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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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25 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Really coming down here. Radar looks good. I think N IL will do well

 

Glad to see the KC folks getting a good snow!

Parts of KC have had several inches of snow while other parts haven't had much at all.  The snow was very banded to my west, hopefully the guys on here were in some of those bands.

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Judging by radar returns and nowcast, looks like we will see at least 2" here where I am at.  Should snow most of the day.  Heavier returns from GR to the south.  I think totals of 5-6" may reach to our county border.   Which would put the Euro as the winner.  GFS looking like a turd right now on the northern flank of the system, at least in Michigan.  

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It's a beautiful winter wonderland out there today!  19F and stiff northerly wind creating some blowing and drifting.  Gorgeous powder and easy to shovel.  I'm up to 1.8" and its been coming down at a moderate rate.  Nice sized medium flakes...I love watching it snow during the day but esp when they are colder storms like this one.  Southern metro is doing very good with widespread 4-8" totals already.

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3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Looks like 2-4 from the the river south in KC metro. Classic KC dry slot that cut off snow for hours last night. Very disappointing event. 

That just stinks.  For a storm that has been forecasted for a week, you sure would have hoped for more.  I feel for you in the missing of storms, I could write a book.  

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

LOT's take on the LES...I got 0.5" so far and the snow has picked up in intensity...Let it snow!  ORD so far at 1.5" and they may do pretty good by this afternoon.  So far so good.

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Looks like parts of DuPage will do well with this setup 

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12 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Snow is really winding down here.  I haven't measured, but I'm pretty sure my prediction a couple of days ago that KC wouldn't even muster 4 inches ended up being true even though less than 12 hours before the start of the snow, we were still supposed to get 15 inches.  Such a joke.  I think KC may very well be the worst place to live if you like snow.  I can't imagine anywhere else gets teased more than we do.  I've lived in six states, and I've never seen blown snow forecasts like we have here.  

Edit:  I realize there are plenty of places that get less snow than we do. But most of those places, you don't really expect to get much snow.  Used to be, you could expect to get a few good snows per year here. 

When you say you were still supposed to get 15" just 12 hours ago, was that the NWS forecast?  Or where did that come from?  I don't recall ever seeing 15" for KC on any forecast maps posted here.  

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

When you say you were still supposed to get 15" just 12 hours ago, was that the NWS forecast?  Or where did that come from?  I don't recall ever seeing 15" for KC on any forecast maps posted here.  

It wasn’t. It was 6-10 on the map they released last night. The WSW was for 5-12.

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22 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Snow is really winding down here.  I haven't measured, but I'm pretty sure my prediction a couple of days ago that KC wouldn't even muster 4 inches ended up being true even though less than 12 hours before the start of the snow, we were still supposed to get 15 inches.  Such a joke.  I think KC may very well be the worst place to live if you like snow.  I can't imagine anywhere else gets teased more than we do.  I've lived in six states, and I've never seen blown snow forecasts like we have here.  

Edit:  I realize there are plenty of places that get less snow than we do. But most of those places, you don't really expect to get much snow.  Used to be, you could expect to get a few good snows per year here. 

There was never a forecast that said KC would get 15 inches. Sure, some models may have shown that, but that's where forecasting comes into play. The NWS, though, was forecasting 6-10 as if last night which is going to be wrong, so they did mess up. 

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2 hours ago, winterfreak said:

Looks like 2-4 from the the river south in KC metro. Classic KC dry slot that cut off snow for hours last night. Very disappointing event. 

It wasn't a "dry slot". The dry slot is usually a stream of dry air that cut off mid level systems will wrap in from the southwest... this system is not like that. There were lots of gaps in the radar echos because what's producing the lift isn't a classic storm, it's more of a stream of little disturbances combined with baroclinic zones in the the low levels of the atmosphere. 

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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Everyone on this forum puts stock in each and every run as though it's the gospel.  People may say they don't in retrospect, but in the moment, people (myself included) freak out every 6 hours when a new model run comes out . I didn't actually expect to get 15 inches of snow.  But no matter how you cut it, this was a major disappointment, which is usually the case for KC snowfall forecasts.  

