East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nothing ground-breaking here, but a good discussion from the DVN: Quote Larger changes in the synoptic pattern will take place early next week as a shortwave digging into the Pacific northwest carves a deep trough across the western third of the US into the middle of next week. Models are in good agreement with a progressive trough as this time. However models do show the potential for a northern and southern branch to the jet stream further complicating the forecast. Models show a strong, coupled northern and southern jet streaks moving into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday which produces strong lee side cyclogenesis in the High Plains of West Texas. At the same time, a strong, progressive cold front will move across the area on Tuesday. This surface low shifts eastward with time with models disagreeing on the track. The Canadian has a farther northward track of the low into Missouri then Central Illinois while the GFS and ECWMF are farther to the south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The precipitation type with this storm system will be highly dependent on the track of the system and the amount and depth of cold air in place. Additionally, strong Canadian high pressure build into the Plains will produce a strong pressure gradient across the area with likely windy conditions. There remains a loft of uncertainty with this storm system as differences between models would impact the strength, amount of moisture, and cold air in place with this system. Changes to the forecast of this storm system will continue to occur over the coming days so stay tuned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Icon N from 00z 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Grizzcoat said: Icon N from 00z I noticed that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS really ramping things up in Nebraska on Tuesday evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, bud2380 said: GFS really ramping things up in Nebraska on Tuesday evening. This could be a bomb run for someone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z GFS north and stronger initially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12Z GFS looks north as it is loading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Iowa CRUSHER on GFS Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks like the lead northern energy on this run exits a little faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Holy moly. Don't get excited. Don't get excited. Don't get excited.... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks like ice could be a problem to the south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 The entire state of Nebraska with 6+" that run. Pretty much the same for Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, bud2380 said: The entire state of Nebraska with 6+" that run. Pretty much the same for Iowa. Much farther north than the 0z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Further west and south view 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well, it looks like this will be the run that sets me up for disappointment when the inevitable shift south (or even continued hatred of snow from the Euro) comes back 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Never good to be in the bullseye this far out in Fremont 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z GFS through 150 hours 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Meanwhile, the 12z GFS is also coming in much colder for the evening of February 3rd in the wake of this system compared to the 06z; by 9pm, temps are at -23 in Omaha (-13 in the 06z run, and we ended up bottoming out at -32 degrees that evening) 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 According to the 12z GFS, snow would begin here around daybreak on Wednesday and not end until until early Thursday morning! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Why does this have to be 5 days out yet? 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 LOL...12z GFS sets up the standard I-70 screw job! I'll see where things stand Tuesday. I've seen this show too many times already. 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z GFS through 150 hours This is quite the flip from the runs earlier that had this over ks and Mo. let the model battles begin! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Still not sold. Seems like north trend could be an outlier. Underplaying the influence the HP will have and get strung out and weaker as it moves east. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, mlgamer said: LOL...12z GFS sets up the standard I-70 screw job! I'll see where things stand Tuesday. I've seen this show too many times already. It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol 12z GFS is a destructive storm here, lots of ice and 3 or 4 inches of wet snow on top. Lets hope for a colder solution next time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 GEFS pretty much carbon copy of 06Z, a little W in IA. Good sign for C.IA. Actually I go the other way with strength of H. The WAA on Monday will dictate more than most think. I understand cold air wins the battle eventually, but the WAA can slow it. Being on the North end of these systems is not bad as it's a good snow event or nothing. Not like the ice potential down South. That stuff blows. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 GDPS is south and narrow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Hawkeye said: GDPS is south and narrow. Basically misses most of Nebraska and Iowa. The fun of having models disagreeing with each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 GEFS precip shield actually looking somewhat south for Nebraska compared to 06z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z UK is stronger with the lead northern wave, so the snow is pushed well south of the 00z. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Chicago is the place to be 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wouldn’t be surprised if the euro Came in south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12Z GEFS 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Lock the GFS in, ignore everything else. This is the way. 2 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12Z GEFS While the Op GFS was a bit N for mby, I like the look of the GEFS yet again for SEMI. Seems like suddenly, this is more of a W to E mover, and not such a "cutter" 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 hours ago, Tom said: 0z EPS...not bad..in fact, its showing a wider snow shield but the obvious trend is favoring eastern parts of the Sub... I think this system legit likes S/SEMI. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z Euro will be coming back N this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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