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Jan 22nd - 25th Clipper Train/GL's LES


Tom
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DTX:

The main shortwave and
best PVA slide around the southern end of Lake Michigan and across
central Ohio during the day but shallow isentropic ascent up the
frontal slope paired with some fgen do look to produce some light
snow for much of Southeast Michigan before noon. Accumulations
around an inch or so are expected from the southern border up to
about the I-94 corridor. Still keeping an eye on potential for brief
development of a mesoscale band in this region as hi-res models do
continue to show signal for some low-level convergence to develop
coincident with the wave.

It's 12F out there again this Saturday morning. Might as well do something with this cold air mass other than just pushing the frost line deeper. I'm strong enough now to deal with a 1-3" event.

  • Snow 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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And then we "up the ante" for Monday's system. If the 2-4" materializes, it would be the first plow-ready snowfall since the 1st!

DTX:

The next clipper is in quick pursuit for the Monday period as the
next spoke in the broad eastern Canadian trough drops in from the
Upper Midwest. This system should have marginally better moisture
content - increasing to about 2 g/kg in the 850-700mb layer - and a
trajectory more favorable for a widespread light snow across most of
the CWA. Isentropic ascent begins in earnest after midnight to begin
a top-down saturation process that results in light snowfall likely
beginning shortly after sunrise across the Tri-Cities and expanding
south and east through mid-morning. Model cross sections show a
deeper layer of lift as well as lower static stability in the
midlevels contributing to high confidence in widespread accumulating
snowfall. Looking at a 2 to 4 inch event before snow tapers off
Monday night.

  • Snow 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I already tossed this up on the January discussion but as this is from one of the clippers I will toss this up here as well.

 For the 1st time in a while there is new snow on the ground. Just under a half inch here. The temperature here dropped to 11 before rising most of the night to its current point of 19. At this time there is some very light snow falling here.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

It's 12F out there again this Saturday morning. Might as well do something with this cold air mass other than just pushing the frost line deeper. I'm strong enough now to deal with a 1-3" event.

Glad you are starting to feel better. It had dropped to 11 here last night but is now up to 19. And with the new snow on the ground it looks much cleaner then it did yesterday. There is still around 2" of snow on the ground here.

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Several models now show nothing more than a dusting here tonight.  This will be the first area storm to miss Cedar Rapids this winter.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

And then we "up the ante" for Monday's system. If the 2-4" materializes, it would be the first plow-ready snowfall since the 1st!

DTX:

The next clipper is in quick pursuit for the Monday period as the
next spoke in the broad eastern Canadian trough drops in from the
Upper Midwest. This system should have marginally better moisture
content - increasing to about 2 g/kg in the 850-700mb layer - and a
trajectory more favorable for a widespread light snow across most of
the CWA. Isentropic ascent begins in earnest after midnight to begin
a top-down saturation process that results in light snowfall likely
beginning shortly after sunrise across the Tri-Cities and expanding
south and east through mid-morning. Model cross sections show a
deeper layer of lift as well as lower static stability in the
midlevels contributing to high confidence in widespread accumulating
snowfall. Looking at a 2 to 4 inch event before snow tapers off
Monday night.

Hopefully this can be an overachiever and break a 5" total.

Btw: I like what it shows down the road for big snow potential. As Tom mentioned, big possibilty by late Jan and early Feb.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Models are increasingly overlapping the next two clippers, so locations in southern WI and northern IL could end up with several inches.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Got updated to WWA. LOT's note

With confidence continuing to increase on a period of steady
moderate, to at times heavy snow rates tonight, we have opted to
issue a winter weather advisory for much of the area, with the
exception of my far southern tier counties. The early morning
forecast guidance continues to support a period of strongly
forced ascent right across northern IL into northwestern IN as a
quick moving clipper system shifts across the area tonight. The
combination of the strongly forced ascent and favorably deep
dendritic growth zone will support a efficient high ratio type
snow up to 20:1. Therefore, it appears snow amounts could end up
in the 2 to 5 inch range, with the highest amounts looking to be
roughly from the Rockford area, east-southeastward into parts of
the Chicago metro area and into northwestern IN.
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Latest on the 4pm package from NOAA:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Snowfall is likely on Monday with 2 to 4 inches
expected across most of Southeast Michigan. Locally higher amounts
near 5 inches cannot be ruled out, especially south of I-94.
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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1 hour ago, indianajohn said:

