bud2380 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 34 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS... Talk about lack of agreement. At this point, it's about a zero confidence forecast, LOL. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z Euro coming in colder and showing KC starting out as all snow into STL...lets see where this goes... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro coming in colder and showing KC starting out as all snow into STL...lets see where this goes... Yep, a stronger initial northern stream wave shoves the baroclinic zone farther south. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Major hit for KC...woah...will post full maps when they load... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z Euro....if this energy comes out all at once, this is your scenario...still snowing out east... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's going to be like this through the weekend. The northern stream will press a bit more or a bit less each run, and how far south it presses will have a big impact for our region. Iowa/Wisconsin may get clobbered, or it could be Missouri/Illinois. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Tom said: 12z Euro....if this energy comes out all at once, this is your scenario...still snowing out east... My area of South Central Nebraska also does well with this run. Whoa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Not as fun as the previous run, but I'd still take it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ooh, this run is showing what I posted about earlier. The final piece of energy goes neutral if not a bit negative, so it amps and wraps up much better. This would be ideal. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z Euro...we have seen the Euro tease us in the past this season and then turned out to be a sheared out wave...looks great but still need to keep your emotions in check. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nevermind, I thought that was the whole run. Lock it in! lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just saying, but that run is getting very close to GHD-1 storm track...closer up... 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll check back later...time to cook some food... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...we have seen the Euro tease us in the past this season and then turned out to be a sheared out wave...looks great but still need to keep your emotions in check. Wow that would be perfect. Lets just lock this in and be done with it lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...we have seen the Euro tease us in the past this season and then turned out to be a sheared out wave...looks great but still need to keep your emotions in check. #sharethewealth Wow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Come on EURO!! KC needs you 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 ewwww what a hole/dry slot dreaded mix over SMI. need that to be a little south. Used to that track here though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Zoomed in state maps for Euro Kuchera on Pivotal Weather 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Perhaps the thread title should include "overrunning" in addition to "cutter". Plenty of snow will fall well ahead of the cutter due to gulf moisture being thrown up and over the front. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 oops forgot a couple.... 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Perhaps the thread title should include "overrunning" in addition to "cutter". Plenty of snow will fall well ahead of the cutter due to gulf moisture being thrown up and over the front. Very good point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The Euro Control has done gone mad. This is a 10:! map 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z EPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 There is a very real danger the battle zone gets suppressed south and east of Iowa. We can't get too excited, yet. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: The danger for Iowa is certainly a more suppressed track. We can't get too excited, yet. Agree - i don't like the look of the ensembles, for any model at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think icing may be a serious risk from this. We've had several ice storms the last 5 years occur in February. Schools were shut down for a week in early February 2019. I remember vividly because we had our twin boys that week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Even with the inevitable shifts I think KC is looking good 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, gabel23 said: This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! The timing and battle between the arctic air and the warm surge will decide everything. Long ways to go to iron anything out yet. I will say, seeing air that cold behind this system gives a lot of people hope. Might end up bigger than we think. Of course might end up weaker and suppressed as well. Either way, this is fun. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I’m 80% confident this is a KC-DTW special. Iowa likely sees snow, but not a lot. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, gabel23 said: This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! Yeah I feel like this will definitely morph into a dusting here. I can't remember any time the ensembles were wrong and shifted towards the OP runs. I might start getting excited if GFS and Euro are still looking like this by Sunday or Monday. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, hlcater said: I’m 80% confident this is a KC-DTW special. Iowa likely sees snow, but not a lot. I bet Iowa doesn’t see more than 4 inches. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets Suppressed out of Iowa! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 GRR take so far. Heavy precip likely. Trends snow, but mixing certainly possible - Heavier precipitation possible for the middle of next week Gulf moisture with PWATS up over an inch lift up through the MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley on Wednesday. At the same time a strengthening frontal zone will be overhead here in MI with this moist airmass overrunning it leading to heavier precipitation. Trends support more in the way of snow at this time...but a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain is becoming more likely as the surface wave is shown to track through the CWA by multiple models. There is still a lot of uncertainty how this system will evolve but given the anomalous moisture lifting up out of the Gulf and the shown strength of the front along with one or more waves shown to track along the frontal zone...fairly high confidence in heavier QPF exists. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yikes, the ensembles are awful for Iowa. Not even close to the op's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, BMT said: Agree - i don't like the look of the ensembles, for any model at this point. Lots of duds in the ensembles for sure. Not even just placement, but quite a few with weak sauce 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nothing crazy but a decent write up by LOT Then the active stretch could kick off Tuesday and continue through at least Thursday. Could see some light rain ahead of and along cold front Tuesday with highs into the 40s for parts of area, followed by timing uncertainty for next surge of moisture. We`re continuing to advertise PoPs up into the likely range for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Confidence is higher than average confidence in precip occurrence (also noted sizable positive 5-day precip anomalies on the ECMWF and GFS ensembles) during multiple periods, though it`s possible that pattern evolution could slow wintry precip Tuesday night as shown on ECMWF and a good chunk of its ensembles. Conceptually, the pattern at the surface with strong Arctic high and cold air damming from north-northwest, and aloft with elevated warm front possibly lingering or moving back north into portions of the area sometime Wednesday into Thursday, introduces a distinct threat for a wintry mix zone and then snow north of this (which can be seen on NBM probability of precip types). Moisture availability makes the threat higher than average for potentially significant snow (sleet) and ice accumulations occurring within the CWA, amidst brisk northerly winds. We would caution not to get too invested in operational model run outputs given the multitude of plausible scenarios how this could play out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, james1976 said: Yikes, the ensembles are awful for Iowa. Not even close to the op's. Not gonna like the 18Z GFS. Further south. This thing is so far out. No chance any of these models will be correct right now. It's basically a big frontal boundary. Moist, but 2 waves. I don't like that look. Doesn't bode well for a strong storm. But plenty of precip could still fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 18Z gfs drops about 27" in Chicago...heck of a run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z GFS - expect more flip flopping 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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