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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

How dare you reel me back in models! 

I would think a couple inches would be the max Cedar Rapids could get out of this if it takes the northernmost-possible track.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I would think a couple inches would be the max Cedar Rapids could get out of this if it takes the northernmost-possible track.

I’m not getting my hopes up yet by any means. But I’m happy that there is at least a model run that trended back in our favor. When I was younger it would bother me to miss out on a storm, but those days are long gone. If we miss out then so be it. If we do get hit I’ll be thrilled though. 

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6 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I’m not getting my hopes up yet by any means. But I’m happy that there is at least a model run that trended back in our favor. When I was younger it would bother me to miss out on a storm, but those days are long gone. If we miss out then so be it. If we do get hit I’ll be thrilled though. 

Keep out chins up in eastern  and southeast  Iowa. I fully expected a jog back to north.  Over the years ive seen many short term models hone in on the same area the long term models had  days earlier. Also ive come to expect  the models to frequently   have a south bias to what the reality  ends up being, particularly  in winter across North America.  Wont surprise  me at all to see plowable good snows north of i80

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Just now, someweatherdude said:

So is this showing the second, more southern wave becoming stronger and moving more norward to KC?  Or am I misinterpreting it?

You are correct...it's advertising a stronger 2nd wave at the end of this period...

Here is the NCEP WPC 72HR Snowfall...

2.png

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS 10:1 map

1643976000-DftZbrG46s4.png

1643976000-csTfI8WTbHI.png

WOW, Really looks good for us all!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Well it has certainly nudged north a bit. Noon run gave us .01. Tonight’s midnight gives us .06 in Lincoln. Not holding my breath but might see some flakes 

If we're gonna be on the edge, I hope it moves north enough for a few inches at least and not another dusting tease. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

It does have that feel.  The game was terrible I'm glad to have this storm as a distraction.

I've been saying that this system has GHD-1 vibes...while not an exact carbon copy, the amount of snow being spit out by the models is tremendous.  Someone from MO/IL/N IN/S MI is going to get some historic snowfall out of this system.  I haven't really checked into the winds but I'm sure it will look and feel like real Blitz conditions out in the open farmland with temps in the 10's and heavy snow falling sideways.

1.gifSo, decided to check what the 0z Euro was showing and it looks like the winds peak down near Champaign, IL thru N IN on Thu...boy, that NNE flow off of LM is eye candy for Lehs/LES potential.

 

0z Euro keeps baby stepping N for Chicago peeps...

1.png

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0z EPS continues the slow bump N for N IL peeps....70"qpf now approaching ORD while the city is right on the 1.00" mark...things are looking brighter around these parts...

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Here's a view for the MW region....

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Lower Lakes....I haven't seen ensembles maps like these for our region in many years...back in 2011 I wasn't on any forums and we didn't have the maps we do now.  @indianajohn @tbone8 Where ya at??  Man, your area is looking impressive and into S/SE MI peeps.  @Stacshbetter keep doing what he's doing...

5.png

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Many 0z GEFS members showing a developed second wave...

image.png

11" snow mean for ORD and 13" for the city of Chicago....18" near Warsaw, IN...just incredible watching these numbers creep higher as we get closer to the event.  These numbers almost mirror what the models were showing for areas of the EC that were just walloped by the Nor'Easter.

image.png

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