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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I grew up in the Warrensburg area my whole life as well.  I agree with you that double digit snowfalls here are rare, but what seems to be missing the last 20 years are the 6-8 inch type snows.  In the 80's and 90's we would get at least 1 of these a year.  I feel like something has changed with our weather or we are long over do for some snowy Winters depending on how you want to look at it.  My mother grew up in Independence and has pics of over 30 inches on the ground where snow piled up on previous snow, that hasn't happened since.  The only time to compare it to would be Feb of '11.

The winters of 2009-10(Xmas blizzard) and 2012-13(thunder snow) were pretty great locally. Deep snow cover and wall to wall cold from December-April. But yeah, even moderate snows seem so rare the last 7 years or so. But, it’s only Feb 2nd. Let’s see what happens.

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So, what works for Chicago and Chedda Curtain Peeps = a mega FAIL over here in far SEMI where we endure hour after hour of mega-dust and 32.5F struggling to put down our first 1" 4 hrs after change-over? This is why Detroit is NOT known to reel-in SW flow Big Dogs. The last-minute NW "bump" is prolly a 95th percentile likelyhood in the history of snowstorms for this region. I'll be lucky to see 4-6" total by next Tuesday! November's first Clipper was far more serious "storm" than this thing, lol. 

Knew last evening when I stepped out to my car after work and saw 48F on the old car thermo that today was on life-support. You don't want to go into a storm with temp above 40F. Absolute max is 40F for a good outcome. Mid-40s = extremely sketchy outcome. Really tossing dice. Upper 40's = LOLz shoulder season outcome at best, and I don't mean 11-22-15 which was the one single exception of my lifetime to buck every rule of thumb in this respect. 

Ok, well I'm home for a tasty lunch and y'all enjoy your storm west of here. Share photos, post record numbers, yada yada yada..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The situation in KC sounds a lot like the New Years debacle in OMA/LNK, though not quite as bad. Glad you guys could still score 4-5" at least. Dry air and supression is the theme this winter. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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My area of Central Nebraska averages about 30" of snow a year.  Last year we had close to 50" of snow, but this year as of today we've had 6.5".  We really fluctuate from year to year.  Usually, we have at least 1 or 2 storms a year that put down 6-8" or in some years a blizzard with 9-12" or more.  So to go this long with virtually nothing is very odd.  

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16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My area of Central Nebraska averages about 30" of snow a year.  Last year we had close to 50" of snow, but this year as of today we've had 6.5".  We really fluctuate from year to year.  Usually, we have at least 1 or 2 storms a year that put down 6-8" or in some years a blizzard with 9-12" or more.  So to go this long with virtually nothing is very odd.  

Number of 2"+ events at LNK 

2018-19: 12 

2019-20: 1 (in April)

2020-21: 8 

2021-22: 0 

My sig below tells the rest of the story.....lol. The past 4 winters have certainly been all or nothing in Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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49 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I grew up in the Warrensburg area my whole life as well.  I agree with you that double digit snowfalls here are rare, but what seems to be missing the last 20 years are the 6-8 inch type snows.  In the 80's and 90's we would get at least 1 of these a year.  I feel like something has changed with our weather or we are long over do for some snowy Winters depending on how you want to look at it.  My mother grew up in Independence and has pics of over 30 inches on the ground where snow piled up on previous snow, that hasn't happened since.  The only time to compare it to would be Feb of '11.

What do you think of tonight into tomorrow snow is going to do. Some short range models (RAP/HRRR) have 2 to 4 inches all the way up into Columbia MO and long range models (NAM/GSF) have 6 to 7 inches 

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49 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Number of 2"+ events at LNK 

2018-19: 12 

2019-20: 1 (in April)

2020-21: 8 

2021-22: 0 

My sig below tells the rest of the story.....lol. The past 4 winters have certainly been all or nothing in Lincoln. 

Those were some good and bad years for sure.  I may have said on here previously that from Jan. 24 - Feb. 15, 2021, I used my snow blower 14 times.  Not that it snowed 14 times, but some were multiple times during a storm, or winds blowing snow back across the sidewalks and my driveway.  I have used it once this year on Dec. 3rd for a 2.5" snow.  The other 2 snows were 1-3" but very dry and the wind blew a lot.  Just a little shoveling in a couple of spots.  