WWW canceled for NW indiana going with a WWA… 

Huh?? Come again there John

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Interesting disco from DVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
848 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Radar suggests an uptick in snow intensity west and north of the
area. This looks to be tied to the largscale ascent moving into
the area. RAP omega in the DGZ suggests that we may see less of a
sharp gradient on the southern end of this system. The HRRR still
thinks its going to be much further north, however the more
convective like returns on the back end of the system suggests
that current forecast is on track, if not a little more snow on
the southern end. Generally the 1-3 looks good across the southern
part of the advisory. We will need to watch what happens as the
rain on the backend transitions into cooler air. Potential exists
for increasing the totals on the southern end of the adv.
Regardless, little changes to overall messaging and impacts
associated with this clipper, just fine tuning of amounts.
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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A few models are beginning to sag the second clipper down into the CR/IC area.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Interesting disco from DVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
848 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

Radar suggests an uptick in snow intensity west and north of the
area. This looks to be tied to the largscale ascent moving into
the area. RAP omega in the DGZ suggests that we may see less of a
sharp gradient on the southern end of this system. The HRRR still
thinks its going to be much further north, however the more
convective like returns on the back end of the system suggests
that current forecast is on track, if not a little more snow on
the southern end. Generally the 1-3 looks good across the southern
part of the advisory. We will need to watch what happens as the
rain on the backend transitions into cooler air. Potential exists
for increasing the totals on the southern end of the adv.
Regardless, little changes to overall messaging and impacts
associated with this clipper, just fine tuning of amounts.

Was about to post this as well.  Heavy snow wording added to my point and click.  We’ll see.

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Ended up with 0.9" yesterday, looks like it'll be nearly 3" today. Could get another inch tomorrow. And this snow is FLUFFY! -3*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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The low was expected to pass south of us, but instead it's moving right over us as I type.  The temperature just jumped to 37º.  We got no precip out of this except for a dusting of snow at the very end.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Love seeing this in the grid...If I can score 4" that would be a big win...based on radar trends it looks possible as the heavier returns are a tad north than what the models were predicting just 24 hours ago.  It's interesting seeing the "waves" on the radar.  The jet dynamics are rather potent with this little clipper.

Jan 23rd ORD Local Forecast.png

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1.2" so far...picked up 0.7" in about 45 min...not bad rates, dendrites are fluffy and "sparkling" from the light coming off of my street lamp.   I enjoy these colder snow systems, esp when they fall on frozen ground.  Can't wait for daylight to see the landscape transformed into a sea of white gold.

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25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here is the 0z Euro through Wed am...

1.png

Say Euro, is that a "5" over my place??

DTX considering a headline for the Monday clipper:

After a two week lull in +1 inch snow events (nearly three weeks for
DTW), a system with appreciable snowfall is set to arrive Monday
morning. Low amplitude troughing within the polar jet will support a
sharpening and strengthening jet streak with the core brushing the
MI/OH state-line. Supporting top-down moisture surge complimented by
strong ThetaE advection within the H8-H7 layer ramps up after 06Z
Monday, although the highest specific humidity air holds further
south. Forecast soundings remain cold, so no question that p-type
will continue as snow throughout the event. Currently looking at
SLRs near 15:1, but if the 5-10 kft layer comes in a bit colder, the
depth of the DGZ would expand substantially, increasing the
potential for higher mean SLR and increased snowfall.

18Z model suite has fallen into better agreement regarding the peak
of the event which now appears centered around the evening commute
with snowfall rates near a half inch per hour. The most likely
outcome for snow totals still holds in the 2-4 inch range by Tuesday
morning. Locally higher amounts near 5 inches cannot be ruled out,
especially south of I-94. Will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory
at this time given the onset is still some 40 hours away and the
duration for the forecast event totals is marginal, particularly for
areas along and north of I-69.
 

  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Say Euro, is that a "5" over my place??

DTX considering a headline for the Monday clipper:

After a two week lull in +1 inch snow events (nearly three weeks for
DTW), a system with appreciable snowfall is set to arrive Monday
morning. Low amplitude troughing within the polar jet will support a
sharpening and strengthening jet streak with the core brushing the
MI/OH state-line. Supporting top-down moisture surge complimented by
strong ThetaE advection within the H8-H7 layer ramps up after 06Z
Monday, although the highest specific humidity air holds further
south. Forecast soundings remain cold, so no question that p-type
will continue as snow throughout the event. Currently looking at
SLRs near 15:1, but if the 5-10 kft layer comes in a bit colder, the
depth of the DGZ would expand substantially, increasing the
potential for higher mean SLR and increased snowfall.

18Z model suite has fallen into better agreement regarding the peak
of the event which now appears centered around the evening commute
with snowfall rates near a half inch per hour. The most likely
outcome for snow totals still holds in the 2-4 inch range by Tuesday
morning. Locally higher amounts near 5 inches cannot be ruled out,
especially south of I-94. Will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory
at this time given the onset is still some 40 hours away and the
duration for the forecast event totals is marginal, particularly for
areas along and north of I-69.
 

