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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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Nothing ground-breaking here, but a good discussion from the DVN:

 

Quote
Larger changes in the synoptic pattern will take place early next
week as a shortwave digging into the Pacific northwest carves a deep
trough across the western third of the US into the middle of next
week. Models are in good agreement with a progressive trough as this
time. However models do show the potential for a northern and
southern branch to the jet stream further complicating the forecast.

Models show a strong, coupled northern and southern  jet streaks
moving into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday which produces strong
lee side cyclogenesis in the High Plains of West Texas. At the same
time, a strong, progressive cold front will move across the area on
Tuesday.

This surface low shifts eastward with time with models disagreeing
on the track. The Canadian has a farther northward track of the low
into Missouri then Central Illinois while the GFS and ECWMF are
farther to the south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
precipitation type with this storm system will be highly dependent
on the track of the system and the amount and depth of cold air in
place. Additionally, strong Canadian high pressure build into the
Plains will produce a strong pressure gradient across the area with
likely windy conditions.

There remains a loft of uncertainty with this storm system as
differences between models would impact the strength, amount of
moisture, and cold air in place with this system. Changes to the
forecast of this storm system will continue to occur over the coming
days so stay tuned.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol

12z GFS is a destructive storm here, lots of ice and 3 or 4 inches of wet snow on top.  Lets hope for a colder solution next time.

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GEFS pretty much carbon copy of 06Z, a little W in IA. Good sign for C.IA.

Actually I go the other way with strength of H. The WAA on Monday will dictate more than most think. I understand cold air wins the battle eventually, but the WAA can slow it.

Being on the North end of these systems is not bad as it's a good snow event or nothing. Not like the ice potential down South. That stuff blows. 🤮

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12z UK is stronger with the lead northern wave, so the snow is pushed well south of the 00z.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12Z GEFS

1643965200-RVIlVgHEFEE.png

1643943600-Po4L9eCmEus.png

While the Op GFS was a bit N for mby, I like the look of the GEFS yet again for SEMI. Seems like suddenly, this is more of a W to E mover, and not such a "cutter"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...not bad..in fact, its showing a wider snow shield but the obvious trend is favoring eastern parts of the Sub...

2.png

 

1.png

I think this system legit likes S/SEMI.

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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