Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, mlgamer said: The SREF plumes continue to rise for me. 15z had a mean of 12.37"! I don't know how much that's worth in the grand scheme of things, but there it is... 15z SREF really juiced up vs previous run. This is a good thing. possibly picking up on the convective band Gary mentioned. 10:1 map 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Steady rain here. Now we just wait for the change over. Although it’s still 42 here so may take a while to get golf enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: 15z RAP... 18z HRRR looks like a carbon copy to this map above 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Bipolar NAM through 30. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z NAM further north with the 2nd wave by 60 miles. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Clinton said: 18z NAM further north with the 2nd wave by 60 miles. By 0z hope it comes another 100 miles north 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Through 45. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: 12z Canadian continues to be aggressive for the city... wish that was right be perfect for up this way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 It has now started raining here with a temperature of 43. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Through 45. Bi-Polar indeed! Let's GO! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Per Accu-Weather: Rounds of snowfall will bury portions of the Midwest from late Tuesday into Friday. The heaviest snow is expected to accumulate from central Missouri to north-central Illinois, northern Indiana, southeastern Michigan, far northwestern Ohio and the far northern tier of the Northeast. Columbia, Missouri, and Peoria, Illinois, are likely to receive a foot of snow or more. Farther to the east, Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit; and Toledo, Ohio, could all receive a foot or more of snow. Across neighboring areas of Canada, metro areas like Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City are in line to pick up 12-18 inches (30-46 cm) of snow. According to AccuWeather forecasters, several cities will have a shot at breaking various citywide records. The last time a snowstorm unloaded upwards of a foot of snow in Detroit was back in 2015 when a storm from Feb. 1-2 dropped 16.7 inches of snow. That amount made it rank as the third heaviest snowstorm on record in Detroit. The top snowstorm still stands as the April 6, 1886, storm that unleashed 24.5 inches on the city. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 With the way the rain is setting up over the N side of town, I think the energy is further NW than predicted and models are seeing it. It’s also awesome how both the KC people and Chicagoans are both cheering for eachother I really hope this works out for all of us! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Jaycee said: With the way the rain is setting up over the N side of town, I think the energy is further NW than predicted and models are seeing it. It’s also awesome how both the KC people and Chicagoans are both cheering for eachother I really hope this works out for all of us! Both cities have had it rough this year we all need it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Niko said: Per Accu-Weather: Rounds of snowfall will bury portions of the Midwest from late Tuesday into Friday. The heaviest snow is expected to accumulate from central Missouri to north-central Illinois, northern Indiana, southeastern Michigan, far northwestern Ohio and the far northern tier of the Northeast. Columbia, Missouri, and Peoria, Illinois, are likely to receive a foot of snow or more. Farther to the east, Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit; and Toledo, Ohio, could all receive a foot or more of snow. Across neighboring areas of Canada, metro areas like Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City are in line to pick up 12-18 inches (30-46 cm) of snow. According to AccuWeather forecasters, several cities will have a shot at breaking various citywide records. The last time a snowstorm unloaded upwards of a foot of snow in Detroit was back in 2015 when a storm from Feb. 1-2 dropped 16.7 inches of snow. That amount made it rank as the third heaviest snowstorm on record in Detroit. The top snowstorm still stands as the April 6, 1886, storm that unleashed 24.5 inches on the city. What about Des Moines iowa or Omaha Nebraska? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z NAM This is a crazy divide in the area. Topeka may get 4 while 60 miles East kc gets a foot! Wow!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, mlgamer said: The SREF plumes continue to rise for me. 15z had a mean of 12.37"! I don't know how much that's worth in the grand scheme of things, but there it is... I hope your rates continue to increase as that will ensure i will get hit pretty hard as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Doesn’t matter much but the HRW was very far south yesterday (if I remember correctly?) and now it’s way further north and really hammers the city with LES. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Been raining for an hour. Temp had dropped from 42 t0 36. Winds switched to wnw. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 RAP keeps on inching north each run up here...this run is gonna be big for Chicago...through 6:00am tomorrow... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Latest kuchera gives Detroit 15" 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like Southern Michigan will need to score big on the front/first wave. Second wave might miss the area south. From GRR: Our wave on the trailing cold front seems now to mostly stay south of the area but this is also related to that coupled jet so hard to say really how far north that will get. So for now we will keep our headlines as is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 EAX having a hard time figuring out the 2nd wave. For the second round of precipitation, the main upper shortwave trough will begin to move across the middle of the country. At the surface, a strong high pressure area will be moving southward. There is very dry air associated with this high pressure area that will be advecting into the northern half to three quarters of the forecast area. This dry air may be too much to overcome for the lift associated with the wave and as a result, the northern extent of the snow area may be farther south. There remains considerable uncertainty though regarding this. Most 12Z guidance seemed to indicate more of a southward trend in this second precip area as the dry air looked to dominate over the forcing. But some of the latest 18Z guidance casts some doubts about that. The 18Z HRRR and the NAM 3km both bring snow back into the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening. That said, it still is more likely that the heavier snow with this second round will be across the southern fourth of the forecast area, mainly south of I-70. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Driving from LaSalle-Peru north on I-39 to Sycamore for a game. Rain stopped right at route 30. No sure how that matches up with radar and forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS not budging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Lawrence is reporting a mix already 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Latest snowfall map from EAX 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: Latest snowfall map from EAX They must be ALL IN on the high res models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Tom said: I agree, you can't win them all...let them enjoy GHD-3??? Certainly is looking like a bonafide winter storm for the S MW region. I can't remember a year where C IL/IN got hit with a significant snowstorm. I know back in DEC 2000 there were many storms that hit their area but not as big as this one. Congrats to those down south. Not exactly the same trajectory, but hit both IL and IN just 8 yrs ago 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, winterfreak said: They must be ALL IN on the high res models. Those with the NAM and Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Enjoy the white gold to all of you who cash in on this system… Feeling a little salty about missing yet another system to the south while we get ready to “enjoy” a shot of unwanted bitter cold Arctic air with little to no snowpack. Personally ready for the Winter of 2021-2022 to die a quick death. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 I echo the thoughts of James and Bryan above--- been a rough winter here for winter lovers- especially the snow. Enjoy the snow peeps to the S and E!!!! Sending a little DSM magic your way!!! FWIW- DSM is running about 2 degrees colder than progged and about 2 hours earlier so the CAA (at least here) is slightly ahead of schedule (NWS hourly forecast). 3 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Enjoy the white gold to all of you who cash in on this system… Feeling a little salty about missing yet another system to the south while we get ready to “enjoy” a shot of unwanted bitter cold Arctic air with little to no snowpack. Personally ready for the Winter of 2021-2022 to die a quick death. Exactly. This winter can move on to spring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Hi-res models not looking great right now. Very GFS-ish. Uh oh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 2, 2022 Report Share Posted February 2, 2022 I have a light sleet/snow mix now and 36.9F. So at least I saw some snow falling if nothing else...lol. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Report Share Posted February 2, 2022 EURO not as bullish anymore either. Less snow than the GFS… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 2, 2022 Report Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Hi-res models not looking great right now. Very GFS-ish. Uh oh. Weather models are serious master trolls. Nothing else comes close to them. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2022 Report Share Posted February 2, 2022 Radar looks beautiful and very explosive. Oh man, when all of this comes in as heavy snow...look-out!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2022 Report Share Posted February 2, 2022 EAX seems to be going with NDFD model the last few days as it resembles their snowfall maps the best. The NDFD has been very consistent with these totals and in the AFD this afternoon they mentioned ratios being 15:1 around the KC area. 0z NDFD 10:1 map Up close KC QPF amounts 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2022 Report Share Posted February 2, 2022 Check out the huge flake over S MI and also at Clinton's pl. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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