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, what works for Chicago and Chedda Curtain Peeps = a mega FAIL over here in far SEMI where we endure hour after hour of mega-dust and 32.5F struggling to put down our first 1" 4 hrs after change-over? This is why Detroit is NOT known to reel-in SW flow Big Dogs. The last-minute NW "bump" is prolly a 95th percentile likelyhood in the history of snowstorms for this region. I'll be lucky to see 4-6" total by next Tuesday! November's first Clipper was far more serious "storm" than this thing, lol. 

Knew last evening when I stepped out to my car after work and saw 48F on the old car thermo that today was on life-support. You don't want to go into a storm with temp above 40F. Absolute max is 40F for a good outcome. Mid-40s = extremely sketchy outcome. Really tossing dice. Upper 40's = LOLz shoulder season outcome at best, and I don't mean 11-22-15 which was the one single exception of my lifetime to buck every rule of thumb in this respect. 

Ok, well I'm home for a tasty lunch and y'all enjoy your storm west of here. Share photos, post record numbers, yada yada yada..

called it

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, what works for Chicago and Chedda Curtain Peeps = a mega FAIL over here in far SEMI where we endure hour after hour of mega-dust and 32.5F struggling to put down our first 1" 4 hrs after change-over? This is why Detroit is NOT known to reel-in SW flow Big Dogs. The last-minute NW "bump" is prolly a 95th percentile likelyhood in the history of snowstorms for this region. I'll be lucky to see 4-6" total by next Tuesday! November's first Clipper was far more serious "storm" than this thing, lol. 

Knew last evening when I stepped out to my car after work and saw 48F on the old car thermo that today was on life-support. You don't want to go into a storm with temp above 40F. Absolute max is 40F for a good outcome. Mid-40s = extremely sketchy outcome. Really tossing dice. Upper 40's = LOLz shoulder season outcome at best, and I don't mean 11-22-15 which was the one single exception of my lifetime to buck every rule of thumb in this respect. 

Ok, well I'm home for a tasty lunch and y'all enjoy your storm west of here. Share photos, post record numbers, yada yada yada..

might end up on the lower forecasted total of 8 inches here in lapeer, but points south and east aren't getting the double digit totals that were forecasted unless that NW bump occurs. I'm kinda glad I don't have the time to invest myself into models and storms like I use to, otherwise I would be pretty upset right now 😂

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

I gotta a few pics to share, the snow is winding down and by my unprofessional measurements I ended up with 7 to 8 inches.  My daughter says 8 sounds better lol. Very hard to get a good measurement where I live with it being so open.

 

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Very nice pics amigo! Keep posting....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Been real busy today, so just got a chance to look outside and man ..its ripping. Blowing and drifting snow as well. From what I can see, I will say that several inches have fallen so far. Radar looks awesome and loaded w/ snow coming here towards S MI.  Temps are in the 20s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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21 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I think this "busts" for SMI (except extreme SE)  Second wave might completely miss south.  By no means should I be calling it a bust though.  Because that's probably not the right term, just not the totals being shown.    Solid snows for the first wave 4-8" maybe a little more where it's banding for sure...Change over will take a bit.  Could be wrong, but I don't trust the Hi-res models. I don't see this as a "major" "epic" snow storm.  But maybe for the east side of the state.  

Yes, I agree. Have to clsely watch the second wave.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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FWIW the radar echoes associated with the 2nd wave or main storm are way further NW than the hi-res models are showing.  My WSW was extended until noon tomorrow but the weather service only forecasting 1-2 additional inches.  The Hi-Res models have me on the NW edge of any accumulating snow, however the radar showing snow filling in between Witchita and Topeka got my attention.

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Looks like I am in the 6"  or so range thus far and still a lot more hvy snow to come. Radar looks sweet! Will take measurements at some point.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Brant Miller is suggesting a band of 4-15” into COOK and parts of East Lake county.  He’s using the high resolution rapid refresh model.  Crazy if this happens.

 

ORD: 8”

Irresponsible.  He did something similar with a synoptic event years ago and Jerry Taft (rip) called him out for it and even had a good chuckle at his expense.  

