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November 2015 Observations and Discussion


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42°/17° at this hour. With a wind around 25mph, it is COLD out - but feels like November now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Thanksgiving week system is looking more interesting for those in the Plains/Midwest.  Jim Flowers 30 day cycle suggests that the pattern we saw from Hurricane Patricia should be cycling through right around this time period.  Let's take a look at the North American weather map on 11/24 below...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_19.png

 

2 things that point out which are very interesting to me...1) We see a tropical storm system targeting Mexico near the Baja of California (very close to where Patricia made landfall)...2) We see a Pacific system diving down the west coast into the Rockies.  How these 2 pieces of energy interact is up in the air but the GGEM wants to phase them into 1 system.  Both the GFS/EURO not buying into the tropical system YET but there is plenty of time to watch this unfold.  With a tanking -EPO, that northern piece may get pushed far enough south to interact quicker with the tropical storm.  Let's see how this one evolves.

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While we enjoy feasting on some Turkey on Thanksgiving Day, a big storm system is poised to hit near Japan and set off another major trough and very cold air into that part of the world.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111918/gfs_mslpa_sd_wpac_29.png

 

We all know by now there is a 6-10 day correlation which would place us in the Dec 2-6th time frame.  After a stormy Thanksgiving week in the lower 48, I think there will be a lull in the pattern before it reloads sometime after the 3-5th of December.  What's interesting, and yet fascinating...the CFSv2 over the previous couple days is starting to sniff out this period of colder/stormier weather.  Check out its Week 3 500mb pattern below....its connecting the Alaskan Ridge and poking into the Arctic and down NW NAMER...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111918/cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_4.png

There is that beauty of a trough south of the Aleutians and also in the southern U.S.  The temp anomalies are not that cold in the map below bc it is 3 weeks out.  I expect them to get colder as we get closer...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111918/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_namer_4.png

 

Fun times are to continue ahead...I don't see a warm open to December...unless your on the west coast or in the northeast.

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00z GFS trying to hang back a piece of energy in the 4 corners and ejecting something out post Thanksgiving...after the 20th/21st storm system, our attn will focus on this next big ticket item.  I had a legitimate reason this could be a 2-part system or if the GGEM is right, one big storm in the central CONUS.

 

 

 

 

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Fun times are to continue ahead...I don't see a warm open to December...unless your on the west coast or in the northeast.

 

Kind of weird that there is a cool anomaly over the lake.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That 0z CMC is a mess and if it were to verify my flight back to Ohio next Sunday would be canceled and I would end up missing my last Calculus Midterm, goodthing it's the Crazy Canadian that has it though. (although it did land the 2010 foot of snow storm for North Texas, hopefully it's wrong this time)

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06z GFS still trying to show a post-Thanksgiving snow event for the central Plains...

 

BTW, CFSv2 seems to be erasing the torchy anomalies as we start heading closer towards December...esp near the Rockies/central & southern Plains...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201512.gif

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I'm pretty content with the pattern overall.

 

CFS is really a trend observation type model so seeing the trend there is pretty good. By December 10th it will have December figured out. Lol. It spits out alarming amounts of snow for such a warm model though.

All of the climate models should be taken with a grain of salt.  I like the storminess that is setting up but wont fall into the trap of saying there is a couple of storms in november so it will be like that all winter.  A couple days ago the GFS was advertising record cold to end november.  

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All of the climate models should be taken with a grain of salt. I like the storminess that is setting up but wont fall into the trap of saying there is a couple of storms in november so it will be like that all winter. A couple days ago the GFS was advertising record cold to end november.

Lol. Yeah. We already had that discussion. The reason I commented on the CFS look there though is because it actually looks quite plausible. Extend a line of below normal on up the spine of the Rockies into western Canada and over into the western areas of the Plains a little bit and I really think you have the best look for what is going to happen.

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Lol. Yeah. We already had that discussion. The reason I commented on the CFS look there though is because it actually looks quite plausible. Extend a line of below normal on up the spine of the Rockies into western Canada and over into the western areas of the Plains a little bit and I really think you have the best look for what is going to happen.

Dont necessarily disagree with that. 

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Its another firehose of a rainstorm for the most part.  Pattern is flattening cold shots becoming highly modified.  Check out the Euro behind the thanksgiving storm.  850 mb temps nothing out of the oridinary.  

Indeed, GFS/EURO not as impressive as earlier runs showed.  Still think your area see's some snow out of this pattern next week.  I actually don't mind seeing the insane cold because then our chances of seeing storm systems are increased.  Punishing cold usually suppresses systems south.

 

 

I'm pretty content with the pattern overall.

 

CFS is really a trend observation type model so seeing the trend there is pretty good. By December 10th it will have December figured out. Lol. It spits out alarming amounts of snow for such a warm model though.

On top of that, it is agreeing with the Euro Weeklies in having the primary storm track in the west/central CONUS and dumping the most snows in this area of the lower 48.

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Euro Weeklies continue to show the primary storm track for wintry systems in the west/central states...

 

Edit:  Also, the CFSv2 is looking pretty snowy as well for the month of December

The majority of that in our immediate area would be from today's storm. Looks active but not showing a ton of additional snow

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Indeed, GFS/EURO not as impressive as earlier runs showed.  Still think your area see's some snow out of this pattern next week.  I actually don't mind seeing the insane cold because then our chances of seeing storm systems are increased.  Punishing cold usually suppresses systems south.

 

 

On top of that, it is agreeing with the Euro Weeklies in having the primary storm track in the west/central CONUS and dumping the most snows in this area of the lower 48.

I am holding out hope for next week.  Would take a phase (when is the last time that happened in a winter storm!!) to get anything appreciable.  12z gfs seems to be more favorable.

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I am holding out hope for next week.  Would take a phase (when is the last time that happened in a winter storm!!) to get anything appreciable.  12z gfs seems to be more favorable.

Plenty of time to see this one unfold.  Seems like the GFS is trying to press the cold down faster farther south/east mid next week.  This is a very complex situation.

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Plenty of time to see this one unfold.  Seems like the GFS is trying to press the cold down faster farther south/east mid next week.  This is a very complex situation.

Ya still verbatim it is still a glorified frontal passsage.  The flattening of the pattern is a bit troubling

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12z Euro continues to show signs of pressing the system south/east for Thanksgiving Day. It's now showing a snow storm for NE folks...Omaha and points SE on the warm side.

 

@ Gosaints, your now in the accumulating snow band...talk about threading the needle...ha!

 

This looks like it will be a 2-part system...first one hits on Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday...then a second piece that is lagging behind and also will have tropical influence heads up from TX into the central Plains/Midwest.  Very complex situation here.

 

@ CentralNebWeather, you seem to be in a good spot to see some Thanksgiving snow with daytime temps in the 20's. White Thanksgiving???

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Congrats to everyone getting the snow today. Nothing in central Nebraska today. Looking more likely around here for a thanksgiving snowstorm according to local mets. Last snowstorm here on thanksgiving was 1993 (according to nws Hastings). My future wife and I were dating and the next day went to the Nebraska vs Oklahoma game in Lincoln. I believe it was in the teens and our feet were in snow. Oh the memories.

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