2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Bellona]

I have about 3% hope left that this gets anywhere close to me. I think it's a lost cause. That said, the last few years, February and into March has been the biggest score up here. I'm sure there will be several more to watch before I flip into severe weather mode. Wherever this goes, I hope you all get dumped on. If it can't be me maybe it can be KC. They seem to get screwed a lot!

[Clinton]

18z GEFS 

 

[tbone8]

!

[Stacsh]

Not one mention of a storm from local weather here.  Just meh rain to snow a couple inches.  Maybe more as you go south.  No one is buying this storm.  I guess south of here they are intrigued.  But status quo here.   Bigger story is it might hit upper 30’s Tuesday.   Go figure.  

[Stacsh]

36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GEFS 

 

It’s safe to say no one at this time is taking this model seriously and to throw it out.  According to weather forecasters.  

[hlcater]

Just gonna throw a reminder in here that it has been since April 1973 since it last snowed 12” in Cedar Rapids and while it may snow with this system, that is a statistic that should continue.

[indianajohn]

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

The one time I can remember a huge storm doing almost exactly what it had been predicted to do 4 days out was the GHD Blizzard in Chicago in 2011.  I was living there at the time.  Several days out, they were calling for how big it would be in Chicago, and it was.  Hopefully this one does the same thing.  

Yea it’s as epic storm but if I remembered correctly we got dry slotted and affected the overall totals.. can someone verify that..

[indianajohn]

40 minutes ago, tbone8 said:

!

Time to fire up the neighborhood

[indianajohn]

5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

You might have over in NW Indiana.  I know the dry slot came right up to the southern edge of the metro area.  But where I was never got dry slotted.  

 

Yep right around :21 seconds you see the dry shot… 

[Stacsh]

27 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Keep watching.  The main part of the storm comes later.  I think the dry slot you're talking about comes around 1:50.

I was gonna say here in GR I don’t remember the northern energy the day before.  

[bud2380]

18z Euro no significant change. 

[GDR]

21 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z Euro no significant change. 

You haven’t thrown in the towel yet? What about you Grizz?

[bud2380]

10 minutes ago, GDR said:

You haven’t thrown in the towel yet? What about you Grizz?

I’m not optimistic. But I haven’t given up all hope yet either. 

[Stacsh]

12 minutes ago, GDR said:

You haven’t thrown in the towel yet? What about you Grizz?

I have!

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Just gonna throw a reminder in here that it has been since April 1973 since it last snowed 12” in Cedar Rapids and while it may snow with this system, that is a statistic that should continue.

Thats incredible! Really? Almost 50 years!!!  Here in SE Ive I have witnessed  about 4 storms over 12 inches since 2008. Maybe 5.

[Grizzcoat]

I'll give it another 4-6 runs. Once within 72 hours it's difficult for guidance to be as far off as would be needed to give mby 4"+. 

[East Dubzz]

I’ve given up here but I’m interested to see how it plays out.

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Thats incredible! Really? Almost 50 years!!!  Here in SE Ive I have witnessed  about 4 storms over 12 inches since 2008. Maybe 5.

Yea I looked at the stats earlier. That’s what official obs say.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

It's nice to see it come back N on this run as well as amplifying the last wave that tracks up through S IL/S IN/OH...trends are our friends.  I would imagine the GEFS are a touch NW and juiced up this way.

If this does indeed develop a deeper more neg tilted SLP as shown by today's 12z run, I can't help but believe this is that Autumnal Equinox storm cycling back through. I remember some IN Peeps commenting how that would've been another Bliz of '78 had it been winter. Thoughts on this, and or LRC dates.

[jaster220]

Can't remember when so much guidance and/or published maps had Detroit kinda like ground zero. 

WPC for instance today:

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I was gonna say here in GR I don’t remember the northern energy the day before.  

I know it gave N IL and S WI a nice 3-5" appetizer. I think it was more like virga over in Marshall, lol because I don't remember moving any snow that day after work either. I was on a contract working in Kzoo/Portage and was given the option to not come in 2/1 due to the ominous and impending blizzard. A lot of my coworkers some that lived up towards GR were getting motel rooms up the road so they could be at the office. I had a different scenario at home, so I didn't want to be stuck away (my wife doesn't drive = no car) because TWC was showing 15-25" totals for our region the day before. The week or two prior featured a few LES events that had added up to a respectable and solid 7" base OTG when the bliz added it's dry-slot curtailed 10" total. Yeah, HALF of what I thought we were in for. 

