November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Hey I am the new kid on the block. I live just NW of Grand Rapids MI I live about 15 miles NW of the GRR reporting station (airport) 

Right now its a very nice, warm and sunny day. The official reading for GRR is now up to 74° that is 2° below the record (76°) here set in 1938 I will point out that here at my house I now have a temp of 76° we shall see if the official temp can follow.

welcome aboard!

[james1976]

12z Euro still showing a Bowling Ball storm system Day 8-10 for the Plains/Lakes region.  Blocking HP south of Hudson bay funneling enough cold air into the system to produce snows on the N/NW side of the system.  It's not as wound up as before, but still showing 2-6" snows in NE, 1-5" in IA.  The Track is from KS/C IL/C IN...Winter coming a little early this year???

I believe GFS wants to take the system more northward into Canada. At least we have something to watch!

[jaster220]

Hey I am the new kid on the block. I live just NW of Grand Rapids MI I live about 15 miles NW of the GRR reporting station (airport) 

Right now its a very nice, warm and sunny day. The official reading for GRR is now up to 74° that is 2° below the record (76°) here set in 1938 I will point out that here at my house I now have a temp of 76° we shall see if the official temp can follow.

 

Welcome westMJim! I'm your fellow MI poster over/down in Marshall. There's also a poster or 2 from SEMI when things get more active in the winter.

[ingyball]

12z Euro still showing a Bowling Ball storm system Day 8-10 for the Plains/Lakes region.  Blocking HP south of Hudson bay funneling enough cold air into the system to produce snows on the N/NW side of the system.  It's not as wound up as before, but still showing 2-6" snows in NE, 1-5" in IA.  The Track is from KS/C IL/C IN...Winter coming a little early this year???

What about Central OH?

[OKwx2k4]

Hey I am the new kid on the block. I live just NW of Grand Rapids MI I live about 15 miles NW of the GRR reporting station (airport)

Right now its a very nice, warm and sunny day. The official reading for GRR is now up to 74° that is 2° below the record (76°) here set in 1938 I will point out that here at my house I now have a temp of 76° we shall see if the official temp can follow.

Welcome! I'm the only poster here from Oklahoma I think. Lol.

[Tom]

Hey I am the new kid on the block. I live just NW of Grand Rapids MI I live about 15 miles NW of the GRR reporting station (airport) 

Right now its a very nice, warm and sunny day. The official reading for GRR is now up to 74° that is 2° below the record (76°) here set in 1938 I will point out that here at my house I now have a temp of 76° we shall see if the official temp can follow.

Welcome!  Nice to see more posters showing up this season.  Should be an interesting season around these parts.  LRC so far has kept it rather active around here and in the Plains.

 

 

What about Central OH?

The storm just about makes it into N OH by Day 10...the model doesn't go out farther.

[Geos]

Hey I am the new kid on the block. I live just NW of Grand Rapids MI I live about 15 miles NW of the GRR reporting station (airport) 

Right now its a very nice, warm and sunny day. The official reading for GRR is now up to 74° that is 2° below the record (76°) here set in 1938 I will point out that here at my house I now have a temp of 76° we shall see if the official temp can follow.

 

Welcome to the board! 

 

Nice to have another MI poster here. I'm almost due west of you on the other side of the lake. 

 

---

Who would have known I would have fell short of 70° due to a lake breeze on November 3rd?! haha

[Geos]

People out in the PNW have literally been saying this for years now........And we are still waiting.  Looking quite likely that my location is going to set back to back record warm years.  I am sure a +PNA pattern will lock in for the second half of winter and you guys will enjoy some winter cold as we head for an early spring.  Good Luck!   

 

I know out there you've been pretty bored the last couple winter while we in the Midwest have the winters that resemble the late 70s. I think el Niño will largely take down "the Blob" in the northern Pacific this winter though. Logically guessing, I think you'll have the best shot at the colder conditions early in the winter. I think winter might be slow to start east of the continental divide.

[OKwx2k4]

Hey Tom, any thoughts on when we possibly see some wave 1 activity get underway? I don't really know much about how that stuff works, just what it does.

[Tom]

Just finished some raking in the nick of time before sunset.  Anytime you can do that in a light shirt, that is bonus weather to me.  Seems like the leaves are really starting to fall off as the temps warmed.  There are more bright yellows/reds in the trees now.

 

 

Hey Tom, any thoughts on when we possibly see some wave 1 activity get underway? I don't really know much about how that stuff works, just what it does.