 

I grew up in Kansas City all of my life... I have seen more than 10 inches maybe two times since 2010.. it is so difficult to get that much snow. A lot of the forecasts started to go down in terms of totals last night... nothing much more than 5 or 6 inches especially on the southeast side was really expected. 

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7 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

It wasn't a "dry slot". The dry slot is usually a stream of dry air that cut off mid level systems will wrap in from the southwest... this system is not like that. There were lots of gaps in the radar echos because what's producing the lift isn't a classic storm, it's more of a stream of little disturbances combined with baroclinic zones in the the low levels of the atmosphere. 

I knew it wasn’t really associated with a single area of low pressure. Got it. I stand corrected. I’ll post less and read more.

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

It's not so much about KC not getting big snows.  It's more about big snows being advertised (even if only by the models), and then busting at literally the last minute. Or even regular snows being advertised and not happening.  Here's a post I made almost exactly a year ago on a thread in this same forum. Someone asked me how MBY had done with the snow around Valentines Day: 

"This has been as close to a complete bust as possible without actually being a complete bust.  According to all the models, KC is done.  And we got MAYBE an inch despite all models as of this morning giving us between 3 and 7 inches today/tonight.   It's remarkable how bad the models are and how well KC avoids snow."

I feel your pain. You can't consider it a bust when only one or a few models show a lot more than what fell--- the on air mets were also saying 2-6 ish. That one model you showed is the Canadian deterministic model, a model not known to be very accurate. You've gotta think about the vast number of models we have access to-- not just deterministic models, but their ensembles too. Euro has 60 members or something like that... gfs as 30 members.. and those ensembles weren't showing these 15 inch totals as north of as Atchison. By Sunday and Monday, if I saw more than 6 inches north of I-70, I know it was wrong because there was a considerable trend south all day Monday by many of the models. 

Again, I feel your pain.. I'm in STL now, so I'm shocked I may see close to 10 inches. I can barely believe it. Hang in there! 

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34 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

It's not so much about KC not getting big snows.  It's more about big snows being advertised (even if only by the models), and then busting at literally the last minute. Or even regular snows being advertised and not happening.

Yep...this is pretty much the norm and has been for years and years.

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Nearly 3" so far as the snow has let up in intensity...yesterday the snow pack took a hit and melted down to about 2" with spotty grass spots.  It has now turned into a landscape of white gold.  I'm looking forward to the LES later tonight into tomorrow.  Some places on the south side already nearing double digits. @Jayceereporting 7.5" in Tinley Park...that area was under some heavy banding earlier this morning.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I gotta a few pics to share, the snow is winding down and by my unprofessional measurements I ended up with 7 to 8 inches.  My daughter says 8 sounds better lol. Very hard to get a good measurement where I live with it being so open.

 

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Looks great!  How many cattle do you raise?  Just curious if your in that business or not.

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2 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

Been pretty good so far.  Closing in on 6”.  Very nice event so far (best of the season obviously).  Would love to finish it off with some LES.  

I'm glad to here bud...I was worried like you of suppression but we were able to get something decent out of this storm.  Let's see what the lake has in store for us.

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1 hour ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

I grew up in Kansas City all of my life... I have seen more than 10 inches maybe two times since 2010.. it is so difficult to get that much snow. A lot of the forecasts started to go down in terms of totals last night... nothing much more than 5 or 6 inches especially on the southeast side was really expected. 

I grew up in the Warrensburg area my whole life as well.  I agree with you that double digit snowfalls here are rare, but what seems to be missing the last 20 years are the 6-8 inch type snows.  In the 80's and 90's we would get at least 1 of these a year.  I feel like something has changed with our weather or we are long over do for some snowy Winters depending on how you want to look at it.  My mother grew up in Independence and has pics of over 30 inches on the ground where snow piled up on previous snow, that hasn't happened since.  The only time to compare it to would be Feb of '11.

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Just cleared the driveway (with a shovel) and I have 2″ of new snow fall. The snow is not real wet so a shovel will do for most. So while not the big storm some were thinking it is still winter out and there is fresh snow on the ground to start the new month. At this time there is light snow falling with a temperature of 28.

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