2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Tom]

03z SREF's...

 

[jaster220]

31/0z EURO Zoomed has me around 27"!  Maybe it is Detroit's turn to have GHD-1 sized totals that Chicago and SWI got 11 years ago. 

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

31/0z EURO Zoomed has me around 27"!  Maybe it is Detroit's turn to have GHD-1 sized totals that Chicago and SWI got 11 years ago. 

 

I like where you sit right now Jaster...you guys may be onto something really special..."Lower Lakes Special" in the works...is this just what Mother Nature ordered for the rest of FEB???  What a way to open up the month, ay?

[jaster220]

From LOT's AFD

If you suffer with SAD (I do at times) this is no laughing matter. But it does look funny to see

Quote

(By the way, be sure to take a moment to ensure the sunshine this morning since it`ll be the last time we see any until Friday if not the weekend. We wish we were kidding.)

 

[Tom]

My goodness, ok NAM...are you saying something???  The model is seeing the trough come out into the Plains much better...to bad its the LR NAM but something to consider in today's runs...

 

 

06z NAM3km...

[Grizzcoat]

The 06Z Nam (now don't get crazy) has warning snow to the  SE POLK CTY, just SE of KDSM.  06 nam usually sucks at this range, but the point is most guidance (new) is seeing a N trend. Something I wrote off just a day or two ago- but if it happens- I have my merits on the "why" posted earlier for those with ears....

 

[Tom]

Winter Storm Watch’s are being issued all the way from KS into MI…

[jaster220]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

Winter Storm Watch’s are being issued all the way from KS into MI…

I always like when these words are included:

Quote

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions may impact the morning and evening commutes
  on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

[jaster220]

DTX (oops)

Quote

.DISCUSSION...

...Increasing potential for a long duration, impactful accumulating
snowfall mid week...

...A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect Wednesday morning through
early Thursday night for all locations except the Saginaw valley and
portions of the northern thumb..

 

[jaster220]

IWX with the goods! Much more ominous wording than SMI offices. Jelly!

Quote

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Initial snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts through Wednesday night with additional heavy snow accumulations possible Thursday. Widespread blowing and drifting snow Thursday with winds gusting to 30 mph.

This storm will bring potentially dangerous winter weather early Wednesday through Thursday. Unplowed roads are likely to become impassable over most areas. Plummeting wind chills accompanied by blowing and drifting snow could bring a potentially lethal travel situation if you become stuck in your vehicle Thursday through Thursday night. Plan now to make any needed travel changes to avoid travel during this time. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this developing major winter storm.

 

[tbone8]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS continues the slow bump N for N IL peeps....70"qpf now approaching ORD while the city is right on the 1.00" mark...things are looking brighter around these parts...

 

Here's a view for the MW region....

 

Lower Lakes....I haven't seen ensembles maps like these for our region in many years...back in 2011 I wasn't on any forums and we didn't have the maps we do now.  @indianajohn @tbone8 Where ya at??  Man, your area is looking impressive and into S/SE MI peeps.  @Stacshbetter keep doing what he's doing...

Am in LaPorte and starting to get concerned. Sure, it is fun to sit inside, watch the snow fall and post about it. The reality is this could shape up to be a deadly storm. I was around for the blizzard of 1978 where we got 3+ feet of snow. Our county road was drifted shut for over a week. Farmers had a really tough time especially with many animals perishing.

So, not to sound like an old man shaking his fist at the sky but this may become a serious deal. Below is an article from the interweb about that 78 blizzard. That pic looks exactly like our county road after it was first plowed. A road grader with a huge V blade slowly opened up our road by ramming the snow back and forth. A payloader later came through and widened the path.

https://www.wlky.com/article/belskis-blog-anniversary-date-of-louisvilles-only-blizzard/30664073

INDIANA
The entire state was under a Blizzard Warning for the only time in state history.
The snow lasted for 31 hours.
Up to 40 inches of snow fell in northern Indiana.
Winds gusted to 80 mph in northern Indiana.
I-65 had snow drifts of 20-25 feet.
National Guard tanks were called out to rescue people and help clear the roads.
Indianapolis had 16 inches of snow.
The phone company halted all phone calls except for emergency calls.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, tbone8 said:

Am in LaPorte and starting to get concerned. Sure, it is fun to sit inside, watch the snow fall and post about it. The reality is this could shape up to be a deadly storm. I was around for the blizzard of 1978 where we got 3+ feet of snow. Our county road was drifted shut for over a week. Farmers had a really tough time especially with many animals perishing.

So, not to sound like an old man shaking his fist at the sky but this may become a serious deal. Below is an article from the interweb about that 78 blizzard. That pic looks exactly like our county road after it was first plowed. A road grader with a huge V blade slowly opened up our road by ramming the snow back and forth. A payloader later came through and widened the path.

https://www.wlky.com/article/belskis-blog-anniversary-date-of-louisvilles-only-blizzard/30664073

INDIANA
The entire state was under a Blizzard Warning for the only time in state history.
The snow lasted for 31 hours.
Up to 40 inches of snow fell in northern Indiana.
Winds gusted to 80 mph in northern Indiana.
I-65 had snow drifts of 20-25 feet.
National Guard tanks were called out to rescue people and help clear the roads.
Indianapolis had 16 inches of snow.
The phone company halted all phone calls except for emergency calls.

Appreciate the insights, historical perspective, and photo/link. This won't be the beast of '78 that's the good news from a natural disaster standpoint. I'd liken this much more to the Jan '67 moisture bomb, only (unless things change ofc) displaced a bit SE so that NWIN is more in the crosshairs than City of Chicago proper. 