TBH, I'm not sure what that is exactly.  BTW, yesterday I had dinner with a friend of mine and his dad which is a weather enthusiast.  After I saw that graphic Skilling posted, I wanted to ask him if he remembered November 1977.  Before I could finish my sentence, he interrupted me and said, "I remember the beginning of that month real well.  I drove my motorcycle with some friends all the way down to Louisiana for a few days and on our way back up to Chicago the following week, it was Snowing!"  I find it interesting that the Euro is now showing a possible wintry system in the region almost at the same timing as Nov 1977.

 

12z Euro Ensembles paint a nice pattern for more bowling ball systems.  Nice ridge developing near Hudson Bay, jet starting to cut underneath in the Pacific and systems continue to roll in from the West into the Rockies.  Same type of scenario showing up Day 8-10 on the Euro Ensembles and I think the GFS/EURO are showing agreement on the placement of the storm next week.

[westMJim]

Thanks for the "welcome" 

With today's high here in Grand Rapids of 75° (will have to see if it made 76° between hourly reports) will be the warmest November day here in Grand Rapids since a high of 77° on November 6th 1975. So today was a very warm day here in west Michigan. I would like to point out that the winter of 1975/76 was not a strong El Nino year in fact it was a strong La Nina winter! Makes one wonder why so far this fall season is not acting like a "typical" El Nino fall. 

[Tom]

Jim Flowers posted this Euro Snowfall map...

 

[james1976]

Jim Flowers posted this Euro Snowfall map...

 

That's next week, correct?

[james1976]

18z GFS has this system going more east then north now. And very juicy!! Just not much for cold air with it.

[Tom]

That's next week, correct?

Yup...Friday the 13th....Ol' Man Winter trying to "spook" everyone...ha!

[westMJim]

Jim Flowers posted this Euro Snowfall map...

 

We will have to see if this plays out. That could be a big fall storm for the Great Lakes lots of winds. There was a big storm on the lakes in November of 1998 and of course 1975.

BTW GRR did tie the record high for November 3rd today with a high of 76° and that 76° was also the high here at my house. 

[Tom]

We will have to see if this plays out. That could be a big fall storm for the Great Lakes lots of winds. There was a big storm on the lakes in November of 1998 and of course 1975.

BTW GRR did tie the record high for November 3rd today with a high of 76° and that 76° was also the high here at my house. 

I think November 1975 was the year the Edmund Fitzgerald sank, right?  It's nice to see these stronger storms this Autumn.  The one before Halloween was nice...now we have this potential wound up storm.  I like the pattern we are seeing this season.

[Maxim]

We will have to see if this plays out. That could be a big fall storm for the Great Lakes lots of winds. There was a big storm on the lakes in November of 1998 and of course 1975.

BTW GRR did tie the record high for November 3rd today with a high of 76° and that 76° was also the high here at my house. 

D**n, Michigan really torched today.

[OKwx2k4]

Just finished some raking in the nick of time before sunset. Anytime you can do that in a light shirt, that is bonus weather to me. Seems like the leaves are really starting to fall off as the temps warmed. There are more bright yellows/reds in the trees now.

 

 

TBH, I'm not sure what that is exactly. BTW, yesterday I had dinner with a friend of mine and his dad which is a weather enthusiast. After I saw that graphic Skilling posted, I wanted to ask him if he remembered November 1977. Before I could finish my sentence, he interrupted me and said, "I remember the beginning of that month real well. I drove my motorcycle with some friends all the way down to Louisiana for a few days and on our way back up to Chicago the following week, it was Snowing!" I find it interesting that the Euro is now showing a possible wintry system in the region almost at the same timing as Nov 1977.

 

12z Euro Ensembles paint a nice pattern for more bowling ball systems. Nice ridge developing near Hudson Bay, jet starting to cut underneath in the Pacific and systems continue to roll in from the West into the Rockies. Same type of scenario showing up Day 8-10 on the Euro Ensembles and I think the GFS/EURO are showing agreement on the placement of the storm next week.

This is not the first unprovoked similarity I have heard to that year. It's getting pretty eerie now. Lol. Similar but different story here but this one happened over a month ago. I posted a random question to some friends on Facebook about the absolutely huge number of webworms we had all over the trees. There were so many it looked like Halloween decorations all over the place. A friend messages me back and said she asked her mother that question and that she said the old timers always said a very bad winter was coming. When asked the last year she saw this many.....1977. Asked a few more people that I knew would remember that year without providing a clue as to what I was getting at and ALL the answers were or pertained directly to 1977.

 

I don't often share stuff like this on an online forum amongst folks to be criticized but I found it to be either an incredible coincidence or a natural sign of the winter season to come. It's not exactly science but I do believe that the old timers had ways of knowing some things about the weather and seasons to come. Guess we will see if they are right or not.

