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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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Earlier in the year, I think it was North Carolina, a bunch of folks got stranded on the interstate. Lots of finger pointing in that deal. My point is, is the potential severity of this storm being communicated to the public? I rarely watch the TV but turned on Skillings forecast last nite. He talked about the storm but no real emphasis on folks needing to stay home and off the roads. Is anyone seeing travel warnings, etc???

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

12z GFS...

image.png

 

Not as good as it could have been (for our area), congrats to Central IL, Indiana and Michigan peeps. If there is a next one then hopefully us a little farther north and west can cash in on a 12"+ storm.

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Just now, Tony said:

Not as good as it could have been (for our area), congrats to Central IL, Indiana and Michigan peeps. If there is a next one then hopefully us a little farther north and west can cash in on a 12"+ storm.

I agree, you can't win them all...let them enjoy GHD-3???  Certainly is looking like a bonafide winter storm for the S MW region.  I can't remember a year where C IL/IN got hit with a significant snowstorm.  I know back in DEC 2000 there were many storms that hit their area but not as big as this one.  Congrats to those down south.

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Interesting, the Canadian models have been working the opposite way the the GFS and NAM have.  Is it a flaw or are they on to something?

I always found that they are the best with NW Flow/Clipper systems but not really with southern stream storms.  I'd love to see the Euro stick with the north camp to buy into it.  I also want to see the Lehs/Lake Plume develop in today's 12z run.  I find it odd that LOT is suggesting the lake effect set up is not impressive even thought Delta T's will be more than suitable for LES. 

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Just now, Tom said:

I always found that they are the best with NW Flow/Clipper systems but not really with southern stream storms.  I'd love to see the Euro stick with the north camp to buy into it.  I also want to see the Lehs/Lake Plume develop in today's 12z run.  I find it odd that LOT is suggesting the lake effect set up is not impressive even thought Delta T's will be more than suitable for LES. 

Looks to be a long duration Lake Effect shown on most modeling

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1 minute ago, Tony said:

Looks to be a long duration Lake Effect shown on most modeling

Ya, based on the data coming in it appears that a solid 12-24 hours of both Lehs & LES combo...this could be the saving grace to see some appreciable snow near the lake for those north of the city.

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10 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

HRRR has been slowly tapping NW with the snow swath in recent runs. 12z had 0.9 inches at ORD at 4am Wednesday. The newest 17z has 3 inches at the same time.

15z RAP is even better and slowly inching northward also...

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Found this interesting from Garys blog.  Thundersnow is a possibility.

Something to watch for: There is a chance of a line of heavy snow to develop into what we call a convective band. Lightning and thunder are not out of the question. The models with the higher totals try to set up this band near KC around midnight. I will be looking for this possibility. If it does form, 3" would fall in a short period of time.

 
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Here we go:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1219 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

MIZ055-060>063-068>070-020915-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.220202T0900Z-220204T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.220202T0900Z-220203T1200Z/
Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-
Macomb-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer,
Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, and Warren
1219 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13
  inches or more.

* WHERE...Sanilac, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair,
  Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change over to snow
  during the early to mid morning hours on Wednesday, with snow
  then increasing in coverage. Prolonged snowfall will then
  persist through the remainder of the day, before tapering off
  throughout Thursday morning. Snowfall rates on the order of a
  half inch to three quarter of an inch are expected, with
  possible rates up to an inch per hour at times. Gusty winds from
  the north also may contribute to blowing snow and reductions to
  visibilities starting Wednesday afternoon. Significant impacts
  to travel are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Significant impacts to travel are likely. Wind chills to drop
into the single digits by Thursday morning and negative single
digits by Friday morning. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

Now, tbh, I have not seen this written in my forecast in a "Very" long time....

"Travel could be very difficult to impossible".

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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