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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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30 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The SREF plumes continue to rise for me. 15z had a mean of 12.37"!

I don't know how much that's worth in the grand scheme of things, but there it is...

Screenshot 2022-02-01 at 13-36-02 NCEP SREF Plume Viewer.png

15z SREF really juiced up vs previous run.  This is a good thing.  possibly picking up on the convective band Gary mentioned.  10:1 map

1644040800-P96ArqZ2cd4.png

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Per Accu-Weather:

Rounds of snowfall will bury portions of the Midwest from late Tuesday into Friday. The heaviest snow is expected to accumulate from central Missouri to north-central Illinois, northern Indiana, southeastern Michigan, far northwestern Ohio and the far northern tier of the Northeast.

Columbia, Missouri, and Peoria, Illinois, are likely to receive a foot of snow or more. Farther to the east, Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit; and Toledo, Ohio, could all receive a foot or more of snow. Across neighboring areas of Canada, metro areas like Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City are in line to pick up 12-18 inches (30-46 cm) of snow. According to AccuWeather forecasters, several cities will have a shot at breaking various citywide records.

The last time a snowstorm unloaded upwards of a foot of snow in Detroit was back in 2015 when a storm from Feb. 1-2 dropped 16.7 inches of snow. That amount made it rank as the third heaviest snowstorm on record in Detroit. The top snowstorm still stands as the April 6, 1886, storm that unleashed 24.5 inches on the city.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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With the way the rain is setting up over the N side of town, I think the energy is further NW than predicted and models are seeing it. It’s also awesome how both the KC people and Chicagoans are both cheering for eachother 💖 I really hope this works out for all of us!

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1 minute ago, Jaycee said:

With the way the rain is setting up over the N side of town, I think the energy is further NW than predicted and models are seeing it. It’s also awesome how both the KC people and Chicagoans are both cheering for eachother 💖 I really hope this works out for all of us!

Both cities have had it rough this year we all need it. 

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5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Per Accu-Weather:

Rounds of snowfall will bury portions of the Midwest from late Tuesday into Friday. The heaviest snow is expected to accumulate from central Missouri to north-central Illinois, northern Indiana, southeastern Michigan, far northwestern Ohio and the far northern tier of the Northeast.

Columbia, Missouri, and Peoria, Illinois, are likely to receive a foot of snow or more. Farther to the east, Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit; and Toledo, Ohio, could all receive a foot or more of snow. Across neighboring areas of Canada, metro areas like Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City are in line to pick up 12-18 inches (30-46 cm) of snow. According to AccuWeather forecasters, several cities will have a shot at breaking various citywide records.

The last time a snowstorm unloaded upwards of a foot of snow in Detroit was back in 2015 when a storm from Feb. 1-2 dropped 16.7 inches of snow. That amount made it rank as the third heaviest snowstorm on record in Detroit. The top snowstorm still stands as the April 6, 1886, storm that unleashed 24.5 inches on the city.

What about Des Moines iowa or Omaha Nebraska?

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Looks like Southern Michigan will need to score big on the front/first wave.  Second wave might miss the area south.  

From GRR:

Our wave on the trailing cold front seems now to mostly stay south of the area but this is also related to that coupled jet so hard to say really how far north that will get. So for now we will keep our headlines as is.

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EAX having a hard time figuring out the 2nd wave.

For the second round of precipitation, the main upper shortwave
trough will begin to move across the middle of the country. At the
surface, a strong high pressure area will be moving southward. There
is very dry air associated with this high pressure area that will be
advecting into the northern half to three quarters of the forecast
area. This dry air may be too much to overcome for the lift
associated with the wave and as a result, the northern extent of the
snow area may be farther south. There remains considerable
uncertainty though regarding this. Most 12Z guidance seemed to
indicate more of a southward trend in this second precip area as the
dry air looked to dominate over the forcing. But some of the latest
18Z guidance casts some doubts about that. The 18Z HRRR and the NAM
3km both bring snow back into the area late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. That said, it still is more likely that the heavier snow
with this second round will be across the southern fourth of the
forecast area, mainly south of I-70.
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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I agree, you can't win them all...let them enjoy GHD-3???  Certainly is looking like a bonafide winter storm for the S MW region.  I can't remember a year where C IL/IN got hit with a significant snowstorm.  I know back in DEC 2000 there were many storms that hit their area but not as big as this one.  Congrats to those down south.

Not exactly the same trajectory, but hit both IL and IN just 8 yrs ago

20140103 IN TV map.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Enjoy the white gold to all of you who cash in on this system… Feeling a little salty about missing yet another system to the south while we get ready to “enjoy” a shot of unwanted bitter cold Arctic air with little to no snowpack.

Personally ready for the Winter of 2021-2022 to die a quick death.

 

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I echo the thoughts of James and Bryan above--- been a rough winter here for winter lovers- especially the snow. Enjoy the snow peeps to the S and E!!!!  Sending a little DSM magic your way!!!   black and white love GIF

FWIW- DSM is running about 2 degrees colder than progged and about 2 hours earlier so the CAA (at least here) is slightly ahead of schedule (NWS hourly forecast).

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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15 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Enjoy the white gold to all of you who cash in on this system… Feeling a little salty about missing yet another system to the south while we get ready to “enjoy” a shot of unwanted bitter cold Arctic air with little to no snowpack.

Personally ready for the Winter of 2021-2022 to die a quick death.

 

Exactly. This winter can move on to spring. 

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Radar looks beautiful and very explosive. Oh man, when all of this comes in as heavy snow...look-out!!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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EAX seems to be going with NDFD model the last few days as it resembles their snowfall maps the best.  The NDFD has been very consistent with these totals and in the AFD this afternoon they mentioned ratios being 15:1 around the KC area.

0z NDFD 10:1 map

1644019200-zFJyVCuEGP8.png

Up close KC

1644019200-aTQCuYUNdOo.png

QPF amounts

1644019200-PedY30UWPO0.png

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Check out the huge flake over S MI and also at Clinton's pl.  😄

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL102_1280x720.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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