[Tom]

This is not the first unprovoked similarity I have heard to that year. It's getting pretty eerie now. Lol. Similar but different story here but this one happened over a month ago. I posted a random question to some friends on Facebook about the absolutely huge number of webworms we had all over the trees. There were so many it looked like Halloween decorations all over the place. A friend messages me back and said she asked her mother that question and that she said the old timers always said a very bad winter was coming. When asked the last year she saw this many.....1977. Asked a few more people that I knew would remember that year without providing a clue as to what I was getting at and ALL the answers were or pertained directly to 1977.

 

I don't often share stuff like this on an online forum amongst folks to be criticized but I found it to be either an incredible coincidence or a natural sign of the winter season to come. It's not exactly science but I do believe that the old timers had ways of knowing some things about the weather and seasons to come. Guess we will see if they are right or not.

IMO, it's interesting to look back in the past to find clues through Nature.  Before technology existed, our ancestors used nature to predict the weather long before we were born.  Animals live by it every single day, Humans are animals...we should all have an open mind to it.  Our minds are like Parachutes...it's best used when its Open!

 

Saw this post on WxBell from JB regarding using Deer fat as a guide to Winter:

 

"The story has been told several times here on the Amish looking at the amount of fat on deer as a sign of a long, strong, winter. Last year, it worked like a charm. Well my Deer Hunter has gotten his deer and his report is that it as fat or fatter than last year! Perhaps that means alot of snow on the ground for a long period of time. Or maybe it means nothing. But the test case last year certainly worked, so it will be interesting to see if its the same story this year"

[gabel23]

Must be a foggy one in the state of Illinois?! Pretty much the entire state is under a dense fog advisory.....if you wanna talk folk lore that means expect heavy snow in like 60 days!! I'm liking what the models are showing in the long term; biggest thing in terms of the LRC is let the hot spot be east of the Rockies and a southwest flow! That would be good news for all......Gary lezak has mentioned that quite a lot in his blog. The southerly flow that is.....I'm just hoping the AO and NAO can cooperate.

[Niko]

Whata warm day it was here today. Broke the record high of 76F. Old record was 75F set back in 1987. It was an amazing sunny, warm November day. I even saw a few mosquitoes too. Unbelievable warmth for November standards. Looks to continue unseasonably warm a couple more days before it turns a tad cooler by weeks end, back to normal temperatures, if not a tad above normal still.

[Niko]

Wow, you have trees with green on them!?

No trees like that around here. Some trees are an off yellow color, but all trees are either bare or have color.

 

Was out today raking in full force. Beautiful day - high of 63°.

Believe it or not, yes. Green, with color forming all around. There are plenty of bare trees around, but out of nowhere, you will see a tree that has green leaves, which is very unusual for this time of the year. Its funny because my area has past peak and to see very few trees around with green colors makes it look odd. Go figure right. Never seen that before.

 

I haven't raked yet, although, now is probably the time to do it. A high of 76F for this time of the year sounds phenomenal. That's a record by the way.

[OKwx2k4]

IMO, it's interesting to look back in the past to find clues through Nature. Before technology existed, our ancestors used nature to predict the weather long before we were born. Animals live by it every single day, Humans are animals...we should all have an open mind to it. Our minds are like Parachutes...it's best used when its Open!

 

Saw this post on WxBell from JB regarding using Deer fat as a guide to Winter:

 

"The story has been told several times here on the Amish looking at the amount of fat on deer as a sign of a long, strong, winter. Last year, it worked like a charm. Well my Deer Hunter has gotten his deer and his report is that it as fat or fatter than last year! Perhaps that means alot of snow on the ground for a long period of time. Or maybe it means nothing. But the test case last year certainly worked, so it will be interesting to see if its the same story this year"

Definitely agree. Also, funny you mention deer also. Nephew killed a buck that literally was caped in fat. Some places were almost an inch thick on this thing! Thought it was quite odd. Trees are also holding their leaves for a long time this year. (The ones that didn't get eaten by the worms anyway.) Still have some that are green which I find unusual as well. Time will tell if these mean anything or not. I sure am glad I picked loving the weather of all things. It teaches me something new every year.

[OKwx2k4]

Must be a foggy one in the state of Illinois?! Pretty much the entire state is under a dense fog advisory.....if you wanna talk folk lore that means expect heavy snow in like 60 days!! I'm liking what the models are showing in the long term; biggest thing in terms of the LRC is let the hot spot be east of the Rockies and a southwest flow! That would be good news for all......Gary lezak has mentioned that quite a lot in his blog. The southerly flow that is.....I'm just hoping the AO and NAO can cooperate.

