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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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I totally expect to see some suppressed runs over the next couple days at least.  Hopefully, for us Iowans, it won't end up suppressed.  If it does, it does.  Then, folks to the south and east will cash in.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Can't share graphics but a look at the 12z ECMWF ENS clusters shows:

  • 50% of members with a low in western TN/KY at Hour 168
  • 37% of members with absolutely no storm and an incredibly suffocating Canadian high pressure
  • 11% of members with a low on the IA/MO/IL border nexus at Hour 168

I share concerns about the Arctic high ending up being too strong; it's happened at least once this winter where a Canadian HP's influence was underestimated by models and only became apparent as the event was happening.

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

18z GFS - expect more flip flopping

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Jan 1967 copy storm. That was a moisture bomb!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS has made big jumps south today.  The northern stream needs to ease up or Iowa will get shut out.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS ensembles are coming around.  KC, Chicago, and southern Michigan look good as of now.

1643922000-TKcnJ6wA90E.png

1643932800-ue5ZC96t4e0.png

This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place.  I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one.  There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS....

image.png

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Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Still lots of time to see what happens with the energy coming out of the SW and how it interacts with the baro zone.  The 0z Euro run tonight is suspicious as to how far east it develops the storm.  Bad run for those north of I-80.  Next run could end up going back to a wound up storm.  Let the model watching continue....

@jaster220 @Niko

1.png

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  • Tom changed the title to 2/2 - 2/4 MW/GL's Winter Storm Potential

That's a huge shift for an ensemble basically 5 days out. Would feel better if it was a fresh upper air sounding run... 00/12Z. Time will tell if it's a farce or the 00z from last night was 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place.  I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one.  There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS....

image.png

We seem to be in a great spot, whether the models shift north or south we stay in warning level snow band.  It's good to have a storm produce such a expansive snow shield.

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NWS Hastings morning disco not exactly excited about a storm.  I will say they have been wrong many times before over the years.  We'll see what happens.

 

"However, the EPS indicates that the deterministic/operational ECMWF may be overdoing snow chances/amounts. At this point, the NBM chance category pops seem reasonable and snowfall amounts if we do see snow will likely be light given its a quick moving open wave."

 

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From GRR:   Looks like a mainly snow event.  Track and accumulations wayyyy to far out to determine.  How strong with that Arctic High be?   Seems like it's pretty strong.  Euro almost misses CMI completely.  This thing could end up south of Michigan.  

- Impactful Snow Possible Wed/Thur - Significant medium range guidance discrepancies are noted in terms of evolution of the system for midweek. However what seems more certain is that this system will have ample gulf moisture to work with and that a strong baroclinic zone will setup across the lower Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. In spite of significant medium range guidance differences confidence is fairly high in potential for significant snow as this system will have abundant moisture to work with. My gut feel is that the strong high pressure ridge building se from Canada will bring ample arctic air into our area such that p-type will likely end up being predominantly snow (we are favoring the colder medium range guidance solutions). It is also noted that the 00Z deterministic ECMWF has now trended significantly colder/further south with the Thursday system. The coldest airmass of the season will arrive by Friday as h8 temps plummet to around -20 to -22 C. 

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MKE being cautious and acknowledging all possibilities!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote
Attention then turns to a storm system that appears increasingly
likely to affect portions of the Midwest sometime in the Tuesday
night to Thursday night timeframe. Deterministic guidance has
seemingly shifted south over the last 24-36 hours, but a close
look at the respective ensemble members gives a clear picture of
the significant uncertainty at this distance. Solutions include a
swath of heavy snow north of the area, south of the area, across
the area, or not at all! Bottom line, this is definitely a time
period to keep an eye on, but given that we`re still the better
part of 5-6 days out, it would be unwise to latch onto any
particular details at this juncture.

 

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