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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom
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A complex winter storm appears to be showing signs of developing over the central/southern sub to open up the official last month of Met Winter.  There are so many variables at play here that I'm sure we will see many volatile runs.  One thing that is for certain, it'll likely bring a variety of precip types to our members.  Lets discuss...

 

12z GFS...

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12z Canadien...

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

A complex winter storm appears to be showing signs of developing over the central/southern sub to open up the official last month of Met Winter.  There are so many variables at play here that I'm sure we will see many volatile runs.  One thing that is for certain, it'll likely bring a variety of precip types to our members.  Lets discuss...

 

12z GFS...

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12z Canadien...

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The Canadian has a dream scenario for SMI.  Two waves, all snow 24-36 hours of moderate to heavy snowfall.   Will it happen, unlikely.  Could something similar to this? yes.  Something to track finally at least!

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17 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The Canadian has a dream scenario for SMI.  Two waves, all snow 24-36 hours of moderate to heavy snowfall.   Will it happen, unlikely.  Could something similar to this? yes.  Something to track finally at least!

The Canadian would make my whole winter. All the disappointments would be forgotten! 😆

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What are the chances we just get a more west/east based track versus the darn cutting?! Just one time please; that tends to share the wealth more and all year long cutter's haven't been good for me. Teleconnections are all right around neutral you would think that would help. 

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Just now, james1976 said:

Did they usually do that this far out?

I think they go directly off of what the ensembles are showing. Typically if there is good consensus they will do this; I have also seen it shift around a lot! 

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Oops, didn't see this thread.

Anyway, lock in 12Z GFS.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Ugh, the 12z Euro is stronger with the northern stream and very progressive with the front.  Iowa is almost completely bypassed by any precip.  It's very similar to what the Canadian is showing... quite good for areas east of Iowa.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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12z Euro...time for the GFS to play catch up??  Both the EPO/AO head negative during this period which is great for the cold to press.  The more we see separation of the lead wave up north, the better chance for a bigger or larger scale storm to develop. 

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Initial thoughts from GRR:  

 

- POSSIBLE IMPACTFUL PATTERN FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK     IT HAS BEEN SOME TIME SINCE WE HAVE SEEN A STRONGER SURGE OF GULF   MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA...BUT THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE   SHOWING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL   FOR HEAVIER QPF IS SHOWN TO EXIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE   ABOVE FREEZING HERE IN THE CWA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A   SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER   PLAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL AS ONE   OR MORE WAVES LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ONSET OF THE   PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TUESDAY COULD FEATURE RAIN   GIVEN GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...BUT AS THE ARCTIC   AIR FILTERS IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO   WEDNESDAY. AGAIN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD END UP HEAVY SO   CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED. IF WE END UP WITH MOSTLY   RAIN...WE WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER THE IMPACTS TO THE   RIVERS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ICE IN PLACE. IF IT ENDS UP AS MOSTLY   SNOW...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. ALSO A ZONE OF FREEZING   RAIN IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SO THOSE IMPACTS ARE   ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION.  

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Ugh, the 12z Euro is stronger with the northern stream and very progressive with the front.  Iowa is almost completely bypassed by any precip.  It's very similar to what the Canadian is showing... quite good for areas east of Iowa.

If the Euro and GFS meet in the middle we'll likely be in or near the bullseye, so let's hope that's the case. 

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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DMX's thoughts --

Said weather maker continues to be pretty well depicted within
deterministic guidance and to varying degrees within ensemble
guidance. What is certain is that the large scale pattern will
change by the end of the weekend as the pattern flattens and
eventually turns SW ahead of a western trough kicking out early-mid
next week. There is also growing certainty in a precipitation event
around Tuesday PM into Wednesday or longer. What is less certain are
the details of timing/duration/QPF/Ptype, such as does the Gulf of
Mexico open up in time for substantial moisture return or does it
get shunted eastward? What will be the initial Ptype and/or how long
before transition to snow? Will western trough and surface
reflection evolutions/paths result in longer duration event? Taken
with a sizable grain of salt at this point in time, NBM 4.0 and NBM
4.1 do have non-zero 24 hr snow probs of 6" or greater snowfall at
Des Moines. Regardless of the snowfall potential, another takeaway
from the system next week will be another return/push of cold air
behind this mid-week system, though currently does not look to be as
bitter as the currently departing Arctic air.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...time for the GFS to play catch up??  Both the EPO/AO head negative during this period which is great for the cold to press.  The more we see separation of the lead wave up north, the better chance for a bigger or larger scale storm to develop. 