Finally, we are in a more typical late JAN clipper pattern...I'm thankful that we are getting some snow.  It hasn't been easy this winter around here.  That goes for @indianajohn @tbone8 and the rest of the IN crew.  It'll be nice to see snow OTG again and I'm excited for the Mon event as it will be falling during the daytime.  It's wonderful to see you back on here bud.  Glad to see your doing much better.  

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Just now, Tom said:

Finally, we are in a more typical late JAN clipper pattern...I'm thankful that we are getting some snow.  It hasn't been easy this winter around here.  That goes for @indianajohn @tbone8 and the rest of the IN crew.  It'll be nice to see snow OTG again and I'm excited for the Mon event as it will be falling during the daytime.  It's wonderful to see you back on here bud.  Glad to see your doing much better.  

Thanks Tom! Normally 12 am to 4 am are absolute hard zzz hours for this guy, but my bio-rhythm has somehow become stuck on what I call "hospital time", lol. You cannot sleep more than 90 mins all night they are coming in and taking vitals. It has messed with my regular M.O. big time. So, here I am up every night now until things shift gears back to normal and checking up on things since we actually have some action to follow! It's great to be feeling better tho I still have very swollen and painful lower extremities. I see a physician tomorrow pm and I fully expect after this doctor sees the situation, she will get me some relief and probably I will be referred to a specialist to oversee the recovery.  

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks Tom! Normally 12 am to 4 am are absolute hard zzz hours for this guy, but my bio-rhythm has somehow become stuck on what I call "hospital time", lol. You cannot sleep more than 90 mins all night they are coming in and taking vitals. It has messed with my regular M.O. big time. So, here I am up every night now until things shift gears back to normal and checking up on things since we actually have some action to follow! It's great to be feeling better tho I still have very swollen and painful lower extremities. I see a physician tomorrow pm and I fully expect after this doctor sees the situation, she will get me some relief and probably I will be referred to a specialist to oversee the recovery.  

I can relate to what you said wrt to your sleep patterns and making adjustments.  I find myself doing the same thing when I travel back and forth from AZ during the Spring months when the time change makes a 2 hour difference.  Not sure if others feel the same, but lately my sleep patterns haven't been ideal.  Sometimes I wonder if its all the D**n frequencies we have going on in our houses but esp the 5G network.  That's a whole other topic of discussion.  Anyway, take care of your situation and hope for a successful recovery!

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Best returns of the evening as well as larger dendrites...looks like about 1-2 hours left before its done...just measured 2.3" so not the higher end of the forecasts by now but I'll take it.  Hoping to crack 3" and consider it a win.

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51 minutes ago, Tom said:

Best returns of the evening as well as larger dendrites...looks like about 1-2 hours left before its done...just measured 2.3" so not the higher end of the forecasts by now but I'll take it.  Hoping to crack 3" and consider it a win.

Don't look now but it's morning, lol. Maybe auto-correct "fixed" your original words: of the event?

Per DTX, if tomorrow's clipper goes "ideal state" my region could as much as 4". Otherwise looking at a general 2".

The exact north to south orientation of this second area of lift
will be key in the best overall snowfall and at this time it appears
that areas south of I-69 or so will be most in line for the best
snowfall later in the day. In this region, a solid 2 to 3 inches of
snow seems to be a good bet. With some degree of lake aggregate
troughing in place, would not be too surprised to see the surface
cyclone (and hence the location of best deformation) to pivot a bit
further north than models suggest...ie it is doubtful that the best
lift will escape to the south with this system. If this occurs to
any great degree, 4 inches amounts become more likely over southern
and central portions of the forecast area.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Picked up an additional 1.5” of fluff after I went to catch some Zzzz’s.  Final total stands at 3.8” which is a win in my book.  Winds have picked up and are gusty out of the N and it feels and looks like JAN out there.  Winter wonderland!  Have a great Sunday and enjoy the snow!

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Nice wintry look outside. About 1.1" fell in Detroit Metro and near an inch here in Macomb so far. Still snowing lightly, so it could add up a little bit more, b4 ending around midday. Looks like the heaviest snow fell to my south. At this rate, I will accept any snow amount, as long as the ground is white w/ all of this cold air we are experiencing this month.

More accumulating and a more potent system arriving tomorrow w/ at least several inches possible.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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15z RAP handled the last clipper pretty well...let's see how it does this time...nice 2-3" refresher??  Snow-on-Snow hasn't been a common theme this winter so whatever does I'll be grateful.

image.png

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Typical schizo weather here. 
High of 65. 
Tomorrow we’ll drop to 56 and cloudy.  
50% chance of rain.  
Thank God. We desperately need it.  

