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Jan 22nd - 25th Clipper Train/GL's LES


Tom

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Say Euro, is that a "5" over my place??

DTX considering a headline for the Monday clipper:

After a two week lull in +1 inch snow events (nearly three weeks for
DTW), a system with appreciable snowfall is set to arrive Monday
morning. Low amplitude troughing within the polar jet will support a
sharpening and strengthening jet streak with the core brushing the
MI/OH state-line. Supporting top-down moisture surge complimented by
strong ThetaE advection within the H8-H7 layer ramps up after 06Z
Monday, although the highest specific humidity air holds further
south. Forecast soundings remain cold, so no question that p-type
will continue as snow throughout the event. Currently looking at
SLRs near 15:1, but if the 5-10 kft layer comes in a bit colder, the
depth of the DGZ would expand substantially, increasing the
potential for higher mean SLR and increased snowfall.

18Z model suite has fallen into better agreement regarding the peak
of the event which now appears centered around the evening commute
with snowfall rates near a half inch per hour. The most likely
outcome for snow totals still holds in the 2-4 inch range by Tuesday
morning. Locally higher amounts near 5 inches cannot be ruled out,
especially south of I-94. Will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory
at this time given the onset is still some 40 hours away and the
duration for the forecast event totals is marginal, particularly for
areas along and north of I-69.
 

Finally, we are in a more typical late JAN clipper pattern...I'm thankful that we are getting some snow.  It hasn't been easy this winter around here.  That goes for @indianajohn @tbone8 and the rest of the IN crew.  It'll be nice to see snow OTG again and I'm excited for the Mon event as it will be falling during the daytime.  It's wonderful to see you back on here bud.  Glad to see your doing much better.  

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Just now, Tom said:

Finally, we are in a more typical late JAN clipper pattern...I'm thankful that we are getting some snow.  It hasn't been easy this winter around here.  That goes for @indianajohn @tbone8 and the rest of the IN crew.  It'll be nice to see snow OTG again and I'm excited for the Mon event as it will be falling during the daytime.  It's wonderful to see you back on here bud.  Glad to see your doing much better.  

Thanks Tom! Normally 12 am to 4 am are absolute hard zzz hours for this guy, but my bio-rhythm has somehow become stuck on what I call "hospital time", lol. You cannot sleep more than 90 mins all night they are coming in and taking vitals. It has messed with my regular M.O. big time. So, here I am up every night now until things shift gears back to normal and checking up on things since we actually have some action to follow! It's great to be feeling better tho I still have very swollen and painful lower extremities. I see a physician tomorrow pm and I fully expect after this doctor sees the situation, she will get me some relief and probably I will be referred to a specialist to oversee the recovery.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks Tom! Normally 12 am to 4 am are absolute hard zzz hours for this guy, but my bio-rhythm has somehow become stuck on what I call "hospital time", lol. You cannot sleep more than 90 mins all night they are coming in and taking vitals. It has messed with my regular M.O. big time. So, here I am up every night now until things shift gears back to normal and checking up on things since we actually have some action to follow! It's great to be feeling better tho I still have very swollen and painful lower extremities. I see a physician tomorrow pm and I fully expect after this doctor sees the situation, she will get me some relief and probably I will be referred to a specialist to oversee the recovery.  

I can relate to what you said wrt to your sleep patterns and making adjustments.  I find myself doing the same thing when I travel back and forth from AZ during the Spring months when the time change makes a 2 hour difference.  Not sure if others feel the same, but lately my sleep patterns haven't been ideal.  Sometimes I wonder if its all the D**n frequencies we have going on in our houses but esp the 5G network.  That's a whole other topic of discussion.  Anyway, take care of your situation and hope for a successful recovery!

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Best returns of the evening as well as larger dendrites...looks like about 1-2 hours left before its done...just measured 2.3" so not the higher end of the forecasts by now but I'll take it.  Hoping to crack 3" and consider it a win.

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51 minutes ago, Tom said:

Best returns of the evening as well as larger dendrites...looks like about 1-2 hours left before its done...just measured 2.3" so not the higher end of the forecasts by now but I'll take it.  Hoping to crack 3" and consider it a win.

Don't look now but it's morning, lol. Maybe auto-correct "fixed" your original words: of the event?

Per DTX, if tomorrow's clipper goes "ideal state" my region could as much as 4". Otherwise looking at a general 2".

