November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Arctic Sea Ice may have just reached the highest extent to date in the past 10 years....wonder if this has any effect to how much cold air can build this Autumn/Winter season.

 

 

Well the more ice there is, the colder it should be since more area is covered in white. Cold air domes should be able to build further in area and have that extra area to avoid becoming modified by open ocean.

 

[Niko]

Gorgeous weather week shaping up. Temps will soar into the 70's with plenty of sunshine. Alot of us on this board will enjoy these warm temps. I'd rather have a warm November now and come December all hell breaks loose with cold and snow and continues into J and F.

 

FWIW: Not all leaves have fallen off the trees yet and there are still some that are greenish with color trying to form for crying out loud. Not too sure if that has to due with the El Nino thing going on, but I will tell you that last year and especially, the year b4 that, most trees were bare by now. I'd say 85 to 90%.

[Grizzcoat]

Des Moines,IA still has not had 32F temp or lower this Fall. The avg first freeze for DSM is 10/14 and the record latest is 11-11 (1882) Good chance it gets broken.

[Tom]

Des Moines,IA still has not had 32F temp or lower this Fall. The avg first freeze for DSM is 10/14 and the record latest is 11-11 (1882) Good chance it gets broken.

Glad to see you back Grizz!

[Tom]

Depending on how long the LRC cycle is this year, I'd say we have a good chance that LRC cycle #2 would start repeating right around Thanksgiving week.  Having said that, I remember the first week of October we had the Hudson Bay low make its presence and the month started off on a chilly note.  We may need to keep an eye on that and see if the models start picking up on it later on.

 

After the streak of 70's this week, next week looks like typical November-like weather around here.  More troughs continue to dig into the PAC NW and swing out into the central CONUS.

 

 

Edit: I think the SE ridge is going to be a key player in our weather pattern heading into Winter.  Models are holding strong and I've noticed the ridging pattern that is setting up south of the Aleutians could be the 2nd phase of this year's LRC.  At times the Aleutian Low builds in this area, but there have been swings in this part of the world.  HP south of the Aleutians usually produces a SE ridge.

[Geos]

Gorgeous weather week shaping up. Temps will soar into the 70's with plenty of sunshine. Alot of us on this board will enjoy these warm temps. I'd rather have a warm November now and come December all hell breaks loose with cold and snow and continues into J and F.

 

FWIW: Not all leaves have fallen off the trees yet and there are still some that are greenish with color trying to form for crying out loud. Not too sure if that has to due with the El Nino thing going on, but I will tell you that last year and especially, the year b4 that, most trees were bare by now. I'd say 85 to 90%.

 

Wow, you have trees with green on them!?

No trees like that around here. Some trees are an off yellow color, but all trees are either bare or have color.

 

Was out today raking in full force. Beautiful day - high of 63°.

[Tom]

The Royals are crowned the Champs.  Well deserved...gotta give credit where credit is earned.  They fought hard and never gave up.  Gary Lezak may have a late start on his Blog tomorrow (he's from KC for those that don't know)! 

[OKwx2k4]

The Royals are crowned the Champs. Well deserved...gotta give credit where credit is earned. They fought hard and never gave up. Gary Lezak may have a late start on his Blog tomorrow (he's from KC for those that don't know)!

Been a fan of KC for a few years also since following several of their players that have come up through the Arkansas Naturals minor league team down here. They're one of the most exciting teams to watch play the game today. Very glad they were able to win it.

 

Doesn't look like anyone in my area will be seeing any high temperature records fall over the next week. Also looking like my latest frost date record will be intact so not stressing out about the weather too much.

[thomas9824]

Yea he just put out the blog. Fireworks we're going off till 2 this morning Lol.

[Tom]

An interesting system showing up around the 10th/11th that the Euro Weeklies picked up on a while ago.  Both GFS/EURO showing a potent system dropping into the PAC NW/Rockies and then ejecting out into the Plains.  00z Euro had a wound up storm hitting the central Plains and dumping snow in NE/SD.  Let's see how this one evolves.

[gosaints]

Cool shots are bound to happen but the first half of november is looking impressive

[james1976]

Models are looking active. Just no cold air to work with yet.

[gabel23]

Models are looking active. Just no cold air to work with yet.

Thank you sky high AO.........

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing something pretty interesting in the Day 9-10 range in the central Plains.  If this does happen, it'll prob end up being a cut-off system as teleconnections don't support phasing.  Nonetheless, a system can form and even produce snows on the NW side.

[gosaints]

Be interesting to watch the CFS's take on december as we travel through november.  Starting off on the warm side for sure

[OKwx2k4]

Thank you sky high AO.........

Yeah. Pretty high. Saw some guidance suggesting that maybe it goes weakly negative after the 17th or so. Just don't know if it will help much. Probably will have to resign to November being close to normal by the time it's all said and done and rainy. Have to see if anything cool happens in the last 1.5 weeks of the month.

[james1976]

Well its only November. Just glad to see some activity on the models. Once winter settles in we will have colder air to work with.

[Maxim]

Some spots getting close to 80 today in Iowa. Des Moines at 78 at the moment.

[OKwx2k4]

Well its only November. Just glad to see some activity on the models. Once winter settles in we will have colder air to work with.

Yeah. I'm not too disheartened by it. The active weather is cool. I hate that the storms keep verifying more to the east than what the models show. Hope that's not a trend that continues for long.

[Andrew NE]

Loving the late season warmth, still no offical freeze yet at the Omaha airport.  I am afraid that while moisture may be plentiful in the central US, this LRC pattern is shaping up to be a warm one. We shall see....

