bud2380 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 How dare you reel me back in models! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: No. Don’t fall for it. You’ll only be disappointed, again. Was thinking the same exact thing. Still would have a long ways to go to hit Lincoln and Omaha. If the models make a trend that far within the next day I wouldn’t know what to think 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: How dare you reel me back in models! I would think a couple inches would be the max Cedar Rapids could get out of this if it takes the northernmost-possible track. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: The models have covered a lot of ground the last few days. Your still in it! Just a few inches would nice with the snow drought. I’m not expecting the huge amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 25 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z NAM way north Will the GFS and Euro fold to NAM…we shall see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I would think a couple inches would be the max Cedar Rapids could get out of this if it takes the northernmost-possible track. I’m not getting my hopes up yet by any means. But I’m happy that there is at least a model run that trended back in our favor. When I was younger it would bother me to miss out on a storm, but those days are long gone. If we miss out then so be it. If we do get hit I’ll be thrilled though. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Two great football games today now for the show! Good luck to all 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z GFS should start running any moment now, place your bets... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I’m not getting my hopes up yet by any means. But I’m happy that there is at least a model run that trended back in our favor. When I was younger it would bother me to miss out on a storm, but those days are long gone. If we miss out then so be it. If we do get hit I’ll be thrilled though. Keep out chins up in eastern and southeast Iowa. I fully expected a jog back to north. Over the years ive seen many short term models hone in on the same area the long term models had days earlier. Also ive come to expect the models to frequently have a south bias to what the reality ends up being, particularly in winter across North America. Wont surprise me at all to see plowable good snows north of i80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 0z GFS should start running any moment now, place your bets... I think it holds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Interesting SREF's... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 I would rather it pull back way south than barely missed to the south. I would be cautious with the NAM it’s been amped and north a lot this season. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, someweatherdude said: So is this showing the second, more southern wave becoming stronger and moving more norward to KC? Or am I misinterpreting it? You are correct...it's advertising a stronger 2nd wave at the end of this period... Here is the NCEP WPC 72HR Snowfall... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z FV3 seems on the north camp...thru 6:00am Wednesday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: I would rather it pull back way south than barely missed to the south. I would be cautious with the NAM it’s been amped and north a lot this season. Truth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z RDPS... 0z RDPS... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: 10:1? The storm should be starting in about 48 hours. I’d be surprised if there are any significant jumps but… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: 10:1? It doesn't specify but I believe it is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z ICON 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 The north edge shrunk a little on the gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z GFS... 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tom said: 0z GFS... Wow 21 inches in mby! Here's some close ups 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Wide spread 25-30 inches happens a lot 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, GDR said: Wide spread 25-30 inches happens a lot Sure would be a storm for the ages...GFS has been high all winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: Wow 21 inches in mby! Here's some close ups Eerily similar to 2011. Would be a nice pick-me-up after that disaster of a game. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Eerily similar to 2011. Would be a nice pick-me-up after that disaster of a game. It does have that feel. The game was terrible I'm glad to have this storm as a distraction. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS at 10:1 is still a heck of a storm 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: GFS at 10:1 is still a heck of a storm 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: GFS at 10:1 is still a heck of a storm I-70 Mauler in Missouri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z GEFS 10:1 map 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z CMC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 49 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GEFS 10:1 map WOW, Really looks good for us all! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Well, if I'm up this late, might as well be up for the Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Well it has certainly nudged north a bit. Noon run gave us .01. Tonight’s midnight gives us .06 in Lincoln. Not holding my breath but might see some flakes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: Well it has certainly nudged north a bit. Noon run gave us .01. Tonight’s midnight gives us .06 in Lincoln. Not holding my breath but might see some flakes If we're gonna be on the edge, I hope it moves north enough for a few inches at least and not another dusting tease. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 31, 2022 Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: If we're gonna be on the edge, I hope it moves north enough for a few inches at least and not another dusting tease. That has certainly been the trend this year. Almost rather end up with nothing that the tease of another dusting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: It does have that feel. The game was terrible I'm glad to have this storm as a distraction. I've been saying that this system has GHD-1 vibes...while not an exact carbon copy, the amount of snow being spit out by the models is tremendous. Someone from MO/IL/N IN/S MI is going to get some historic snowfall out of this system. I haven't really checked into the winds but I'm sure it will look and feel like real Blitz conditions out in the open farmland with temps in the 10's and heavy snow falling sideways. So, decided to check what the 0z Euro was showing and it looks like the winds peak down near Champaign, IL thru N IN on Thu...boy, that NNE flow off of LM is eye candy for Lehs/LES potential. 0z Euro keeps baby stepping N for Chicago peeps... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 0z CMC This one is also inching North as is the UKIE...slowly coming around??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z EPS continues the slow bump N for N IL peeps....70"qpf now approaching ORD while the city is right on the 1.00" mark...things are looking brighter around these parts... Here's a view for the MW region.... Lower Lakes....I haven't seen ensembles maps like these for our region in many years...back in 2011 I wasn't on any forums and we didn't have the maps we do now. @indianajohn @tbone8 Where ya at?? Man, your area is looking impressive and into S/SE MI peeps. @Stacshbetter keep doing what he's doing... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2022 Many 0z GEFS members showing a developed second wave... 11" snow mean for ORD and 13" for the city of Chicago....18" near Warsaw, IN...just incredible watching these numbers creep higher as we get closer to the event. These numbers almost mirror what the models were showing for areas of the EC that were just walloped by the Nor'Easter. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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