[Clinton]

0z GFS drifts further south, perfect for mby

[mlgamer]

If the GFS trend continues, the storm will miss me to the south on the upcoming 12z run. This could already be true for the other models on the 00z runs when they come out. Hard to believe...well not really. 

[bud2380]

Just yesterday the GFS showed 6”+ for all of Nebraska and Iowa. Now both states get virtually nothing. The gfs with the nail in the coffin here. 

[Grizzcoat]

If the GFS verifies (OOZ)-- gotta hand it to the CMC as I believe it had the S. soulution even before the EURO.. Even the UK beat the Euro and maybe even the CMC. 

[Grizzcoat]

UK-- way S and way weak- a trend that seems to be continuing that the UK sniffed out days ago. 

[mlgamer]

Starting to look like next to nothing here. Even Patrick Mahomes couldn't pull this one out...

[Clinton]

GEFS dips further south but the ensembles indicate that the south shift may be about to stop.

[Clinton]

Just now, mlgamer said:

Starting to look like next to nothing here. Even Patrick Mahomes couldn't pull this one out...

Mahomes could do it lol.  GEFS isn't to bad for ya and I think the south shift is about done, maybe I should say I hope it's done lol.

[Jayhawker85]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GEFS dips further south but the ensembles indicate that the south shift may be about to stop.

I hope so as this is getting too close to become a dud for us what was once promising 12 hours ago 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I hope so as this is getting too close to become a dud for us what was once promising 12 hours ago 

We still have 3 days left, I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing.

[clintbeed1993]

Congrats to Clinton, but this winter is like a never ending nightmare. I live in St Joe and have been missed in just about every direction. At least Iowa got a nice snow at the beginning of the month.  This is a very nauseating season

[Tom]

Something to consider when looking into tonight's 0z GEFS is the grouping of ensemble members down over the OHV/S MW.  This may be a clue that the model may stop making big shifts in future runs.  Another notable trend is a longer duration system overall around here that keeps precip going into Friday (esp the backside LES potential).  This part will be an added bonus to those in NE IL/SE WI.  

 

 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

If this does indeed develop a deeper more neg tilted SLP as shown by today's 12z run, I can't help but believe this is that Autumnal Equinox storm cycling back through. I remember some IN Peeps commenting how that would've been another Bliz of '78 had it been winter. Thoughts on this, and or LRC dates.

TBH, I can't remember which storm that was and we wouldn't be able to use that system for this year's cycle as it occurred in Sept.  Your sitting in a good position as is @indianajohn @tbone8 @Niko

As for N IL peeps, there is still a lot of agreement among the GEFS members to see a significant storm esp the closer you are to the lake.  Someone mentioned on here before that this season we have seen jogs N more often than not.  This particular set up may not be helpful in that dept bc of the strong HP to the north.  I'd like to wait until this energy is near the PAC NW coast so that we have better data. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

This is becoming a rather little/nothing event for many on this site. EURO misses MDW and ORD nearly completely.  Other the SE.MI and points E

[Tom]

The big differences wrt to the 500mb vorticity between the GFS and Euro/Ukie are the slower ejection out of the SW.  The Euro especially wants to cut if off from phasing with the N stream.  The Ukie has been showing this quite often and I think the GFS's bias of a quicker ejection is the reason why we are seeing such hefty snowfall totals bc it is not slowing this ejection.  The other caveat is this 3rd wave that enters the N Rockies right on its heels that is effecting what happens to the SW energy.  You can see it clear as day in this run off the Euro.

 

 

 

The 0z GFS...

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

This is becoming a rather little/nothing event for many on this site. EURO misses MDW and ORD nearly completely. 

It's never fun when you see this happening inside 4-5 days....a lot will depend on how the models handle those pieces of energy I showed above.

[Grizzcoat]

Too many errors have to be modeled currently at this time for C.IA to see much of anything. Towel is thrown. CAA to strong to out due WAA-- at least here. Good Luck to those E and S. 

[Grizzcoat]

I consider DSM very lucky over the past few years and the recent 14.3" event (though eroded down to 5" of brown/dark stained crap  and even many open areas brown grass) its latitude 41 or so in the plains. Can't expect much this year. Events just are not that numerous and now a NW flow.... Oh well, it could be worse. See Sioux City,IA. 

[Tom]

INDY may be reeling this one in....nature trying to fill in the MW "Snow Hole"...