2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX seems to be going with NDFD model the last few days as it resembles their snowfall maps the best.  The NDFD has been very consistent with these totals and in the AFD this afternoon they mentioned ratios being 15:1 around the KC area.

0z NDFD 10:1 map

Up close KC

QPF amounts

Very remarkable at how consistent these models were for days and days. Just amazing. This thing is a lock! Done!

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Very remarkable at how consistent these models were for days and days. Just amazing. This thing is a lock! Done!

Dry air still could be a problem with the 2nd wave so keeping my fingers crossed.

[tStacsh]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Very remarkable at how consistent these models were for days and days. Just amazing. This thing is a lock! Done!

I think this "busts" for SMI (except extreme SE)  Second wave might completely miss south.  By no means should I be calling it a bust though.  Because that's probably not the right term, just not the totals being shown.    Solid snows for the first wave 4-8" maybe a little more where it's banding for sure...Change over will take a bit.  Could be wrong, but I don't trust the Hi-res models. I don't see this as a "major" "epic" snow storm.  But maybe for the east side of the state.  

[Grizzcoat]

CAA really progressing faster than anticipated and hi rez models playing catch up-- might be a reason why NW MO is seeing less and less snowfall on each subsequent run of HRRR and even RAP.

[winterfreak]

Yeah, trends are not good on hi-res guidance.

[GDR]

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

EAX seems to be going with NDFD model the last few days as it resembles their snowfall maps the best.  The NDFD has been very consistent with these totals and in the AFD this afternoon they mentioned ratios being 15:1 around the KC area.

0z NDFD 10:1 map

Up close KC

QPF amounts

The NDFD (stands for National Digital Forecast Database) is essentially just the NWS forecasts plotted out. It’s based on model data but it’s not actually a model in and of itself. 

[winterfreak]

Don’t look at the HRRR if you live in KC.

[Clinton]

0z NAM with a heavy band of snow running from my place to Chicago and southern Mich.  Also some LES for @Tom

 

[shakjen]

Just got back into town and there is nothing hitting the ground in LaSalle, contrary to what the radars say. 

[Grizzcoat]

AVG temp/dewpoint depression in NW MO is about 15F. Not going to get accumulating snowfall until you get under 6 or so. Dry air is for sure winning out in that area for the time being.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

AVG temp/dewpoint depression in NW MO is about 15F. Not going to get accumulating snowfall until you get under 6 or so. Dry air is for sure winning out in that area for the time being.

0z NAM shows that

[Clinton]

Rain and sleet falling, temp down to 31.

[winterfreak]

Dusting on everything. Not to hopeful here.

[winterfreak]

A WSW for 2-4 inches lol.

[Stacsh]

Lol. Do hi-res models take in account that nothing reaches the ground?

[winterfreak]

Moderate to heavy snow. Grass is almost completely covered. Roads are getting there.

 

 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Moderate to heavy snow. Grass is almost completely covered. Roads are getting there.

 

 

Radar is looking good.  Good luck tonight.

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Radar is looking good.  Good luck tonight.

You too @Clinton. Time to watch the radar.

[Clinton]

Sleet has changed to big snowflakes and is accumulating quickly.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

What's going on here?

 

Tell me that's not over your house!

[winterfreak]

Nice dry slot right over mby.

[Hawkeye]

The deep moisture plume is veering east of KC.  It's just bad luck. 

[winterfreak]

Unbelievable.

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Dangerously close.  I'm just east of it.  near the red dot

Heard Gary say on TV that KCI may not receive any accumulations until 4 or 5am because of that dry area.

[Grizzcoat]

CAA has stopped for the time being or at least it's not as noticeable here at KDSM. Temp hovering at 16-17F and the dewpoint after crashing all evening has actually risen a degree in last hour. SCT021 layer has moved in and if I'am going to see any flurries it will be in the next several hours before the CAA commences once again. Call me a weenie, but any snow is better than being shutout. Maybe a candy coating???

[Tom]

It's ripping pretty good in the city near Wrigleyfield...that cut-off on radar is nasty over NE IL...nail biter up here to see if we even get to 3"....prob going to have to bank on the LES later tonight into tomorrow.  It seems to be looking better on the CAM's.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyville/?cam=wrigleyville

 

 

[Tom]

There seems to be some agreement that a solid Lake Plume develops later this evening that could potential wobble back n forth into NE IL for about 24 hours.  That would be something if it indeed develops.  When the models were predicting the last LES event about 24 hours out they began to lock in on the shift towards Chicago instead of NW IN.  I'm beginning to think that LOT may change their tune in tonights AFD.

 

[Tom]

06z HRRR still holding onto the idea that a solid lake plume just sits and pounds Lake/Cook/DuPage county....possibly into Will...Gosh I hope its right!

[Tom]

Latest 0z Euro...

[Tom]

@indianajohn @tbone8...how are you guys doing out there??  Radar is looking amazing for you guys...

[Tom]

@OKwx2k4...there is your snow buddy...hope you score big down there...

 

[Clinton]

Winter wonderland outside this morning, the snow is ripping and so is the wind.  It's going to be a hard snow to get a good measurement on but went on a walk this morning and I easily have 4 inches on the ground.  I have a nice band of heavy snow working through and will take some more measurements once daylight arrives.   

[Clinton]

Several reports of 5 to 6 inches in the Warrensburg and Sedalia areas, that's probably in line with what I have at the moment.  Radar looks good to add several more inches for round 1.

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Winter wonderland outside this morning, the snow is ripping and so is the wind.  It's going to be a hard snow to get a good measurement on but went on a walk this morning and I easily have 4 inches on the ground.  I have a nice band of heavy snow working through and will take some more measurements once daylight arrives.   

Congrats brotha!  Radar is looking fantastic and it also seems to be north compared to the modeling.   I don’t think we had models showing the snow shield poking into IA and S WI.

Southside of Chitown is getting pounded right now…man, those areas are in the zone right now.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Congrats brotha!  Radar is looking fantastic and it also seems to be north compared to the modeling.   I don’t think we had models showing the snow shield poking into IA and S WI.

Southside of Chitown is getting pounded right now…man, those areas are in the zone right now.

Thank you it is ripping right now.  Roads are terrible I just got done pulling a car out of the ditch right across from my house.  Very happy to have the rest of the week off to enjoy this and not have to drive.  Hope Chicago does well today!

[Tom]

I like the fact that LOT is more bullish on the LES set up and showing 2-5” for MBY.  Those may be on the lower end of totals IMO.  Isolated 6”+ look possible.  This LES set up is another rare opportunity for a long duration banding.

[Tom]

LOT's take on the LES...I got 0.5" so far and the snow has picked up in intensity...Let it snow!  ORD so far at 1.5" and they may do pretty good by this afternoon.  So far so good.

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

I like the fact that LOT is more bullish on the LES set up and showing 2-5” for MBY.  Those may be on the lower end of totals IMO.  Isolated 6”+ look possible.  This LES set up is another rare opportunity for a long duration banding.

 

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

LOT's take on the LES...I got 0.5" so far and the snow has picked up in intensity...Let it snow!  ORD so far at 1.5" and they may do pretty good by this afternoon.  So far so good.

The RAP really seems to be in line with the current radar trends down here.  I think that will bode well for Chicago.

Edited February 2, 2022 by Clinton

[FV-Mike]

Really coming down here. Radar looks good. I think N IL will do well

 

Glad to see the KC folks getting a good snow!