Jump to content

2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ATW said:

Hey Clinton. Do you buy the GFS? Trying to figure out why some of our surrounding NWS offices shifted everything south.

 

3 minutes ago, ATW said:

Thanks. This storm is driving me nuts because this could be our ONE chance to score a big snow this winter. 

Yes I do buy the GFS and the GEFS is juiced for both of us.

1644008400-wE9IgbOgCGQ.png

1644008400-Lam2hLDzwto.png

  • Like 3
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Jaycee
Jaycee

Here’s some pics from around 12:30pm today and it’s still snowing. Pretty awesome so far! 💖   IMG_1034.MOV    

gabel23
gabel23

Kiss of death the CPC. 

Clinton
Clinton

Winter wonderland outside this morning, the snow is ripping and so is the wind.  It's going to be a hard snow to get a good measurement on but went on a walk this morning and I easily have 4 inches on

Posted Images

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted
40 minutes ago, Tony said:

I have a gut feeling that we are not done yet with the evolution of this storm. Many places are going to be buried.

The razor sharp north extent of this system implies that any 5-10 mile shift N will make a forecaster go nuts.   Very difficult storm to handle over the coming days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted
23 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

18z GFS ENS absolutely shellacks the region, including a northward tick. Downtown Chicago sees almost 1.7" QPF (assuming ratios somewhere around 15:1 that would imply 25".

Love the fact your putting effort on Chitown.  I know your not in the game, but this shows me your enthusiasm of the weather is in the right place.  Thanks for the updates and keep ‘em coming!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Love the fact your putting effort on Chitown.  I know your not in the game, but this shows me your enthusiasm of the weather is in the right place.  Thanks for the updates and keep ‘em coming!

Well, technically not in the game... may or may not have booked a flight home for this thing... 😬

Cheers to heavy snows & northward shifts!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • lol 2
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted

According to model runs.  I could see anywhere from zero to 10”.  A shift north would increase those totals.  GRR is very confident southern Michigan will see at least 8+ inches over 36 hours.   I think Fort Wayne to Detroit is the place to be for this. I just don’t see any more north shift coming due to that intrusion and strength of the polar jet.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

I'm glad this system bolted well south early so I don't even have to worry about any model shifts.  I can just sit on the sideline and watch.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tom said:

18z Euro has the .50" qpf line now up through the city and is slowly inching its way North each run...it's still snowing at the end of this run...

1.png

Ugh literally 20-30 miles in the light green north of the good stuff   Sucks being here.  

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

This summarizes DTX's pm AFD. Confidence increased today..

Quote

That said, as it stands currently based on the trends seen yesterday and today in the
ensembles and deterministics, leaning towards the northerly track
solution where SE MI (particularly southern SE MI) sees a long
duration snowfall event from Wednesday morning into Thursday.

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ATW Enthusiast

ATW

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Maybe not as good in terms of the high amounts, but it still keeps us in the heavy stuff.  It didn't push south.  So I'll take it.

I just read a write up from a Met in another forum and if the GFS and Euro are correct with a stronger southern stream low then the 2nd system would have a better chance to come north. He said a lot more but he thinks there could still be a northern correction. 

 

Just now, Clinton said:

18z Euro Mean

1644084000-aHDuKiNwqsM.png

Well Clinton. It is looking pretty good as of now. Just don’t want to see any drastic shifts. So many things in play. A Met on another forum had a great write about this storm. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Pretty wild to be looking at Ensemble Mean maps with 18+ amounts! (18z GEFS)

  • Snow 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Clinton said:

It's different for me as well.  I haven't had maps like these since Feb of 2011.

GHD-1 was a bit before I got heavily into wx boards. If mby was ever in the thick of that one, I don't recall seeing anything about it. What I do remember is being somewhere public that was playing TWC and them showing 15-25" across all of SMI. Too bad they were so far off the mark. GR had like 17" and I think they were the Jackpot winner in SMI. Most of us came away with a disappointing 7-10 inches. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted
Just now, jaster220 said:

GHD-1 was a bit before I got heavily into wx boards. If mby was ever in the thick of that one, I don't recall seeing anything about it. What I do remember is being somewhere public that was playing TWC and them showing 15-25" across all of SMI. Too bad they were so far off the mark. GR had like 17" and I think they were the Jackpot winner in SMI. Most of us came away with a disappointing 7-10 inches. 

I scored 24 inches which is the largest 24 hr snowfall in history for MO.  I remember the wording from the National weather service "Historic and potentially life threating storm" it was the first blizzard I had ever experienced.

  • Like 3
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

Posted
Posted

00z NAM puts me at 11.8" and right down the middle of the track. But that was a pretty big shift. The way the models keep jumping around I wouldn't be surprised to be missed to the north or south or maybe actually get hit. Not sure really...lol

  • Like 3

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted
Just now, mlgamer said:

00z NAM puts me at 11.8" and right down the middle of the track. But that was a pretty big shift. The way the models keep jumping around I wouldn't be surprised to be missed to the north or south or maybe actually get hit. Not sure really...lol

Watching the news tonight none of the forecasters wanted to attempt to predict amounts.  I don't blame them!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...