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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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The only negative with this run is the snow mostly piles up from long-duration light to moderate snow.  It looked like there may be a big finish, but the energy can't quite amp up so the cold-sector precip never gets very heavy.  This is day 6-8, though, so details are irrelevant.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, we got ourselves a potential large scale "share the wealth" if things line up....tonights 0z Euro took a step in that direction...what I'm seeing is the model showing increasing signs of a ridge connecting all the way up into the Arctic (-AO) and a -EPO at the time the trough enters the Rockies.  There have been several instances where troughs enter the SW and eventually get cut off but this run keeps the energy "flowing" into the TX Pan Handle region that is the classic "TX PanHandle Hook" scenario.

Notice the last 5 runs erase the PAC NW Trough (known Euro Bias +EPO)....the connection of the ridge off the west coast into the Arctic is going to be the key component as to how much the cold will press.

 

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The more I analyze the North American 500mb pattern leading up to this storm, it keeps bringing me back memories of tracking GHD-1.  The expansive HP connection across western NAMER as the storm develops in the southern Plains.

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I took a glance at the archives and it has an eerily similar pressure pattern...Here is a map from JAN 31st 2011...

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Compare that to tonight's 00z Euro HR 144 map...

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Now this is where it gets interesting...FEB 1st 2011...HP centered over Alberta and the "Banana HP" over the top...

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0z Euro HR 168...

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The end result off the model is a widespread winter storm....its pretty cool when you can look back at history and see if history can repeat itself.  Lot's of time to pin down the details but I'm intrigued by tonights run.

0z Euro...

 

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0z EPS MSLP animation...the biggest difference between the GEFS and EPS is the EPS organizes the secondary piece that digs deep into TX/Gulf states and then takes the NNE turn up the OHV/Apps.  Tons of GOM moisture available to tap.

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LOT's take...assessing notable colder trends over N IL and setting up quite the thermal boundary across the region...

Quote
As for the storm system for the middle of next week, its too early
for any specifics. But the trends from this distance are
concerning for both a swath of snow nearby and a narrower swath of
mixed precip/freezing rain nearby. A sharp cold frontal boundary
is likely going to be in the cwa by Wednesday morning, possibly
moving into northern IL Tuesday evening. With ample gulf moisture
lifting north, there could be several hours of moderate intensity
precipitation, possibly in two rounds from Wednesday into
Thursday. The large ridge of high pressure lingering along the
eastern U.S. combined with the next arctic high building south
into the northern Plains narrows the corridor considerably for
where this storm system is going to move. Clearly, shifts east or
west are possible, perhaps likely. And those shifts will have
large impacts on multiple forecast elements, most importantly snow
and ice accumulations. Made no changes to the blended guidance
this morning which includes high chance/likely pops for several
periods with a gradual change from rain/snow to snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Too early to include any freezing
rain/sleet mention, but these are certainly possible and will
likely need to be added with later forecasts. Temperatures have
trended colder for Tuesday night and Wednesday, particularly
across northern IL, based on the frontal location noted above. cms

 

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06Z GFS is a mauler for much of IA. Seems to continue a slight trend to the NW.  Kuchera ratios are anywhere from 13:14-1 in the beginning of the even to over 20:1 towards the end. In my thoughts one of these runs in the next two days is going to be quite accurate when it's all said and done only to have changes from Saturday until Monday and than a flip back to it's original ideas. Still snowing for many at HR 168---

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

0z GEFS...

image.png

 

 

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Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI.

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

GHD-1 repeat?

Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI.

Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 

Yeah, the models haven't even decided on how many waves, cold air intrusion etc.  Lot's of bouncing to do.  Multiple pieces of energy.  Cold fronts.  Long way to go before a clearer picture happens.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

LOT's take...assessing notable colder trends over N IL and setting up quite the thermal boundary across the region...

 

Thought this was an interesting note from LOT

 

The large ridge of high pressure lingering along the
eastern U.S. combined with the next arctic high building south
into the northern Plains narrows the corridor considerably for
where this storm system is going to move.
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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI.

Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 

I’m not saying we will see a large scale blizzard but more so a widespread snow shield.  There will be the very cold temps and winds at play which will most likely aid in snow production and blowing snow.  I wouldn’t discount the models intensifying the second piece along the frontal boundary.  The flow aloft seems to be favorable for this to happen.  We don’t have a massive spike in the AO or NAO or even a big dip in the EPO that could wreck the whole set up.  I feel pretty good at this range for our region.

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27 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I agree it is best to hold off on the oversell. I still do not completely buy into this. It will change many times between now and Monday. 

I should have been more clear in my comment when referring to GHD-1

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I just want enough snow to ride my snowmobile. I had to fix the oil tank this year, remove steering column, it took all day because my Polaris XC SP 600 oil tank design is garbage. I put in all that work, I just want to ride it and see this hit SE Wisconsin hard. I don't care if it's powder or wet and heavy, powder is great for snowboarding and wet and heavy is great for snowmobiling. It has just been horrible dealing with this cold and not having much snow, it's like this could be an amazing Winter if it snowed early and we had a huge base, then all this cold to keep it around,

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The thing that I like about this storm is that it will be dealing w/ a lot of cold air coming in to it, and especially, after the storm. It gets brutal. But, for now, I can see this as an all out snowstorm for many, w/ very limited mixing. We shall see, but that is my intake on this situation this far out. Happy tracking folks!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Of course many more changes to come but I really like that the upper air soundings injested into the 12Z run pretty much same as 06Z (no upper air) a good sign that rarely happens this far out.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Of course many more changes to come but I really like that the upper air soundings injested into the 12Z run pretty much same as 06Z (no upper air) a good sign that rarely happens this far out.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

20 miles separates me from 12 inches of snow.  This is going to be one I'm not going to follow every run.  I'll check again this weekend and see how it's going...(sarcasm)

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I would love to have the initial overrunning shown by the Euro/GFS, but then get the final piece of energy to tilt a bit negative and amp up, rather than lazily pull east like it's doing now.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, bud2380 said:

Yeah, I'm not getting too excited yet.  GFS shows this moving in late Tuesday night, so we've got a ways to go.  

 

And we've already seen how drastic things can change in just 24 hours this far out. One nice thing is the snow shield is pretty wide, so hopefully we get something in the end. 

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The Canadian is still more suppressed than the GFS/Euro, but it's gradually shifting back nw.

image.thumb.png.7aff6c280497a9a7e31f9220ba0fa7da.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The ensembles are still ugly.  It's very possible Iowa gets nothing out of this even as the op runs look good.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The ensembles are still ugly.  It's very possible Iowa gets nothing out of this even as the op runs look good.

It could even happen over here as well if they keep pressing the frontal boundary farther south.  I've seen similar trends int he GEFS from a system this year where the GFS op runs had a strong SLP but it ended up being a sheared out wave.  That's what most of the GEFS members are showing.

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