch snow events (nearly three weeks for DTW), a system with appreciable snowfall is set to arrive Monday morning. Low amplitude troughing within the polar jet will support a sharpening and strengthening jet streak with the core brushing the MI/OH state-line. Supporting top-down moisture surge complimented by strong ThetaE advection within the H8-H7 layer ramps up after 06Z Monday, although the highest specific humidity air holds further south. Forecast soundings remain cold, so no question that p-type will continue as snow throughout the event. Currently looking at SLRs near 15:1, but if the 5-10 kft layer comes in a bit colder, the depth of the DGZ would expand substantially, increasing the potential for higher mean SLR and increased snowfall. 18Z model suite has fallen into better agreement regarding the peak of the event which now appears centered around the evening commute with snowfall rates near a half inch per hour. The most likely outcome for snow totals still holds in the 2-4 inch range by Tuesday morning. Locally higher amounts near 5 inches cannot be ruled out, especially south of I-94. Will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory at this time given the onset is still some 40 hours away and the duration for the forecast event totals is marginal, particularly for areas along and north of I-69. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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