The exact north to south orientation of this second area of lift
will be key in the best overall snowfall and at this time it appears
that areas south of I-69 or so will be most in line for the best
snowfall later in the day. In this region, a solid 2 to 3 inches of
snow seems to be a good bet. With some degree of lake aggregate
troughing in place, would not be too surprised to see the surface
cyclone (and hence the location of best deformation) to pivot a bit
further north than models suggest...ie it is doubtful that the best
lift will escape to the south with this system. If this occurs to
any great degree, 4 inches amounts become more likely over southern
and central portions of the forecast area.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Picked up an additional 1.5” of fluff after I went to catch some Zzzz’s.  Final total stands at 3.8” which is a win in my book.  Winds have picked up and are gusty out of the N and it feels and looks like JAN out there.  Winter wonderland!  Have a great Sunday and enjoy the snow!

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Nice wintry look outside. About 1.1" fell in Detroit Metro and near an inch here in Macomb so far. Still snowing lightly, so it could add up a little bit more, b4 ending around midday. Looks like the heaviest snow fell to my south. At this rate, I will accept any snow amount, as long as the ground is white w/ all of this cold air we are experiencing this month.

More accumulating and a more potent system arriving tomorrow w/ at least several inches possible.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Typical schizo weather here. 
High of 65. 
Tomorrow we’ll drop to 56 and cloudy.  
50% chance of rain.  
Thank God. We desperately need it.  

Drought is digging it’s heels in and farmers/ranchers are dealing with feed and crop issues.  

Fire warnings are common especially on windy days.  
This is one angry Niña.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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NOAA:

The third in a series of clipper systems arrives early Monday
morning with the next piece of polar low energy transiting through
The Plains. The surface reflection targets a more northerly track
than today`s as the 1004 mb low swings across southern Lower
Michigan. This has afforded a better opportunity for higher QPF and
snow totals across Southeast Michigan. Expectation is still within
the 2-4 inch range by Monday night, but there has been a northward
expansion of the 3 inch swath. This is tied to colder thermal
profiles and much deeper DGZs north of M-59, thus SLRs are more
likely to fall within the 17:1 to 19:1 range there. Meanwhile, the
QPF bullseye (near two tenths of SWE) now falls between I-94 and M-
59 (albeit with SLRs in the 14:1 to 16:1 range). Half inch per hour snowfall rates will 
occur during this period, and there is a chance for rates to briefly approach an inch 
per hour with developing FGEN near the northern extent of the arctic front.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice steady light snow falling currently. Quiet but very pleasant and wintery. 10 degrees. Picked up close to an inch with last night's clipper. The light snow I'm currently getting means I've received at least some flakes from all 3 of these clippers. Friday night scored a dusting from that first clipper. Nothing significant from any of these but keeps the wintery vibes going and a thin fresh coating.

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DTX pm AFD

The third in a series of clipper systems arrives early Monday
morning with the next piece of polar low energy transiting through
The Plains. The surface reflection targets a more northerly track
than today`s as the 1004 mb low swings across southern Lower
Michigan. This has afforded a better opportunity for higher QPF and
snow totals across Southeast Michigan. Expectation is still within
the 2-4 inch range by Monday night, but there has been a northward
expansion of the 3 inch swath. This is tied to colder thermal
profiles and much deeper DGZs north of M-59, thus SLRs are more
likely to fall within the 17:1 to 19:1 range there. Meanwhile, the
QPF bullseye (near two tenths of SWE) now falls between I-94 and M-
59 (albeit with SLRs in the 14:1 to 16:1 range), but still in the
upper end of the event range (3-4 inches). The signal for isolated 5
inch totals remains very minimal, but non-zero, for the central

portion of the CWA. Tweaked high temps a couple degrees, now
generally in the mid-upper 20s.

They are hesitant on a WWA due to it taking a bit long to get to the expected totals. 

Map looks stout. Finally, south of M-59 getting jacked!

image.png.29bc995e2140b624b04c896d1ec379d5.png

  • Snow 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think we overachieved with today's clipper. Had a solid 2" here. Don't think they were calling for quite that much from this 2nd Clipper. And while the heavier snows were forecasted south near the OH border, I'm certain 3+ was not the forecast for KDTW:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             WYANDOTTE               42.21N 83.16W
01/23/2022  M3.1 INCH        WAYNE              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            28 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

1200 PM     SNOW             1 SE ROMULUS            42.21N 83.35W
01/23/2022  M3.2 INCH        WAYNE              MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            29 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTAL AS OF 12
            PM EST. 2.2 INCHES FELL WITHIN THE PAST 11 HOURS.
            SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR DETROIT METRO AIRPORT.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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30 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX pm AFD