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What are you guys always saying? When your area Is the bullseye this early…….🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ LOL!!

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23 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

What are you guys always saying? When your area Is the bullseye this early…….🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ LOL!!

Not unless your tracking a potential GHD storm…I remember GHD-1 the Euro had that storm at Day 9-10.  It went back n forth but the idea of a major winter storm was obvious.  By Day 5, all the models were locked.  Let’s see where the models go with this one.  I could see this a more long duration with multiple waves based on just gut feeling.

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31 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

yep 18z way south.  It's so far out anything is on the table, but I don't have a real good feeling about it around my neck of the woods.  

Literally all we know is there will be a storm.  Track intensity etc won’t be determined for days.  But if models get consistent this far out lookout someone.  

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4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Euro looking good for Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska so far

Yeah, this will be a big run for the region.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The only negative with this run is the snow mostly piles up from long-duration light to moderate snow.  It looked like there may be a big finish, but the energy can't quite amp up so the cold-sector precip never gets very heavy.  This is day 6-8, though, so details are irrelevant.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, we got ourselves a potential large scale "share the wealth" if things line up....tonights 0z Euro took a step in that direction...what I'm seeing is the model showing increasing signs of a ridge connecting all the way up into the Arctic (-AO) and a -EPO at the time the trough enters the Rockies.  There have been several instances where troughs enter the SW and eventually get cut off but this run keeps the energy "flowing" into the TX Pan Handle region that is the classic "TX PanHandle Hook" scenario.

Notice the last 5 runs erase the PAC NW Trough (known Euro Bias +EPO)....the connection of the ridge off the west coast into the Arctic is going to be the key component as to how much the cold will press.

 

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The more I analyze the North American 500mb pattern leading up to this storm, it keeps bringing me back memories of tracking GHD-1.  The expansive HP connection across western NAMER as the storm develops in the southern Plains.

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I took a glance at the archives and it has an eerily similar pressure pattern...Here is a map from JAN 31st 2011...

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Compare that to tonight's 00z Euro HR 144 map...

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Now this is where it gets interesting...FEB 1st 2011...HP centered over Alberta and the "Banana HP" over the top...

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0z Euro HR 168...

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The end result off the model is a widespread winter storm....its pretty cool when you can look back at history and see if history can repeat itself.  Lot's of time to pin down the details but I'm intrigued by tonights run.

0z Euro...

 

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0z EPS MSLP animation...the biggest difference between the GEFS and EPS is the EPS organizes the secondary piece that digs deep into TX/Gulf states and then takes the NNE turn up the OHV/Apps.  Tons of GOM moisture available to tap.

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LOT's take...assessing notable colder trends over N IL and setting up quite the thermal boundary across the region...

Quote
As for the storm system for the middle of next week, its too early
for any specifics. But the trends from this distance are
concerning for both a swath of snow nearby and a narrower swath of
mixed precip/freezing rain nearby. A sharp cold frontal boundary
is likely going to be in the cwa by Wednesday morning, possibly
moving into northern IL Tuesday evening. With ample gulf moisture
lifting north, there could be several hours of moderate intensity
precipitation, possibly in two rounds from Wednesday into
Thursday. The large ridge of high pressure lingering along the
eastern U.S. combined with the next arctic high building south
into the northern Plains narrows the corridor considerably for
where this storm system is going to move. Clearly, shifts east or
west are possible, perhaps likely. And those shifts will have
large impacts on multiple forecast elements, most importantly snow
and ice accumulations. Made no changes to the blended guidance
this morning which includes high chance/likely pops for several
periods with a gradual change from rain/snow to snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Too early to include any freezing
rain/sleet mention, but these are certainly possible and will
likely need to be added with later forecasts. Temperatures have
trended colder for Tuesday night and Wednesday, particularly
across northern IL, based on the frontal location noted above. cms

 

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06Z GFS is a mauler for much of IA. Seems to continue a slight trend to the NW.  Kuchera ratios are anywhere from 13:14-1 in the beginning of the even to over 20:1 towards the end. In my thoughts one of these runs in the next two days is going to be quite accurate when it's all said and done only to have changes from Saturday until Monday and than a flip back to it's original ideas. Still snowing for many at HR 168---

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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