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

image.thumb.png.9cbba77f0626cee559d7c5e6340b7c6f.png

I'd estimate 4" fell here in Canton. But due to slop-fest conditions it looks and feels like a solid 3-3.5" tally. 

All that to say that map is scary accurate as the 4" line runs right thru the far NW corner of Wayne Cnty. exactly where I sit. Same story all winter, we are included in the decent snows in a forecast as storm is approaching, but it somehow finds a way to dump just 1 or 2 counties north of here. 

Edit-Nov 27th keeping the title "largest storm of the season"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Normal snow for GR.  About 3-4”.  Better than nothing.  But meh.  Let’s go spring!  Second half of February looks warmer.  

So, we managed to reach the 5" mark here this evening. Matches the Clippers total, lol. Ofc, with all the compaction of 4:1 ratio slopfest this morning, depth is pretty much the 3.5 to 4" we had prior to all this hoopla that some mega-dog was brewing for the "eastern sub". This place has been in a 2-4" snow depth rut all winter that it seems impossible to break out of. Talk about repeating patterns, lol. I'm beyond wanting to fast-forward to spring. At least my health continues to improve, but the cold is not helping at all in that dept. More like I am making progress in spite of it. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

So, we managed to reach the 5" mark here this evening. Matches the Clippers total, lol. Ofc, with all the compaction of 4:1 ratio slopfest this morning, depth is pretty much the 3.5 to 4" we had prior to all this hoopla that some mega-dog was brewing for the "eastern sub". This place has been in a 2-4" snow depth rut all winter that it seems impossible to break out of. Talk about repeating patterns, lol. I'm beyond wanting to fast-forward to spring. At least my health continues to improve, but the cold is not helping at all in that dept. More like I am making progress in spite of it. 

Can't win 'em all my friend.  I know it must be really frustrating seeing 10-15" totals on the ensembles, not to mention the lolipop totals from the operational runs and end up below forecast.  It's happened here before and will again.  The forecasters did a great job locally and pretty much came to fruition as predicted.  ORD (which is 5 miles from me) picked up 5.6" while I scored just about 3.5" on the north side of Des Plaines but the local report is showing 4.2".  Maybe my measurement was off due to the blowing/drifting.  Nevertheless, I'm pretty stoked about the outcome.  How many storms have we tracked that went farther north and hit the NW burbs?  Gosh, I can't even county how many instances this has happened.  The South side finally had their winter storm.

 

The razor sharp gradient was very evident.  The city and south really scored big time. MDW set a daily snowfall record (9.5") and broke the old record which was back during the GHD-1 storm (9.0").  MDW's final tally was a whopping 11.0".  More lake effect snow today/tonight. This storm will end up being a S MW/SW MI Ground Hog Day Storm to remember....and to be continued down south where our friend @OKwx2k4is getting whalloped with snow.  Surprised to see how much snow fell south of GRR and into Lansing, MI with 8-13" totals.  These fronto set ups are tough to forecast from my experience in tracking systems with the models we have nowadays.  To much going on with jet dynamics, etc that the models can't predict where the precip shield ends up going.  Anyway, on to the next big one!

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Can't win 'em all my friend.  I know it must be really frustrating seeing 10-15" totals on the ensembles, not to mention the lolipop totals from the operational runs and end up below forecast.  It's happened here before and will again.  The forecasters did a great job locally and pretty much came to fruition as predicted.  ORD (which is 5 miles from me) picked up 5.6" while I scored just about 3.5" on the north side of Des Plaines but the local report is showing 4.2".  Maybe my measurement was off due to the blowing/drifting.  Nevertheless, I'm pretty stoked about the outcome.  How many storms have we tracked that went farther north and hit the NW burbs?  Gosh, I can't even county how many instances this has happened.  The South side finally had their winter storm.

 

The razor sharp gradient was very evident.  The city and south really scored big time. MDW set a daily snowfall record (9.5") and broke the old record which was back during the GHD-1 storm (9.0").  MDW's final tally was a whopping 11.0".  More lake effect snow today/tonight. This storm will end up being a S MW/SW MI Ground Hog Day Storm to remember....and to be continued down south where our friend @OKwx2k4is getting whalloped with snow.  Surprised to see how much snow fell south of GRR and into Lansing, MI with 8-13" totals.  These fronto set ups are tough to forecast from my experience in tracking systems with the models we have nowadays.  To much going on with jet dynamics, etc that the models can't predict where the precip shield ends up going.  Anyway, on to the next big one!