Been foggy here 5 of the last 7 days. I'll take a Christmas to New Years week of snow. :-)

[Geos]

Must be a foggy one in the state of Illinois?! Pretty much the entire state is under a dense fog advisory.....if you wanna talk folk lore that means expect heavy snow in like 60 days!! I'm liking what the models are showing in the long term; biggest thing in terms of the LRC is let the hot spot be east of the Rockies and a southwest flow! That would be good news for all......Gary lezak has mentioned that quite a lot in his blog. The southerly flow that is.....I'm just hoping the AO and NAO can cooperate.

 

No fog here, although it is supposed to form later on. Visibility around 9 miles right now.

[Geos]

Don't know much about webworms, but I know there is signs in nature that can point to what the upcoming winter might be like. The reports of fatty deer are interesting too.

 

I know the squirrels seems to be as busy this autumn as they have been in the last two autumns. Chipmunks have disappeared this week, which I find strange since it is still really nice out. But they were really packing in the seeds and nuts this autumn.

 

Like chilly out there now. Temperature really drops in this dry atmosphere. 

[Grizzcoat]

Local ABC met in the DSM TV market (Edwards) has a high of 44 low of 30 with RASN mix on Friday the 13th. Must be going with the Euro at this time.

[Geos]

Fog is rolling in like no one's business now. Probably about 0.75 mile visibility so far.

[clintbeed1993]

00z GFS totally bombs out the storm next week.  Bombs out over Iowa.  This thing has great potential.  Hopefully it can give us our first snow of the season!

[clintbeed1993]

Not counting on it being cold enough though.

[james1976]

6z GFS keeps the any storms and cold air to the north.

[jaster220]

People out in the PNW have literally been saying this for years now........And we are still waiting.  Looking quite likely that my location is going to set back to back record warm years.  I am sure a +PNA pattern will lock in for the second half of winter and you guys will enjoy some winter cold as we head for an early spring.  Good Luck!   

 

I will sympathize with your situation, but you might remember that we suffered (3) yrs of mostly above normal temps and lower snow storm action just prior to this. 2010, 11, & 12 were not snowless (no such thing in MI as a snowless winter actually) but aside from Chicago's big hit with GHD storm, those were pretty dismal winters especially 11/12. Hang in there, it'll change in your favor.

[Tom]

Haven't seen this much Fog around here in many many years, especially in the Autumn.  The Fog is so dense that the leaves on the tree's are dripping wet from the condensation.  Traffic on the hwy's are worse due to the Fog as well.  Pretty rare to see that happen.

 

@ Gabel, we'll see if your folk lore works 60 days from now!

 

Pretty low visibilities around town...

 

[Geos]

6z GFS keeps the any storms and cold air to the north.

 

Need a -AO to change that.

 

Was pretty foggy, but starting to lift now.

[westMJim]

Believe it or not, yes. Green, with color forming all around. There are plenty of bare trees around, but out of nowhere, you will see a tree that has green leaves, which is very unusual for this time of the year. Its funny because my area has past peak and to see very few trees around with green colors makes it look odd. Go figure right. Never seen that before.

 

I haven't raked yet, although, now is probably the time to do it. A high of 76F for this time of the year sounds phenomenal. That's a record by the way.Th

That high of 76 set a new record for November 3rd for Detroit here in Grand Rapids yesterdays high of 76° tied the record. In Flint their high yesterday of 79° broke their November 3rd record and tied their all time record high for November. It should be noted that for some reason Flint has been running warmer compared to their long term average now for some time. And yes even here in Grand Rapids there are still trees with green leaves on them and I still have roses still in bloom.

[westMJim]

As already stated yesterday tied a record high here in Grand Rapids. And now we look to see if GRR can set another record for today. Today's GRR record is 73° so we do have a good shot at another record. No matter what its is one warm start to November and here in my neck of the woods its unusual not only to have it this warm but to have it this warm and sunny as well that's rare. 

[james1976]

If it doesnt get cold soon the growing season is gonna start again. lol

[Maxim]

lol, the latest CFS run for December has practically all of NA in a torch. Don't think I've ever seen anything like that before, we'll see how it trends throughout the month though.

[OKwx2k4]

If it doesnt get cold soon the growing season is gonna start again. lol

Yeah. It's sad that I'm going to have to mow again so all my snow this winter doesn't have grass sticking up through it making my yard ugly. Lol. Maybe still on track for a frost the 8th according to Tulsa NWS. Here's to hoping.

 

I read this morning that the final Siberian snow cover total for week 44 was 3rd all time so we have that going for us all who love snow.