Tom Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 A complex winter storm appears to be showing signs of developing over the central/southern sub to open up the official last month of Met Winter. There are so many variables at play here that I'm sure we will see many volatile runs. One thing that is for certain, it'll likely bring a variety of precip types to our members. Lets discuss... 12z GFS... 12z Canadien... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, Tom said: A complex winter storm appears to be showing signs of developing over the central/southern sub to open up the official last month of Met Winter. There are so many variables at play here that I'm sure we will see many volatile runs. One thing that is for certain, it'll likely bring a variety of precip types to our members. Lets discuss... 12z GFS... 12z Canadien... The Canadian has a dream scenario for SMI. Two waves, all snow 24-36 hours of moderate to heavy snowfall. Will it happen, unlikely. Could something similar to this? yes. Something to track finally at least! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 17 minutes ago, tStacsh said: The Canadian has a dream scenario for SMI. Two waves, all snow 24-36 hours of moderate to heavy snowfall. Will it happen, unlikely. Could something similar to this? yes. Something to track finally at least! The Canadian would make my whole winter. All the disappointments would be forgotten! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 What are the chances we just get a more west/east based track versus the darn cutting?! Just one time please; that tends to share the wealth more and all year long cutter's haven't been good for me. Teleconnections are all right around neutral you would think that would help. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z GEFS says long ways to go 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Kiss of death the CPC. 4 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, gabel23 said: Kiss of death the CPC. Did they usually do that this far out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, james1976 said: Did they usually do that this far out? I think they go directly off of what the ensembles are showing. Typically if there is good consensus they will do this; I have also seen it shift around a lot! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Oops, didn't see this thread. Anyway, lock in 12Z GFS. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ugh, the 12z Euro is stronger with the northern stream and very progressive with the front. Iowa is almost completely bypassed by any precip. It's very similar to what the Canadian is showing... quite good for areas east of Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table. 5 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z Euro has the KC to Chicago track. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Kuchera ratios 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z Euro...time for the GFS to play catch up?? Both the EPO/AO head negative during this period which is great for the cold to press. The more we see separation of the lead wave up north, the better chance for a bigger or larger scale storm to develop. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 While I want a big storm up this way, atleast this should get rid of the potential mid 30's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Long way to go! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 @ClintonThis storm wants to visit ur backyard bud! Rooting for ya! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 Euro Control has storm in several pieces but quite the snow producer. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Niko said: @ClintonThis storm wants to visit ur backyard bud! Rooting for ya! Thanks, hope the Euro is on the right track. The GFS is a icy mess for mby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Lots of time for swings glad I’m not in the Sweet spot right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Initial thoughts from GRR: - POSSIBLE IMPACTFUL PATTERN FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IT HAS BEEN SOME TIME SINCE WE HAVE SEEN A STRONGER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA...BUT THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER QPF IS SHOWN TO EXIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING HERE IN THE CWA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL AS ONE OR MORE WAVES LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TUESDAY COULD FEATURE RAIN GIVEN GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...BUT AS THE ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD END UP HEAVY SO CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED. IF WE END UP WITH MOSTLY RAIN...WE WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER THE IMPACTS TO THE RIVERS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ICE IN PLACE. IF IT ENDS UP AS MOSTLY SNOW...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. ALSO A ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SO THOSE IMPACTS ARE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Ugh, the 12z Euro is stronger with the northern stream and very progressive with the front. Iowa is almost completely bypassed by any precip. It's very similar to what the Canadian is showing... quite good for areas east of Iowa. If the Euro and GFS meet in the middle we'll likely be in or near the bullseye, so let's hope that's the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro Control, a bit further north than the Op model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 For this far out for the mean to look like this, I think is a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 DMX's thoughts -- Said weather maker continues to be pretty well depicted within deterministic guidance and to varying degrees within ensemble guidance. What is certain is that the large scale pattern will change by the end of the weekend as the pattern flattens and eventually turns SW ahead of a western trough kicking out early-mid next week. There is also growing certainty in a precipitation event around Tuesday PM into Wednesday or longer. What is less certain are the details of timing/duration/QPF/Ptype, such as does the Gulf of Mexico open up in time for substantial moisture return or does it get shunted eastward? What will be the initial Ptype and/or how long before transition to snow? Will western trough and surface reflection evolutions/paths result in longer duration event? Taken with a sizable grain of salt at this point in time, NBM 4.0 and NBM 4.1 do have non-zero 24 hr snow probs of 6" or greater snowfall at Des Moines. Regardless of the snowfall potential, another takeaway from the system next week will be another return/push of cold air behind this mid-week system, though currently does not look to be as bitter as the currently departing Arctic air. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...time for the GFS to play catch up?? Both the EPO/AO head negative during this period which is great for the cold to press. The more we see separation of the lead wave up north, the better chance for a bigger or larger scale storm to develop. What are you guys always saying? When your area Is the bullseye this early……. LOL!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, indianajohn said: What are you guys always saying? When your area Is the bullseye this early……. LOL!! Not unless your tracking a potential GHD storm…I remember GHD-1 the Euro had that storm at Day 9-10. It went back n forth but the idea of a major winter storm was obvious. By Day 5, all the models were locked. Let’s see where the models go with this one. I could see this a more long duration with multiple waves based on just gut feeling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm gonna start off being "cautiously optimistic" about how this all shakes out. Then again... 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 18Z GFS already south more aligned with Euro and Canandian. WAY south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 yep 18z way south. It's so far out anything is on the table, but I don't have a real good feeling about it around my neck of the woods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS has been doing this for the last two winters or so, it shows rain way up north far out and eventually works its way back south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 26, 2022 Report Share Posted January 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, bud2380 said: yep 18z way south. It's so far out anything is on the table, but I don't have a real good feeling about it around my neck of the woods. Literally all we know is there will be a storm. Track intensity etc won’t be determined for days. But if models get consistent this far out lookout someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 00z GFS is back further north and west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z GFS strong with sleet and heavy snow for mby. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 75 miles Northwest please lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Euro looking good for Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Euro looking good for Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska so far Yeah, this will be a big run for the region. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.