Drought is digging it’s heels in and farmers/ranchers are dealing with feed and crop issues.  

Fire warnings are common especially on windy days.  
This is one angry Niña.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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NOAA:

The third in a series of clipper systems arrives early Monday
morning with the next piece of polar low energy transiting through
The Plains. The surface reflection targets a more northerly track
than today`s as the 1004 mb low swings across southern Lower
Michigan. This has afforded a better opportunity for higher QPF and
snow totals across Southeast Michigan. Expectation is still within
the 2-4 inch range by Monday night, but there has been a northward
expansion of the 3 inch swath. This is tied to colder thermal
profiles and much deeper DGZs north of M-59, thus SLRs are more
likely to fall within the 17:1 to 19:1 range there. Meanwhile, the
QPF bullseye (near two tenths of SWE) now falls between I-94 and M-
59 (albeit with SLRs in the 14:1 to 16:1 range). Half inch per hour snowfall rates will 
occur during this period, and there is a chance for rates to briefly approach an inch 
per hour with developing FGEN near the northern extent of the arctic front.
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Nice steady light snow falling currently. Quiet but very pleasant and wintery. 10 degrees. Picked up close to an inch with last night's clipper. The light snow I'm currently getting means I've received at least some flakes from all 3 of these clippers. Friday night scored a dusting from that first clipper. Nothing significant from any of these but keeps the wintery vibes going and a thin fresh coating.

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DTX pm AFD

The third in a series of clipper systems arrives early Monday
morning with the next piece of polar low energy transiting through
The Plains. The surface reflection targets a more northerly track
than today`s as the 1004 mb low swings across southern Lower
Michigan. This has afforded a better opportunity for higher QPF and
snow totals across Southeast Michigan. Expectation is still within
the 2-4 inch range by Monday night, but there has been a northward
expansion of the 3 inch swath. This is tied to colder thermal
profiles and much deeper DGZs north of M-59, thus SLRs are more
likely to fall within the 17:1 to 19:1 range there. Meanwhile, the
QPF bullseye (near two tenths of SWE) now falls between I-94 and M-
59 (albeit with SLRs in the 14:1 to 16:1 range), but still in the
upper end of the event range (3-4 inches). The signal for isolated 5
inch totals remains very minimal, but non-zero, for the central

portion of the CWA. Tweaked high temps a couple degrees, now
generally in the mid-upper 20s.

They are hesitant on a WWA due to it taking a bit long to get to the expected totals. 

Map looks stout. Finally, south of M-59 getting jacked!

image.png.29bc995e2140b624b04c896d1ec379d5.png

  • Snow 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I think we overachieved with today's clipper. Had a solid 2" here. Don't think they were calling for quite that much from this 2nd Clipper. And while the heavier snows were forecasted south near the OH border, I'm certain 3+ was not the forecast for KDTW:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             WYANDOTTE               42.21N 83.16W
01/23/2022  M3.1 INCH        WAYNE              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            28 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

1200 PM     SNOW             1 SE ROMULUS            42.21N 83.35W
01/23/2022  M3.2 INCH        WAYNE              MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            29 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTAL AS OF 12
            PM EST. 2.2 INCHES FELL WITHIN THE PAST 11 HOURS.
            SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR DETROIT METRO AIRPORT.
  • Like 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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30 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX pm AFD

The third in a series of clipper systems arrives early Monday
morning with the next piece of polar low energy transiting through
The Plains. The surface reflection targets a more northerly track
than today`s as the 1004 mb low swings across southern Lower
Michigan. This has afforded a better opportunity for higher QPF and
snow totals across Southeast Michigan. Expectation is still within
the 2-4 inch range by Monday night, but there has been a northward
expansion of the 3 inch swath. This is tied to colder thermal
profiles and much deeper DGZs north of M-59, thus SLRs are more
likely to fall within the 17:1 to 19:1 range there. Meanwhile, the
QPF bullseye (near two tenths of SWE) now falls between I-94 and M-
59 (albeit with SLRs in the 14:1 to 16:1 range), but still in the
upper end of the event range (3-4 inches). The signal for isolated 5
inch totals remains very minimal, but non-zero, for the central

portion of the CWA. Tweaked high temps a couple degrees, now
generally in the mid-upper 20s.

They are hesitant on a WWA due to it taking a bit long to get to the expected totals. 

Map looks stout. Finally, south of M-59 getting jacked!

image.png.29bc995e2140b624b04c896d1ec379d5.png

I have a feeling that we will be somewhere in the 3-6inch range. Also, finally a daytime snowevent.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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