The third in a series of clipper systems arrives early Monday
morning with the next piece of polar low energy transiting through
The Plains. The surface reflection targets a more northerly track
than today`s as the 1004 mb low swings across southern Lower
Michigan. This has afforded a better opportunity for higher QPF and
snow totals across Southeast Michigan. Expectation is still within
the 2-4 inch range by Monday night, but there has been a northward
expansion of the 3 inch swath. This is tied to colder thermal
profiles and much deeper DGZs north of M-59, thus SLRs are more
likely to fall within the 17:1 to 19:1 range there. Meanwhile, the
QPF bullseye (near two tenths of SWE) now falls between I-94 and M-
59 (albeit with SLRs in the 14:1 to 16:1 range), but still in the
upper end of the event range (3-4 inches). The signal for isolated 5
inch totals remains very minimal, but non-zero, for the central

portion of the CWA. Tweaked high temps a couple degrees, now
generally in the mid-upper 20s.

They are hesitant on a WWA due to it taking a bit long to get to the expected totals. 

Map looks stout. Finally, south of M-59 getting jacked!

image.png.29bc995e2140b624b04c896d1ec379d5.png

I have a feeling that we will be somewhere in the 3-6inch range. Also, finally a daytime snowevent.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I think we overachieved with today's clipper. Had a solid 2" here. Don't think they were calling for quite that much from this 2nd Clipper. And while the heavier snows were forecasted south near the OH border, I'm certain 3+ was not the forecast for KDTW:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             WYANDOTTE               42.21N 83.16W
01/23/2022  M3.1 INCH        WAYNE              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            28 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

1200 PM     SNOW             1 SE ROMULUS            42.21N 83.35W
01/23/2022  M3.2 INCH        WAYNE              MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            29 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTAL AS OF 12
            PM EST. 2.2 INCHES FELL WITHIN THE PAST 11 HOURS.
            SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR DETROIT METRO AIRPORT.

Congrats!  Looks like you'll do well with this 3rd one coming down the piper....CAM's suggest a solid 3-4" and that includes the rest of you in S MI.

image.png

 

 

 

image.png

 

The global models really didn't handle this one good at all in the Day 5+ range.  Iirc, the Euro was most robust and hitting the U.P./Northwoods as was the GFS.  The Canadien was advertising the farthest south solution in the extended.  I find it that the Canadien model handles NW Flow systems the best in the medium/long range.

0z GFS...

image.png

 

0z Canadien...

image.png

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
308 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-250000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.220124T1200Z-220125T0000Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
308 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston,
  Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region this
  morning and persist through the afternoon with snowfall rates of
  one half an inch per hour common by midday with rates near one
  inch per hour rates possible at times.
  • NOW until
    7:00pm Mon

    sn.png

    Winter Weather Advisory

  • Today
     

    Today: Snow, mainly after 9am.  High near 25. South wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around 3 inches.

    Snow

    High: 25 °F

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Winds are now starting to pick up. I have blowing snow currently, along w/ moderate snow falling. Already picked up an inch and still all day to go. Temps are in the teens. Gotta luv a daytime frigid snowstorm. This could easily be an overachiever like Jaster said in his statement above.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Only picked up a total of 1.4" today and 3.8" the other day which brings a combined total of 5.2".  Not bad actually when you take into consideration all the models were painting 5-8" swatch across N IL/S WI from the two clippers.  Was hoping to get at least 2"+ today but you can't be greedy in this sorta season.  I love how gorgeous the landscape looks now with a 4" base.  The only caveat with very high ratio snows is it compacts within hours.  Time to add more!  

I found it enjoyable shoveling the driveway and walkways the past couple days.  No heavy lifting and quite easy.  I'll try to post some pics later.

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I'm now a little over 2." Still several more hours to go.  Will post pics probably tomorrow when the landscape is deeper in snow. I can easily see a 5-6" outta this, if not a jackpot 7" in spots.

A lot of blowing snow as winds are really gusty, making the snow fly all around. Temps continue to be in the teens and will remain pretty steady throughout this snowstorm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 minutes ago, Niko said:

I'm now a little over 2." Still several more hours to go.  Will post pics probably tomorrow when the landscape is deeper in snow. I can easily see a 5-6" outta this, if not a jackpot 7" in spots.

A lot of blowing snow as winds are really gusty, making the snow fly all around. Temps continue to be in the teens and will remain pretty steady throughout this snowstorm.

I may be wrong since I haven't actually gone outside, but down/over here in Livonia it looks lackluster as far as new snow on the front parking lot here at work. Radar looks full of holes as well, so pencil me puzzled why DTX issued an even more robust totals map, and just an hour ago. SMH

image.png.122118b209b428f64238fafba20136bd.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Quick update: Just by eyeballing, it looks like so far I have received over 3" and counting. Its coming down moderately. I will go for measurement when it stops. It looks beautiful outside.

  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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