2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Tony]

Even a slight jump north or south will make a huge difference on either side of the band. You can be a couple of inches to over 12" within like 20 miles or so

[GDR]

Gfs is pushing south again

[GDR]

Not a great run for chi town either

[winterfreak]

GFS south. Classic KC trends at the eleventh hour.

[mlgamer]

GFS has now had two consecutive south shifts (06z, 12z) in my area. One county north of me is out of the heavy snow.

[Clinton]

12Z GFS

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Amazing how much difference 50 miles can make.  

 

2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

GFS has now had two consecutive south shifts (06z, 12z) in my area. One county north of me is out of the heavy snow.

I don't like how close you guys are to the NW edge.  I would like the second wave to shift NW, it only hit the SE corner of the city

[bud2380]

Well any glimpses of hope were squashed this morning for those hoping for a north trend.  

[GDR]

[Tony]

Still have a few more runs to go so many changes can and will happen. What a roller coaster of a ride watching these model runs. 

[GDR]

Just now, bud2380 said:

Well any glimpses of hope were squashed this morning for those hoping for a north trend.  

Long gone and not much in the next 384 hrs

[GDR]

Des Moines only needs 200 more miles north! Ha ha

[Clinton]

12Z GEFS has about a 20 mile south shift.  10:1 map

[indianajohn]

Well I guess you can’t argue current trends being so close to event… this isn’t looking like a monster it was showing yesterday..

[winterfreak]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12Z GEFS has about a 20 mile south shift.  10:1 map

South trend continues. Not looking great north of you unfortunately. I think you’re good to go though.

[tStacsh]

GFS takes almost all of Michigan out of the second wave lol.  

[Clinton]

CMC weaker but further north than the GFS

[Jayhawker85]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12Z GEFS has about a 20 mile south shift.  10:1 map

I’m scared with these southern trends. Hopefully it’s just a glitch today and they will nudge back up north tomorrow. Crossing fingers and toes!

[GDR]

Just need this to weaken 

[GDR]

303 hrs for eastern Nebraska folks

[winterfreak]

I feel like precip maps are more useful than snowfall maps. Looks like the UKMET has bumped north the last couple of runs. It was an extreme southern outlier…so could just be correcting to line up with current guidance.

[Clinton]

12z CMC Mean, north about 40 miles from previous run.  10:1 map

[MIKEKC]

Can we just get a darn 5-8 inch snow in KC? Why does it have to be so hard to do?

 

I think this one will hit the city good. The south shift is there on some data but still delivers good snows to KC. 

About 36 hours to go...

[Tom]

12z Euro is north for the 1st wave up here...

[winterfreak]

EURO is more juiced. There’s still hope.

[Tom]

12z Euro...takes the second wave farther south...if this holds, I can live with this...the good thing for NE IL it is certainly pointing towards a Lehs/LES scenario.  It is advertising a lake plume right into Lake/Cook counties.  As always, these are fickle to forecast and won't be dialed down until about 12-24 hours before the event.

 

INDY in the crosshairs of a potential historic snowstorm...they have had it the worst this season...S MI peeps looking good also...as well as KC/MO...

[mlgamer]

12z Euro was slightly drier for me, but I do like the wetter trend pushing towards me from the south and east and pretty much on my doorstep.

[FV-Mike]

Gosh, just need about a 25-40 mile shift north to be in the good stuff. Very close

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

EURO is more juiced. There’s still hope.

Snowfall rates on the Euro are impressive, this is going to be fun.

[Tony]

6 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Gosh, just need about a 25-40 mile shift north to be in the good stuff. Very close

Gut feeling you start seeing minor shifts NW which really is all you need. Hope to see minor adjustments starting with the 18z runs. You still have time.

[Jaycee]

Finished wrapping up my move into the south burbs yesterday (Tinley Park). I still have a place in the city but love my new place down here. Only problem is neither the girl I’m living with nor I even have a shovel since we’re both from the city and we now have a massive driveway lol so we’re both a bit nervous!

[Tony]

EPS now looking better than the GEFS...back n forth with these 2 models.

[Clinton]

12Z EPS  10:1

[tStacsh]

And the stupid Euro jumps about 20 miles north here in Michigan putting me back in the "fringe" of accumulating (3-5") snow.   Stop sucking me back in!!!

[shakjen]

LOT just added us (lasalle county) to the winter storm watch which was kind of a surprise seeing the models have tended south today. We were on the north edge already. 

[bud2380]

I'm definitely envious of those tracking this one and in the path.  Models (outside of the GFS) really honed in on this one several days ago.  For awhile it looked really good for Iowa, but by Friday the Euro and everyone besides the GFS had this locked in pretty much where it is now.  Some minor changes from run to run, but the general idea of northern MO and central to northeast IL has held mostly true.  

[tbone8]

[winterfreak]

NAM really cutting back on the precip on the northern edge. Way to close for comfort.

[mlgamer]

This storm is a total nightmare. On the 18z NAM, I could easily get nothing or over a foot...

30 miles north of me: 0"

30 miles south of me: 17"

[winterfreak]

Brutal. Almost nothing MO river north.