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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro coming in colder and showing KC starting out as all snow into STL...lets see where this goes...

Yep, a stronger initial northern stream wave shoves the baroclinic zone farther south.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's going to be like this through the weekend.  The northern stream will press a bit more or a bit less each run, and how far south it presses will have a big impact for our region.  Iowa/Wisconsin may get clobbered, or it could be Missouri/Illinois.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ooh, this run is showing what I posted about earlier.  The final piece of energy goes neutral if not a bit negative, so it amps and wraps up much better.  This would be ideal.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...we have seen the Euro tease us in the past this season and then turned out to be a sheared out wave...looks great but still need to keep your emotions in check.

2.png

Wow that would be perfect.  Lets just lock this in and be done with it lol

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Perhaps the thread title should include "overrunning" in addition to "cutter".  Plenty of snow will fall well ahead of the cutter due to gulf moisture being thrown up and over the front.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a very real danger the battle zone gets suppressed south and east of Iowa.  We can't get too excited, yet.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! 

The timing and battle between the arctic air and the warm  surge will decide everything.  Long ways to go to iron anything out yet.  I will say, seeing air that cold behind this system gives a lot of people hope.  Might end up bigger than we think.  Of course might end up weaker and suppressed as well.  Either way, this is fun.  

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5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! 

Yeah I feel like this will definitely morph into a dusting here. I can't remember any time the ensembles were wrong and shifted towards the OP runs. I might start getting excited if GFS and Euro are still looking like this by Sunday or Monday. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GRR take so far.  Heavy precip likely.  Trends snow, but mixing certainly possible

 

- Heavier precipitation possible for the middle of next week Gulf moisture with PWATS up over an inch lift up through the MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley on Wednesday. At the same time a strengthening frontal zone will be overhead here in MI with this moist airmass overrunning it leading to heavier precipitation. Trends support more in the way of snow at this time...but a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain is becoming more likely as the surface wave is shown to track through the CWA by multiple models. There is still a lot of uncertainty how this system will evolve but given the anomalous moisture lifting up out of the Gulf and the shown strength of the front along with one or more waves shown to track along the frontal zone...fairly high confidence in heavier QPF exists.

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Nothing crazy but a decent write up by LOT

Then the active stretch could kick off Tuesday and
continue through at least Thursday. Could see some light rain
ahead of and along cold front Tuesday with highs into the 40s for
parts of area, followed by timing uncertainty for next surge of
moisture. We`re continuing to advertise PoPs up into the likely
range for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Confidence is
higher than average confidence in precip occurrence (also noted
sizable positive 5-day precip anomalies on the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles) during multiple periods, though it`s possible that
pattern evolution could slow wintry precip Tuesday night as shown
on ECMWF and a good chunk of its ensembles.

Conceptually, the pattern at the surface with strong Arctic high
and cold air damming from north-northwest, and aloft with
elevated warm front possibly lingering or moving back north into
portions of the area sometime Wednesday into Thursday, introduces
a distinct threat for a wintry mix zone and then snow north of
this (which can be seen on NBM probability of precip types).
Moisture availability makes the threat higher than average for
potentially significant snow (sleet) and ice accumulations
occurring within the CWA, amidst brisk northerly winds. We would
caution not to get too invested in operational model run outputs
given the multitude of plausible scenarios how this could play
out.

 

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Yikes, the ensembles are awful for Iowa. Not even close to the op's. 

Not gonna like the 18Z GFS.  Further south.    This thing is so far out.  No chance any of these models will be correct right now.  It's basically a big frontal boundary.  Moist, but 2 waves.  I don't like that look.  Doesn't bode well for a strong storm.  But plenty of precip could still fall.  

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