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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

18z GFS - first wave looks like it’s a little further north but the 2nd wave gets suppressed to the south due to the high pressure 

0z models should have a good handle on that second wave.  You look good for a warning level snow imo.

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Afternoon AFD hits on what @mlgamerwas talking about with the tight gradient on the NW side.  KC peeps need a NW shift on the 0z models tonight to ease some anxiety.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
 

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 312149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CST MON JAN 31 2022

Key Message:

- Winter storm in the form of accumulating snowfall and impacts to
  travel becoming likely across portions of the area late Tuesday
  night into Thursday morning.

Upper ridge and good mixing has allowed for temperatures to soar
into the upper 50s to middle 60s across snow-free areas (40s in the
snow cover). With the continued moisture advection tonight, lows
will remain well-above normal in the middle 30s to middle 40s across
most areas.

A cold front will begin to move southward across the CWA
Tuesday morning, with a subsequent wind shift and CAA commencing.
Scattered showers will develop along/ahead of the front from Tuesday
morning into the afternoon, mainly across areas of east central
Kansas into central Missouri, keeping most of the KC Metro just
north of this zone of shower activity. Temperatures should remain
steady or slowly fall during the daylight hours.

Continued CAA will bring in colder air through the column, and
additional post-frontal precipitation will develop Tuesday
evening/night, continuing into Wednesday night. By this time, our
forecast area will have a vertical temperature profile supportive of
snow as the predominant type of precipitation. Cannot rule out a
very brief window of mixed precipitation on the onset across central
Missouri, but this is unlikely going to be the main story for this
system. Periods of snowfall are expected to continue across the
southeast 2/3rds of the CWA during the day Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Most accumulating snowfall is expected to end by Thursday
morning.

A couple important things to note with this system with respect to
snowfall: 1) the northern swath of snowfall will experience a sharp
gradient of amounts, potentially going from a trace of snow to
nearly six inches within a 50 mile line. 2) Any small change in the
track will have a profound affect for those near the anticipated
gradient (which is currently expected to reside between the
Interstate 70 and Highway 36 corridor). Confidence remains that the
highest snowfall totals are expected along and southeast of a line
from Kirksville to Kansas City, where 6" to 12" are possible. The
highest amounts are anticipated over central Missouri, where 10" to
15" of snow remains possible.
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Looks like Thursday North Texans will get to practice their sleet skills.  It will switch over to snow Thurs night/Fri.

28/17 Thursday /Mix Sleet-Snow 1-2' (just enough to create a disaster on the road with the newbies.

33/15 Friday /morning snow.

It's been a long time since folks have driven on this.  Does not bode well in my imagination.  🤨

Even the Central Hill Country could get into the action.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Finished wrapping up my move into the south burbs yesterday (Tinley Park). I still have a place in the city but love my new place down here. Only problem is neither the girl I’m living with nor I even have a shovel since we’re both from the city and we now have a massive driveway lol so we’re both a bit nervous!

Welcome!  I have worked in Tinley for years and just moved to Orland from the West Loop in November.  I went the entire month of December without getting a shovel.  Finally picked one up at the beginning of January haha

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3 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Finished wrapping up my move into the south burbs yesterday (Tinley Park). I still have a place in the city but love my new place down here. Only problem is neither the girl I’m living with nor I even have a shovel since we’re both from the city and we now have a massive driveway lol so we’re both a bit nervous!

Screw the shovel, get a blower...

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5 minutes ago, Tony said:

21z RAP is north but at this range who knows how accurate it may be but have to place our hopes on anything we can get.

At 51 hrs it shows my location having more snow than anyone in KS or MO, so no it is not accurate. 😉

(Actually, I've started looking at that and the HRRR as well)

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

NWS Topeka has issued an updated snow map which did increase snow totals along and north of I-70. Don't quite buy this yet, but we'll see...

Screenshot 2022-01-31 at 17-19-09 CR IDSS Builder v2 0 - Regional Baseline (Landscape) - DssPacket pdf.png

Those red uncertainty circles always tend to be around interstates or major cities 😆

  • lol 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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