East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Still a nice looking storm there. Obviously a lot is going to change, so just have to hope there are models that stay further north too and it doesn't just completely go south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 That’s a big shift in iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I totally expect to see some suppressed runs over the next couple days at least. Hopefully, for us Iowans, it won't end up suppressed. If it does, it does. Then, folks to the south and east will cash in. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Can't share graphics but a look at the 12z ECMWF ENS clusters shows: 50% of members with a low in western TN/KY at Hour 168 37% of members with absolutely no storm and an incredibly suffocating Canadian high pressure 11% of members with a low on the IA/MO/IL border nexus at Hour 168 I share concerns about the Arctic high ending up being too strong; it's happened at least once this winter where a Canadian HP's influence was underestimated by models and only became apparent as the event was happening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, Niko said: Only in our dreams would this verify. After the year we have had I can only imagine we will be disappointed come this weekend when models show what will actually verify 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, bud2380 said: 18z GFS - expect more flip flopping Jan 1967 copy storm. That was a moisture bomb! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 The GFS has made big jumps south today. The northern stream needs to ease up or Iowa will get shut out. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 No thanks GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z GFS further south with front puts down big snow for the KC. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Couple more runs and this will be south of KC wow!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 The gefs ensembles looks better in iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 The GDPS and UK have solid snow up to Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 killer dry air for here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z GEFS ensembles are coming around. KC, Chicago, and southern Michigan look good as of now. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 0z GEFS ensembles are coming around. KC, Chicago, and southern Michigan look good as of now. This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place. I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one. There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z Euro south and suppressed....back to a long duration sheared event.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Yikes even KC barely gets 6" on the Euro Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still lots of time to see what happens with the energy coming out of the SW and how it interacts with the baro zone. The 0z Euro run tonight is suspicious as to how far east it develops the storm. Bad run for those north of I-80. Next run could end up going back to a wound up storm. Let the model watching continue.... @jaster220 @Niko 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z EPS...not bad..in fact, its showing a wider snow shield but the obvious trend is favoring eastern parts of the Sub... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z GEPS...I like the trend....its trying to develop a formidable SLP riding up the OHV...waiting for precip maps to load... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z GEPS...pretty juiced...favoring eastern Sub... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 06Z GFS back N Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Big difference in Iowa from previous GFS run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still snowing heavily for eastern peeps 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 GEFS with a big shift north Chicago peeps look to be golden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 That's a huge shift for an ensemble basically 5 days out. Would feel better if it was a fresh upper air sounding run... 00/12Z. Time will tell if it's a farce or the 00z from last night was 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place. I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one. There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS.... We seem to be in a great spot, whether the models shift north or south we stay in warning level snow band. It's good to have a storm produce such a expansive snow shield. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 42 minutes ago, GDR said: Clifford the (potential) Big Dog! 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 NWS Hastings morning disco not exactly excited about a storm. I will say they have been wrong many times before over the years. We'll see what happens. "However, the EPS indicates that the deterministic/operational ECMWF may be overdoing snow chances/amounts. At this point, the NBM chance category pops seem reasonable and snowfall amounts if we do see snow will likely be light given its a quick moving open wave." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 EAX is gaining some confidence with this storm, but still cautious which is smart for KC. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 From GRR: Looks like a mainly snow event. Track and accumulations wayyyy to far out to determine. How strong with that Arctic High be? Seems like it's pretty strong. Euro almost misses CMI completely. This thing could end up south of Michigan. - Impactful Snow Possible Wed/Thur - Significant medium range guidance discrepancies are noted in terms of evolution of the system for midweek. However what seems more certain is that this system will have ample gulf moisture to work with and that a strong baroclinic zone will setup across the lower Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. In spite of significant medium range guidance differences confidence is fairly high in potential for significant snow as this system will have abundant moisture to work with. My gut feel is that the strong high pressure ridge building se from Canada will bring ample arctic air into our area such that p-type will likely end up being predominantly snow (we are favoring the colder medium range guidance solutions). It is also noted that the 00Z deterministic ECMWF has now trended significantly colder/further south with the Thursday system. The coldest airmass of the season will arrive by Friday as h8 temps plummet to around -20 to -22 C. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 MKE being cautious and acknowledging all possibilities! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Quote Attention then turns to a storm system that appears increasingly likely to affect portions of the Midwest sometime in the Tuesday night to Thursday night timeframe. Deterministic guidance has seemingly shifted south over the last 24-36 hours, but a close look at the respective ensemble members gives a clear picture of the significant uncertainty at this distance. Solutions include a swath of heavy snow north of the area, south of the area, across the area, or not at all! Bottom line, this is definitely a time period to keep an eye on, but given that we`re still the better part of 5-6 days out, it would be unwise to latch onto any particular details at this juncture. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Why do I have a feeling this will be south of my area now. After yesterday north? Detroit/Cleveland looking good atm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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