Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The only negative with this run is the snow mostly piles up from long-duration light to moderate snow. It looked like there may be a big finish, but the energy can't quite amp up so the cold-sector precip never gets very heavy. This is day 6-8, though, so details are irrelevant. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Boy, we got ourselves a potential large scale "share the wealth" if things line up....tonights 0z Euro took a step in that direction...what I'm seeing is the model showing increasing signs of a ridge connecting all the way up into the Arctic (-AO) and a -EPO at the time the trough enters the Rockies. There have been several instances where troughs enter the SW and eventually get cut off but this run keeps the energy "flowing" into the TX Pan Handle region that is the classic "TX PanHandle Hook" scenario. Notice the last 5 runs erase the PAC NW Trough (known Euro Bias +EPO)....the connection of the ridge off the west coast into the Arctic is going to be the key component as to how much the cold will press. The more I analyze the North American 500mb pattern leading up to this storm, it keeps bringing me back memories of tracking GHD-1. The expansive HP connection across western NAMER as the storm develops in the southern Plains. I took a glance at the archives and it has an eerily similar pressure pattern...Here is a map from JAN 31st 2011... Compare that to tonight's 00z Euro HR 144 map... Now this is where it gets interesting...FEB 1st 2011...HP centered over Alberta and the "Banana HP" over the top... 0z Euro HR 168... The end result off the model is a widespread winter storm....its pretty cool when you can look back at history and see if history can repeat itself. Lot's of time to pin down the details but I'm intrigued by tonights run. 0z Euro... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z GEFS... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 EPS is way south. St. Louis to Chicago special 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z EPS...mirroring the GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z EPS MSLP animation...the biggest difference between the GEFS and EPS is the EPS organizes the secondary piece that digs deep into TX/Gulf states and then takes the NNE turn up the OHV/Apps. Tons of GOM moisture available to tap. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 LOT's take...assessing notable colder trends over N IL and setting up quite the thermal boundary across the region... Quote As for the storm system for the middle of next week, its too early for any specifics. But the trends from this distance are concerning for both a swath of snow nearby and a narrower swath of mixed precip/freezing rain nearby. A sharp cold frontal boundary is likely going to be in the cwa by Wednesday morning, possibly moving into northern IL Tuesday evening. With ample gulf moisture lifting north, there could be several hours of moderate intensity precipitation, possibly in two rounds from Wednesday into Thursday. The large ridge of high pressure lingering along the eastern U.S. combined with the next arctic high building south into the northern Plains narrows the corridor considerably for where this storm system is going to move. Clearly, shifts east or west are possible, perhaps likely. And those shifts will have large impacts on multiple forecast elements, most importantly snow and ice accumulations. Made no changes to the blended guidance this morning which includes high chance/likely pops for several periods with a gradual change from rain/snow to snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Too early to include any freezing rain/sleet mention, but these are certainly possible and will likely need to be added with later forecasts. Temperatures have trended colder for Tuesday night and Wednesday, particularly across northern IL, based on the frontal location noted above. cms 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z EPS members... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 06Z GFS is a mauler for much of IA. Seems to continue a slight trend to the NW. Kuchera ratios are anywhere from 13:14-1 in the beginning of the even to over 20:1 towards the end. In my thoughts one of these runs in the next two days is going to be quite accurate when it's all said and done only to have changes from Saturday until Monday and than a flip back to it's original ideas. Still snowing for many at HR 168--- 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Precip type is still a concern for my area but significant amounts of ice and snow are looking posable. The NBM is impressive for being this far out. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 EAX this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 hours ago, jcwxguy said: Much better for Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Precip type is still a concern for my area but significant amounts of ice and snow are looking posable. The NBM is impressive for being this far out. GHD-1 repeat? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z GFS through 180 hours. Much better for this area. Still a lot of time for changes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: GHD-1 repeat? Yes please! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I don't like how far south the EPS is, but it's still very early. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 hours ago, Tom said: 0z GEFS... Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI. 26 minutes ago, Tom said: GHD-1 repeat? Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feddman Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Anyone know what this system did in the last LRC cycle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI. Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. Yeah, the models haven't even decided on how many waves, cold air intrusion etc. Lot's of bouncing to do. Multiple pieces of energy. Cold fronts. Long way to go before a clearer picture happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: LOT's take...assessing notable colder trends over N IL and setting up quite the thermal boundary across the region... Thought this was an interesting note from LOT The large ridge of high pressure lingering along the eastern U.S. combined with the next arctic high building south into the northern Plains narrows the corridor considerably for where this storm system is going to move. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 35 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Let's not over-sell this I agree it is best to hold off on the oversell. I still do not completely buy into this. It will change many times between now and Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI. Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. I’m not saying we will see a large scale blizzard but more so a widespread snow shield. There will be the very cold temps and winds at play which will most likely aid in snow production and blowing snow. I wouldn’t discount the models intensifying the second piece along the frontal boundary. The flow aloft seems to be favorable for this to happen. We don’t have a massive spike in the AO or NAO or even a big dip in the EPO that could wreck the whole set up. I feel pretty good at this range for our region. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, westMJim said: I agree it is best to hold off on the oversell. I still do not completely buy into this. It will change many times between now and Monday. I should have been more clear in my comment when referring to GHD-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I just want enough snow to ride my snowmobile. I had to fix the oil tank this year, remove steering column, it took all day because my Polaris XC SP 600 oil tank design is garbage. I put in all that work, I just want to ride it and see this hit SE Wisconsin hard. I don't care if it's powder or wet and heavy, powder is great for snowboarding and wet and heavy is great for snowmobiling. It has just been horrible dealing with this cold and not having much snow, it's like this could be an amazing Winter if it snowed early and we had a huge base, then all this cold to keep it around, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The thing that I like about this storm is that it will be dealing w/ a lot of cold air coming in to it, and especially, after the storm. It gets brutal. But, for now, I can see this as an all out snowstorm for many, w/ very limited mixing. We shall see, but that is my intake on this situation this far out. Happy tracking folks! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12Z GFS another mauler for much of IA 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yeah I really wish this wasn't 6 days out yet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Of course many more changes to come but I really like that the upper air soundings injested into the 12Z run pretty much same as 06Z (no upper air) a good sign that rarely happens this far out. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Loving the look of the 12Z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Of course many more changes to come but I really like that the upper air soundings injested into the 12Z run pretty much same as 06Z (no upper air) a good sign that rarely happens this far out. 20 miles separates me from 12 inches of snow. This is going to be one I'm not going to follow every run. I'll check again this weekend and see how it's going...(sarcasm) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I would love to have the initial overrunning shown by the Euro/GFS, but then get the final piece of energy to tilt a bit negative and amp up, rather than lazily pull east like it's doing now. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The GFS would be the strongest storm we've seen in several years here in eastern Iowa. 24+ hours of snow is not something we get very often. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's too bad this thing is still so far away. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, East Dubzz said: It's too bad this thing is still so far away. Yeah, I'm not getting too excited yet. GFS shows this moving in late Tuesday night, so we've got a ways to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, bud2380 said: Yeah, I'm not getting too excited yet. GFS shows this moving in late Tuesday night, so we've got a ways to go. And we've already seen how drastic things can change in just 24 hours this far out. One nice thing is the snow shield is pretty wide, so hopefully we get something in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The Canadian is still more suppressed than the GFS/Euro, but it's gradually shifting back nw. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The ensembles are still ugly. It's very possible Iowa gets nothing out of this even as the op runs look good. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The ensembles are still ugly. It's very possible Iowa gets nothing out of this even as the op runs look good. It could even happen over here as well if they keep pressing the frontal boundary farther south. I've seen similar trends int he GEFS from a system this year where the GFS op runs had a strong SLP but it ended up being a sheared out wave. That's what most of the GEFS members are showing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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