[jaster220]

You rarely see anything about how the bliz of '78 was in Chicago. I suppose that's because it was so much worse/historic in the harder hit areas. Nonetheless, apparently is was no slouch storm for Chi-town even tho fringed:

 

[jaster220]

DTX comes right outta the gate with hefty initial amounts.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
342 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-312130-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.220202T1200Z-220204T0400Z/
Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-
Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer,
Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian,
and Monroe
342 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...A long duration of light to moderate intensity snowfall
  expected between Wednesday morning and Thursday evening. Snow
  may become briefly heavy at times. Total snow accumulations of 8
  to 14 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute
  both on Wednesday and Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will increase in coverage Tuesday
  night and Wednesday morning. An area of snowfall will then
  persist Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds from the north on
  Thursday will also contribute to some blowing of snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[jaster220]

My grid:

 

[Clinton]

Winter Storm Watch issued.  Check out this map issued by EAX 9-17 inches for my area

[Clinton]

6z GFS continues the good vibes.

[Clinton]

6z GEFS not much change a little bump in amounts for the guys in eastern Kansas.  10:1 map

[Clinton]

Impressive amounts on the NDFD through hr73.  10:1 map

[Sciascia]

GFS has stopped the north baby stepping, which is slightly disappointing for someone in Boone County hoping to cash in on a double digit number. However, I am glad for those currently forecast for almost 2 feet.

[Andie]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

You rarely see anything about how the bliz of '78 was in Chicago. I suppose that's because it was so much worse/historic in the harder hit areas. Nonetheless, apparently is was no slouch storm for Chi-town even tho fringed:

 

I was in it.  The house was buried by snow drifts.  
I left for Texas and never looked back. .
Our winter weather this week will be 24 hrs of tricky driving vs a dump truck of snow in my driveway.  

[Clinton]

6z Euro

 

[KCSmokey]

@ClintonI'm pinching myself right now.  So many times...poof.  This may be it. So ready for some big snow.  Used to live in high-country Utah and Alaska.  I'm ready.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, KCSmokey said:

@ClintonI'm pinching myself right now.  So many times...poof.  This may be it. So ready for some big snow.  Used to live in high-country Utah and Alaska.  I'm ready.

Me too, we just need to hold on 36 more hrs!

[tStacsh]

Watch is one county south of me for 6+.  Nothing to the north expected.  Talk about just missing out on this storm lol.  I know it could change, but even the most north solutions are doubtful.  Would love to be in Detroit this week.  This will shut them down from Wed thru Friday.  

[Clinton]

6z Euro Mean a little juicier on the west side.  10:1 map

 

[GDR]

Nam following in line now

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro

 

I’m sooo happy that we and the kc peeps are finally getting a major storm that we can be fully excited about!!

 

im glad that my winter prediction in November came true for us to have a backloaded winter and she is showing up right on time!

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

They've been unwilling to move the northern side of the heaviest stuff north despite the NAM doing so. And the GFS doing so other than the latest 06z run.  Granted, the Euro seems a bit further south still.  Would like to see that northern edge of the dark orange move another 50 miles north.  

 

Being on the northern edge of the heavy snow band is a good place to be, seems like the models error south about 20 miles or so most of the time.

[Clinton]

12z NAM less juiced

[Jayhawker85]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z NAM less juiced

Gary is being SUPER conservative with snow totals. His forecast this morning is 2-3 inches but all the models are showing 10+ 

[Iowawx]

Unreal, of course, Cedar Rapids would never get a storm like this. Normally, we should be getting more snow than St Louis and Chicago. It seems that those two cites have really become the epicenter of snow recently. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary is being SUPER conservative with snow totals. His forecast this morning is 2-3 inches but all the models are showing 10+ 

I think he'll raise them soon, he's had a tough year.  This is his quote he seems worried the second wave will go south of the city.

I think that we will see at least 2 or 3 inches of snow, which is rarely ever a sure thing around Kansas City. And, the potential for a lot more is there

[mlgamer]

@Jayhawker85Gary did say "low end" for the 2-3 inches but he is being pretty conservative. Topeka NWS has 4-6" for the Topeka area which is pretty low end as well.

That said...there is plenty of time for things to go wrong and the 12z NAM being weaker could be a subtle red flag. Further north/south shifts could still happen.

I've been burned too many times to say this is a sure thing for MBY.

 

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Unreal, of course, Cedar Rapids would never get a storm like this.

Nope.  Our big storms are 4-8"... 10" maybe once or twice a decade.

[winterfreak]

Ugh. South trend this morning is not good.

[tStacsh]

8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Ugh. South trend this morning is not good.

There is nothing atmospherically there that will move this any more north.  In fact I suspect it may end up weaker and suppressed overall.  Those who get the snow will be happy though.  Long duration moderate snow can add up in these ratios.  

[indianajohn]

What a way to start off the week! Tracking a potential storm the doesn’t occur to often in these parts.. I’m really surprised the media isn’t really taking this as seriously as they should. The forecasted amounts shown are potentially dangerous especially if it’s 12/1 10/1 ratio.. Do I think models are a little overdone of course but there is a high possibility it plays out like they are suggesting and if we get anything near those amounts it’s shut down city for a few days with possible widespread outages if the snow is heavy enough.. we are 48 hours away and they are really downplaying how dangerous this could be.. just my thoughts.. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Nope.  Our big storms are 4-8"... 10" maybe once or twice a decade.

Yep. Same here. That's why you always have to remember climatology when you see models dumping 2 feet of snow for a storm system. There's a reason why double digit snowfalls only happen "x" amount of times per decade, even when the NAM or other models are showing huge amounts. Notice even Detroit forecasting 8-14" when the models have been showing 2 feet for several days.

[Tony]

RGEM did come north FWIW