[NEJeremy]

We've made it to 80! Beautiful weather, it's a shame the sun sets so D**n early now. It will be almost dark by the time I get home

[Geos]

We've made it to 80! Beautiful weather, it's a shame the sun sets so D**n early now. It will be almost dark by the time I get home

 

Made it to 72° here, but I won't get to feel the 70s at all today. Probably be in the low 60s by the time I get out of work. Still mild though.

[Grizzcoat]

Some spots getting close to 80 today in Iowa. Des Moines at 78 at the moment.

Official high at DSM was 79F breaking the old record of 78F set in 1938. As I mentioned y-day-- DSM is likely going to break its latest freeze on record-- 11/11-1882 and today DSM tied 2010 at 212 days as the longest timeframe between temps 32F or lower. The last temp 32 or cooler last occurred on 4/4/15-- it's going to be smashed.

[Grizzcoat]

OMA latest freeze is 11/13/1915

OMA longest stretch of not seeing 32F or lower is 218 days in 1924. In order to break that, OMA has to go to 11/28 this year.

[james1976]

I hit 77. Waterloo's record was 77 but im not sure if it was broken or not.
GFS hinting at a nice system for plains/midwest in the 9-10 day range as well as Euro.
Also, a system for some of us late this week.

[Tom]

@ OKwx2k4, Tom Skilling just posted a graphic showing the Top 3 warmest Nov 1-5th opens and this week looks to tie the #2 spot (61.3F).  Interestingly enough, guess what was the #3 spot (59F)????  November 1977...another good omen???  I know you and I have been finding some similarities to the overall wx pattern and I found it coincidental that November 1977 started off very warm as well.  We all know what the Winter turned out to be.

[OKwx2k4]

@ OKwx2k4, Tom Skilling just posted a graphic showing the Top 3 warmest Nov 1-5th opens and this week looks to tie the #2 spot (61.3F). Interestingly enough, guess what was the #3 spot (59F)???? November 1977...another good omen??? I know you and I have been finding some similarities to the overall wx pattern and I found it coincidental that November 1977 started off very warm as well. We all know what the Winter turned out to be.

Yeah. If one was to look at the daily surface maps of November 77, they wouldn't be freaking out at all yet. Unless they hate cold weather of course. :-) I'd have loved to have lived through that winter. 33 days of continuous snowpack as far south as I am is a record not easily matched or broken.

[Geos]

The shoe has to drop sooner or later. I'm thinking more an more that were heading for more cold; at least more than in 1997-98, this winter.

 

Here's the graphic Tom is talking about everyone.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The shoe has to drop sooner or later. I'm thinking more an more that were heading for more cold; at least more than in 1997-98, this winter.

 

Here's the graphic Tom is talking about everyone.

 

 

People out in the PNW have literally been saying this for years now........And we are still waiting.  Looking quite likely that my location is going to set back to back record warm years.  I am sure a +PNA pattern will lock in for the second half of winter and you guys will enjoy some winter cold as we head for an early spring.  Good Luck!   

[OKwx2k4]

The shoe has to drop sooner or later. I'm thinking more an more that were heading for more cold; at least more than in 1997-98, this winter.

 

Here's the graphic Tom is talking about everyone.

 

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/11/TSExplainer_110315-1024x818.jpg

I have to agree with you. You can only pull a rubber band so tight before it breaks. I will say this in advance also, if we do not see a colder than normal winter this year for much of the US, (not just the east) I'd almost put money down that we will next year. I still think we have a great shot at it this year though.

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201512.gif

[OKwx2k4]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201512.gif

That the warmest map you could find? Lol :-)

[gosaints]

That the warmest map you could find? Lol :-)

Well if the CANsips is gonna get thrown around the CFS is definitely fair game.

[Tom]

00z Euro has a system bombing out Day 8-10 in the Plains as it ejects out into NE.  Classic bowling ball system..intensifies into a 982mb SLP near NE/SD border and tracks almost due East into the Lakes.  50mph sustained winds in NE with gusts up to 70mph on the Euro...pretty insane looking storm if it verifies.  Would be a nice early season Blizzard in parts of western NE if that were the case.

[OKwx2k4]

Well if the CANsips is gonna get thrown around the CFS is definitely fair game.

I was only joking.

[Tom]

@Okwx2k4, Euro Ensembles developing an much different pattern Day 10-15 in your part of the world.  It's been showing the southern Plains getting colder/stormier with signs of a neutral/-NAO developing later this month.  Might finally see the change you have been waiting for.

[gosaints]

I was only joking.

I know.  The brutal cold dry winter have turned me against cold and dry.  I am looking forward to some juicy systems (I hope) this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

@Okwx2k4, Euro Ensembles developing an much different pattern Day 10-15 in your part of the world. It's been showing the southern Plains getting colder/stormier with signs of a neutral/-NAO developing later this month. Might finally see the change you have been waiting for.

Nice! Keep talking like that and you're going to make me buy my WxBell subscription back. Lol.

 

@Gosaints, I understand where you come from there. We're in different camps so to speak. You do cold and dry with ease up there while I can see near 70 and/or rain in almost every month of the year down here. I imagine if roles were reversed I may possibly feel the same way.

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing a Bowling Ball storm system Day 8-10 for the Plains/Lakes region.  Blocking HP south of Hudson bay funneling enough cold air into the system to produce snows on the N/NW side of the system.  It's not as wound up as before, but still showing 2-6" snows in NE, 1-5" in IA.  The Track is from KS/C IL/C IN...Winter coming a little early this year???

[westMJim]

Hey I am the new kid on the block. I live just NW of Grand Rapids MI I live about 15 miles NW of the GRR reporting station (airport) 

Right now its a very nice, warm and sunny day. The official reading for GRR is now up to 74° that is 2° below the record (76°) here set in 1938 I will point out that here at my house I now have a temp of 76° we shall see if the official temp can follow.