 

 

These models (globals) misled everyone, including the NWS pro's. How else do we go from them issuing maps showing 12-16" totals that end up 5-6" totals. I really thought we had put these kind of busts behind. But apparently Ma Nature wanted to make a point, and she did it here in SEMI today at our expense. At any rate, remember that ICON map showing the gradient of like 3-12" across this county. Not quite right, as the 12" amounts were up by KFNT and Saginaw, but a lot closer to the truth than the endless 19-21" amounts the GFS was showing for cycle after cycle. Glad you got something decent on the NW side, and Chicago in general had a huge success reeling this one in last minute. Climo gonna climo, lol. It was nice to see all the double digit hits up thru SMI, even if not here in mby. That was a nice single day storm, especially for non-LES locales like Lansing at nearly 13". Big big day for them. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

These models (globals) misled everyone, including the NWS pro's. How else do we go from them issuing maps showing 12-16" totals that end up 5-6" totals. I really thought we had put these kind of busts behind. But apparently Ma Nature wanted to make a point, and she did it here in SEMI today at our expense. At any rate, remember that ICON map showing the gradient of like 3-12" across this county. Not quite right, as the 12" amounts were up by KFNT and Saginaw, but a lot closer to the truth than the endless 19-21" amounts the GFS was showing for cycle after cycle. Glad you got something decent on the NW side, and Chicago in general had a huge success reeling this one in last minute. Climo gonna climo, lol. It was nice to see all the double digit hits up thru SMI, even if not here in mby. That was a nice single day storm, especially for non-LES locales like Lansing at nearly 13". Big big day for them. 

Your old stomping grounds at Kalamazoo did good with a solid 7-10" snowfall...anyway, glad your health is getting better.  Enjoy the snow that you got and hope it hangs around for a while till Spring arrives...maybe, if its not another endless winter into Spring.

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Its been more than 15 years since I've heard it roar and snow like this. At least more than 15 years.

These days right here. That's why. That's all. I know it's so silly, but when I look outside on nights like tonight and it looks like a snowacane globe and I realize that I'm in Oklahoma and it's silly, I know. I just thank God for making me know what size I am and how very very special it is to still be thought highly of here and cared about after 6 years of my disappointments to you, failures beyond belief and disappointment in chasing hope sometimes like these little snowflakes flying by right now. If I was false hope, I'm so sorry and thank you for this moment. I've been checked out a bit after the warmest December in a millennium. Lol.

Thsnk you all. Every one of you. Worst or first. I'm blessed beyond belief.

Its a snowglobe outside! 😊😁

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13 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its been more than 15 years since I've heard it roar and snow like this. At least more than 15 years.

These days right here. That's why. That's all. I know it's so silly, but when I look outside on nights like tonight and it looks like a snowacane globe and I realize that I'm in Oklahoma and it's silly, I know. I just thank God for making me know what size I am and how very very special it is to still be thought highly of here and cared about after 6 years of my disappointments to you, failures beyond belief and disappointment in chasing hope sometimes like these little snowflakes flying by right now. If I was false hope, I'm so sorry and thank you for this moment. I've been checked out a bit after the warmest December in a millennium. Lol.

Thsnk you all. Every one of you. Worst or first. I'm blessed beyond belief.

Its a snowglobe outside! 😊😁

I'm so happy to hear your enjoying the snow my friend!  Good days are coming.  Take some pics during the daytime.  I'd love to see how the landscape looks down there.  What a storm, huh?  I can't believe its been 15 years!  That beats some of the members on here who are struggling to see a big snow.  Temps in the mid 20's and heavy snow falling...I can only imagine what it looks like down there in the open fields.

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm so happy to hear your enjoying the snow my friend!  Good days are coming.  Take some pics during the daytime.  I'd love to see how the landscape looks down there.  What a storm, huh?  I can't believe its been 15 years!  That beats some of the members on here who are struggling to see a big snow.  Temps in the mid 20's and heavy snow falling...I can only imagine what it looks like down there in the open fields.

Will do when I get the chance to get out later today or Friday. Should be fun!

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